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| --Tech & Moderator Notes |
| Of Course Israel Will Say No |
| 2014-01-20 |
| by Steve White An editorial yesterday in the Jerusalem Post, commented on here at the Burg, posited in an interesting question: can Israel say 'no' to the United States? At one level the answer is an obvious 'yes', they can say 'no'. Israel is an independent state. But then the hand-wringers start with the idea that while theoretically Israel can do so, in practice Israel is beholden to the U.S. for political support, military aid and free navigation of the eastern Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea. The U.S. keeps the various BDS butters at bay, and keeps the Europeans from withdrawing their support and recognizing an independent Palestinian state. Without these Israel will surely shrivel and die over time, so Israel must follow the U.S. lead. If John Kerry (he of the chin, the rich wife and the aristocratic upbringing, without any of the advantages these normally convey) demands that Israel accept the American position in the ongoing 'peace' negotiations with the Palestinians, then Israel must do so. Refusal means the loss of American support with all the aforementioned consequences, after which come the boils and locusts. Today Palestinian state, tomorrow moose and squirrel, the theory goes. As the editorial correctly points out, Israel could say no to Mr. Kerry. Israel has successfully defied past American presidents including Ronald Reagan, we are told. Several Israeli prime ministers have refused to acquiesce to American demands when doing so would have compromised Israel's core principles starting with its right to exist. Israel did not come to an end on any of these occasions. Further, Mr. Obama will be gone in less than three years. While the Democratic party clearly has allowed its anti-Israel wing to gain precedence (Hillary Clinton would push Israel at least as hard, and Elizabeth Warren would go full-keffiyeh), there is no guarantee that the Democrats will be in charge of anything in 2017. These facts alone would stiffen the spine of an Israeli prime minister, even a Labour one, but there's more. In a year or so Israel will be completely independent of foreign sources of natural gas, thanks to the new finds in the off-shore fields in the Med. That will translate into independence on energy sources except for heavy oil and gasoline. Energy independence will necessarily make Israel's foreign policy more independent of Washington. But the real reason Israel is about to say 'no' to Mr. Kerry can be found by simple strategic analysis, the sort that true world statesmen do routinely (perhaps the Harvard Kennedy School could offer a remedial course to the Secretary of State). The question is simple one: what are the threats to Israel's security over the next decade, which is as far into the future as one can realistically see? Not Egypt -- Egypt is imploding, the Muslim Brotherhood is for now contained, and the military rulers of Egypt will not go after Israel unless they need a Malvinas/Falklands incident to cover their asses. It could happen but it isn't likely. Egyptian leaders will be too busy trying to feed their people and loot what's left of the wealth in the country to go after Israel. Further, one should remember that the Egyptian military now depends almost exclusively on American military equipment and western advisors; changing that requires time and money. As long as they depend on the U.S., Egypt will not wage an offensive war. Not Syria -- Syria is in the midst of full civil war, one that has dragged in Iran, Lebanon and Iraq. As odious as Bashir Assad is, he's too smart to provoke Israel until the war is over. Not Saudi-controlled Arabia -- the King and princes there play a long game. They may not like the Zionist entity but they find Israel to be useful, particularly with a belligerent, Shi'a dominated Iran threatening to take over the Persian Gulf. As the Saudis have seen, it's easier to rail at the evil Joooz, and to use them for propaganda purposes, than it is to fight them. Not Jordan -- Jordan is a poor country with a modest military and multiple threats to its existence. Syria is to the north, the Jordanian population is 60% Palestinian, and al-Qaeda is working quietly to establish a beachhead. The last thing King Abdullah wants is a war with Israel. Not Lebanon -- see Syria. That leaves two threats to Israel's existence: the Palestinians and Iran. The latter is providing the former with cash, weapons and support such that Hamas in Gaza is now a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The laughable and ineffectual Palestinian Authority can't pay its own people without the support of the Europeans, the U.N. and America. Israel has a firm grip on the West Bank, and should the Palestinians try a third intifada, Israel would be ready -- it has had the experience of dealing with Palestinian insurrection in the past. Would an intifada be a serious event? Without question. Can Israel handle it without American support? Yes it can. Would Iran really use nuclear weapons against Tel Aviv? One cannot reject the possibility completely as the ayatollahs and Revolutionary Guard are not completely sane by western standards. But they are sane by their own standards, and it's very unlikely that they would risk a nuclear retaliation -- one that Israel says would certainly come -- and the loss of major Iranian population centers. Iran also plays a long game. Suppose this strategic analysis is correct. Suppose also one accepts that the current Israeli military out-guns any single opponent, and is at parity or better against even a combination of opponents. Suppose further that the Israel political situation is such that while the major parties will squabble over almost anything, the one thing they'll be united on is resisting any existential threat to their country. In that situation, saying 'no' to John Kerry is not only the smartest option, it's virtually the only option. The western press and western governments then will mewl, and both Mr. Kerry and President Obama will bluster and threaten. But they can't make good on their threats, and soon they'll be gone. Israel knows this. Of course they'll say no. |
| Posted by:Steve White |
| #7 Excellent post. |
| Posted by: KBK 2014-01-20 19:10 |
| #6 One should not underestimate the Obama administration's leverage. The US executive branch could threaten to share intelligence on Israel with Iran (and Syria/Hezbollah/Hamas) and it could refuse to veto a Security Council resolution imposing legally binding sanctions on Israel. None of these actions would require congressional approval nor would they be illegal under US law. Both would do grievous harm to Israel. Israel must hope that the political consequences in the US would be unacceptable for the Obama administration. So far the administration has gotten away with a lot, so Obama&Kerry might be ready to accept this risk as well. |
| Posted by: Elmerert Hupens2660 2014-01-20 15:34 |
| #5 Actually, I think the Paleos will say NO to Jawn. |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2014-01-20 14:36 |
| #4 Putin seems to be able to get things done. Then, there is China. Israel has options. Now, bammy and co. need to show off their big arms. Not heeling on command will have consequences, such as trade definitions and the, uhem, unexpected, leaking of intelligence. I sincerely hope Israel chooses and can weather topical storm Kerry and the obama appointee title surges, but knowing that Sderot has a different meaning of a reality program called duck dynasty, get y'all taken care of proper. There is no guarantee that even a pro-Israel president in 2017 will have a functioning US Economy to do anything with. Tea leaves in '14, sure, but as it seems our ship of state is has its rigging for manatee humping rather than turning Cape Horn. |
| Posted by: swksvolFF 2014-01-20 12:48 |
| #3 can and should say "NO!" |
| Posted by: Frank G 2014-01-20 11:59 |
| #2 Israel can't say 'no' to the US, but it can and must say 'no' to Obama / Kerry. Just 3 years to go gents. |
| Posted by: Iblis 2014-01-20 11:09 |
| #1 From your keyboard to God's ears, Dr. Steve. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2014-01-20 08:01 |