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India-Pakistan
North Waziristan appears close to full-blown conflict
2013-12-26
[DAWN] GUNS have fallen silent in Mirali -- a bustling town 35km to the east of North Wazoo's regional headquarters of Miranshah
... headquarters of al-Qaeda in Pakistain and likely location of Ayman al-Zawahiri. The Haqqani network has established a ministate in centered on the town with courts, tax offices and lots of madrassas...
, but now with rows of burnt down and bombed shops and houses.

The sudden flare-up and military's fierce response to a suicide kaboom at one of its main camps in Khajori on Dec 18 have shown that the situation in North Waziristan remains volatile, dangerously close to a full-blown conflict.

That the grinding of the peace processor would be illusive was known to all but what many people fail to understand is just how complex it would be, given the large number of myrmidon groups with different agendas and goals.

A ceasefire has now been in effect. But the question is for how long. The military is edgy. For far too long, they say, they sat out there, taking casualties.

Since September, they say, a total of 67 improvised explosives devices were planted to harm them; 40 were neutralised, 27 went kaboom!, resulting in deaths and injuries to about a hundred of their men.

Since 2009, compared with other tribal regions, the casualty rate the military has suffered is the highest in North Waziristan and eleven times the casualties they have taken in South Waziristan. Patience has worn out.

"The question is for how long," asked one military officer. "It's better to go out and die fighting them than take casualties sitting inside our camps."

In Mirali the fighting has stopped but the situation remains fluid. The military, despite its furious response, says it is committed to the politicianship's plan to initiate peace dialogue with snuffies in Waziristan.

Commitment notwithstanding, no-one in the know is willing to put his bottom dollar on the success of the yet-to-start grinding of the peace processor. Such is the complexity of the situation. There are so many groups and with so varied objectives that no matter whom the government speaks to sue peace, any of the groups not happy with the process can light a match to burn down the entire process. Consider what happened on December 18. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) posted an English translation of its statement on the Jamia Hafsa Urdu Forum on Tuesday, saying that the military responded with air and ground attack after a group of "frustrated fighters" had bombed a military convoy.

In the event, it said, fighters from the IMU, the TTP and Ansarul Mujahideen hit back to 'defend civilians'.

Two IMU fighters were killed and 22 foreign "refugees" maimed. It put the civilian casualty figures at 70. The military, the IMU said, had suffered more than 300 casualties.

The military rubbishes the claim and insists that not a single soldier was killed or injured in the follow-up action which, it says, left more than 30 foreign snuffies dead, most of them Uzbeks.

This is what Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif
... served two non-consecutive terms as prime minister, heads the Pakistain Moslem League (Nawaz). Noted for his spectacular corruption, the 1998 Pak nuclear test, border war with India, and for being tossed by General Musharraf...
and his pointman for the grinding of the peace processor in North Waziristan, Chaudhry Nisar, will have to grapple with: a plethora of myrmidon groups ever keen to attack security forces and an increasingly edgy military. And they may not have much time at hand.

No-one seems to be in control in North Waziristan. Together with the military and the paramilitary, the political administration is confined to the fort in Miranshah. With curfew clamped, the military moves only on what is called the Road Opening Days, suffering roadside kaboomings and ambushes.

As for the myrmidon groups, they are many. Government officials put the total number of local myrmidon groups operating in North Waziristan, including the Haqqani network, at 43. Dattakhel-based Hafiz Gul Bahadar has the highest number of groups affiliated with him -- 15, followed by 10 independent groups. There are six TTP-affiliated groups. The Punjabi Taliban have four groups.

In addition, there are 12 foreign myrmidon groups, including Al Qaeda.

With a combined strength of roughly 11,000 fighting men, the Pak and foreign myrmidon groups represent a formidable challenge, officials acknowledge.

Given the enormity and complexity of the problem, the lack of trust between the snuffies and the state and prevalent scepticism within the civil-military establishment regarding success and sustainability of the proposed grinding of the peace processor, the path to peace, if and when taken, would not be easy.
Posted by:Fred

#9  I never said anything about supporting "moderate". What I did was list a set of potential scenarios and outcomes. It's what I was trained to do.

I don't do recommendations.
Posted by: Pappy   2013-12-26 22:16  

#8  Pappy, I think the route of supporting "moderate" has been traveled---more than once, too.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2013-12-26 21:21  

#7  the ISI has to be soooo conflicted. One wonders when their Great Games dreams will consume them with fire
Posted by: Frank G   2013-12-26 19:47  

#6  The problem is that the Paks do not really have the capability. Nor, do I think, the Pak military has the will. They've not been in a full-blown, long-term conflict for decades. What is being classed as "military losses" at this point are poorly-armed, poorly funded and poorly-used Frontier Constabulary. The Pak Army has no experience in either "arc-light" or a protracted campaign in mountainous territory. Indeed, I think a full-blown assault against North Waziristan would likely shatter the Pak military into several groups, among them a radical Islamist faction.
Posted by: Pappy   2013-12-26 19:44  

#5  If/when #1 happens, #1a should be a series of Arclights if the Paks have a lick of common sense. Which I doubt.
Posted by: Barbara   2013-12-26 19:42  

#4  And I'm supposed to care because ....?

You don't have to.

But let's run down a scenario.

1. The Paks lose control of North Waziristan.

2. The Islamists gain a base of operations.

3. The objective could then be one or any of the following:

Gradual capture of South Waziristan and the other northwest territories.

Increased attacks within the urban areas of Pakistan with the objective of full-blown guerilla warfare.

Launching platform to retake Afghanistan after the US/NATO leaves.

Longer term:

Possible collapse of the current oligarchic Pakistani government, with replacement by either a more Islamic-sympathetic government, an openly radical Sunni Islamist government, or an Islamic-nationalist government.

Potential loss of control of Pakistani nukes.

Long-term:

Increased security threats to India and the Kashmir region.

Increased influence by China and/or Saudi Arabia/Gulf nations.

Potential radical Islam threat increase to Bangladesh and the SE Asian nations.

Increased/perceived increase threat to Iran, the former (muslim-dominated) Soviets.

And that's in just five minutes of thinking.
Posted by: Pappy   2013-12-26 19:35  

#3  And I'm supposed to care because ....?

Sorry, my give-a-shit meter's broken.
Posted by: Barbara   2013-12-26 19:03  

#2  That Idiot standing behind the RPG will hortly go to pair-o-dice.
Posted by: Redneck Jim   2013-12-26 18:25  

#1  Bet the casualties are to locals and to paramilitary troops rather than to regular Pakistani army troops
Posted by: john frum   2013-12-26 09:36  

00:00