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Africa North | |||||||
Five Lessons from Egypt and the Arab Spring | |||||||
2013-08-07 | |||||||
h/t Gates of Vienna 1. Don't Believe Anything You Hear ...Middle Eastern politics is reality-selective, it's conspiratorial and it's based around shaky alliances between mortal enemies that are constantly falling apart. ...everything you hear coming out of Egypt is meaningless. Egyptian politics is completely cynical and completely unaware of its own cynicism. Everyone manufactures their own propaganda and conspiracy theories. ...Not only does no one there mean what they say, but they don't even know that they don't mean it.
Democracy in the Middle East is just another means of political change. It's not any different than mob action, a coup or an invasion. It's just a way that one government replaces another.
3. Everyone Will Always Hate America The one thing that everyone in Egypt can agree on is that they hate America. The Muslim Brotherhood hates America. Period. Not for anything we've done. This hatred is widely shared in Egypt. It will always be widely shared in Egypt. Denouncing America is one of the safest political positions to take. It's the Egyptian equivalent of motherhood and apple pie. 4. Fanatics and Democracy Don't Mix One of the fondest myths of democracy promotion is that bringing terrorists into the political process moderates them. It doesn't. John Kerry headed out on yet another peace process mission is a reminder of the futility of such thinking.
...The three options are still military rule, strongman or theocracy. There is no fourth option. The Arab Spring tilted the rule of strongmen and soldiers toward theocracy. That outcome was as modern as the Caliphate. Now the military has once again stepped in. Eventually there will be a strongman. Or a theocracy. Or a junta. And they will go on overthrowing each other Everything else is only window dressing or a disguise for where the power actually goes. | |||||||
Posted by:g(r)omgoru |
#2 Not only does no one there mean what they say, but they don't even know that they don't mean it I think it was T.E. Lawrence who first commented on the Arab mind's astonishing capability to hold two opposing thoughts as equally true, at the same time. |
Posted by: Pappy 2013-08-07 11:36 |
#1 Democracy in the Middle East is just another means of political change. It's not any different than mob action, a coup or an invasion. It's just a way that one government replaces another. No different than anywhere else. |
Posted by: Glenmore 2013-08-07 07:40 |