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Africa North
Egypt has less than two months imported wheat left
2013-07-11
CAIRO - Egypt has less than two months' supply of imported wheat left in its stocks, ousted President Mohamed Mursi's minister of supplies said, revealing a shortage more acute than previously disclosed.
Unexpectedly!
Speaking to Reuters near midnight in a tent at a vigil where thousands of Mursi supporters are protesting against the Islamist president's removal, former Minister of Supplies Bassem Ouda said the state had just 500,000 metric tons of imported wheat left. Egypt usually imports about 10 million metric tons a year.
And now, having chased off the tourists, Egypt has no way to pay for any of that imported wheat. Nice going Mr. Morsi...
Two and a half years of political turmoil have caused a deep economic crisis in Egypt, scaring away investors and tourists, draining foreign currency reserves and making it difficult to maintain imports of food and fuel.
The political turmoil did not scare away the tourists. The murders and rapes, however...
Egypt is the world's largest importer of wheat, half of which it distributes to its 84 million people in the form of heavily subsidized saucer-sized flat loaves of bread, which sell for less than 1 U.S. cent.

Bread has long been a sensitive issue in Egypt. Former President Hosni Mubarak faced unrest in 2008 when the rising price of wheat caused shortages.

Although it also grows its own wheat, Egypt needs huge quantities of foreign wheat with higher gluten content to make flour suitable for bread.
Why can't Egypt grow suitable wheat? Nile valley is fertile enough.
The ousted government closely guarded figures about its foreign grain stores even as a shortage of cash halted its imports.
Because they knew the average people could understand this, and that understanding would lead to problems, like getting the Brøderbünd tossed from power. Which is exactly what happened...
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Thursday that civil unrest and dwindling foreign exchange reserves meant Egypt could have serious food security concerns. Its import requirements next year would be equal to this year, it said.
And the year after, and the one after that...
Since Mursi was toppled last week, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have promised $12 billion in cash, loans and fuel, which economists say buys Cairo several months of breathing room to fix its finances.
After which they're flat busted again...
Egypt had halted its purchases of international wheat since February - its longest absence from the market in years - until the eve of Mursi's overthrow, when the state grain buying agency, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), bought wheat under Ouda's instruction.

"In spite of all the political differences between the parties, the international price of wheat was very nice, we bought about 180,000 metric tons of wheat," Ouda said.

Mamdouh Abdel Fattah, vice chairman of GASC, was not immediately available to comment.

Apart from imports, Ouda said the government had bought 3.7 million metric tons of home-grown wheat from a harvest that is now finishing. It still has 3 million metric tons of domestic wheat left in its stores, having begun milling the domestic crop in May.

Egypt normally mixes its domestic wheat with equal parts foreign wheat to produce flour. Ouda said Mursi's government had tried to increase the ratio of domestic wheat, which would make the country less dependent on imports.

"Our plan was to increase the contribution of the local wheat. We hoped to reach 60 percent," Ouda said.

Mursi's government said on June 26 it had 3.613 million metric tons of total wheat but did not reveal how much of that was imported.

Earlier this week a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) attaché in Egypt said domestic wheat stocks would last through October at current consumption levels. It gave no estimate for when foreign wheat would run out. In the past, Egypt maintained stocks of both imported and local wheat that would cover at least six months' needs.

While the Gulf Arab states' cash injection is expected to help Egypt replenish its wheat stocks, it will need to start buying soon and in large quantities.

"I think the aim of the Arab countries is to make sure Egypt doesn't fail with respect to food security and financial commitments with the international banking system, so I would think they will push to get the aid through quickly," said Kisan Gunjal, economist and food emergency Officer at the FAO.

The USDA attaché's report said it takes Egypt 2-3 months from announcing a tender to getting the wheat distributed to flour mills.
Posted by:Steve White

#9  "Control. All that mud is so inconvenient."

Well, KBK, they've sorta got control now - of a bunch of inconvenient, soon-to-be-starving, pissed-off people.

I'll order more popcorn.
Posted by: Barbara   2013-07-11 21:58  

#8  Those F-16s may come in handy against the Ethiopians. Rumor has it the Egyptian Air Force is watching Dambusters on Netflix.
Posted by: SteveS   2013-07-11 21:54  

#7  Control. All that mud is so inconvenient.

Then there's the new Ethiopian dam, which makes things even more inconvenient. Gonna need all those AK-47s.
Posted by: KBK   2013-07-11 21:26  

#6  Tell me again why building the Aswan High Dam and cutting off the annual silting/fertilization by the flooding Nile (which worked for millenia) was a good idea?
Posted by: Barbara   2013-07-11 18:19  

#5  Kansas wheat crop 80% of normal.
Posted by: bman   2013-07-11 16:00  

#4  Kan-ban. With Saudi dole, the cupboards will remain just full enough.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2013-07-11 15:42  

#3  I remember watching some BBC/PBS show on North African agriculture maybe 15 years ago. I was appalled at the acres of land under cultivation vs the population. Now it has got to be worse. No idea how they even fed %10 then no idea how they feed anybody now. I compare scrub land like that to my cousin's subsistence level ranch in Montana of 28,000 acres. All of North Africa's cultivated land is only maybe 100 times her land. Some land is much better than hers and some worse so her's is a good average. Her land supports 4 people raising yearlings and a little hay and some oil you can't eat. Run the math.
Posted by: 3dc   2013-07-11 15:14  

#2  Interesting. I was under the impression that most of the crowds were out there because their rations were cut back or became unaffordable.
Posted by: Ptah   2013-07-11 15:08  

#1  "The people have no bread? Well, let them eat F-16s! Or sell them on eBay or sumthin'."

-- Marie Antoinette (slightly paraphrased)
Posted by: SteveS   2013-07-11 14:51  

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