Wednesday's scenes in the central town of Qusair, which was retaken by
Hereditary President-for-Life Bashir Pencilneckal-Assad
One of the last of the old-fashioned hereditary iron-fisted fascist dictators...
's forces after a two-week battle, certainly represent a significant defeat for the rebels, who are outgunned, divided among themselves and still uncertain of gaining wider international support.
It is too early to assess whether the tide has turned definitively in favour of the Assad regime, though Qusair is the latest in a string of victories. Most independent experts still believe there is little chance -- an estimated 90,000 have already died since March 2011 -- of an outright military victory by either side. But the president is likely to feel emboldened, and is prepared for a long haul.
"Qusair was billed as being of strategic importance," said a diplomat who monitors the crisis closely. "Its loss is a blow for the rebels and a welcome boost for the regime. But it is not Aleppo or Homs. These things ebb and flow."
The timing, however, means that it will now be even harder to find a negotiated solution to the Syrian conflict. On a day when senior US, Russian and UN diplomats met in Geneva to discuss convening a new peace conference, now put back from this month to July at the earliest, prospects for meaningful talks between the government and its opponents look poorer than ever.
Syria's well-oiled state media machine was busy trumpeting the achievement of its "heroic" army in restoring "security and stability" to Qusair, which lies near the Lebanese border on the route that links Damascus to Homs and the heartland of the Assad family's minority Alawite sect. The victory was a "clear message" to all involved in aggression against Syria, said the army, especially what it called -- in a characteristic flourish of pure propaganda -- "the Zionist enemy and its agents."
It made no reference to Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia militia now fighting openly with Assad and risking importing an increasingly sectarian war back across the border. Its role in the fighting, now out in the open, has been crucial.
Qusair is the most important gain made by the regime in recent months. New tactics and offensives on new fronts -- the rural Ghota area east of Damascus, Jobar on the edge of the city, around Deraa in the south and Idlib in the north -- have all seen rebel fighters checked or routed.
Qusair's capture cuts off an important supply line linking the rebels with their supporters in Leb. Conversely, it secures access for Hezbollah into Syria. "Qusair has fallen," proclaimed jubilant posters in the Dahiyah, the Beirut suburb that is the Shia militia's stronghold.
But the government still needs to take control of the area around Qusair. "In terms of wider strategy they need the countryside -- and that means dozens of villages which will be hard to take because they will have to disperse their forces," predicted the London based Syrian commentator Malik al-Abdeh.