You have commented 339 times on Rantburg.

Your Name
Your e-mail (optional)
Website (optional)
My Original Nic        Pic-a-Nic        Sorry. Comments have been closed on this article.
Bold Italic Underline Strike Bullet Blockquote Small Big Link Squish Foto Photo
China-Japan-Koreas
North Korea Preps for War
2013-03-20
The Daily NK contains two articles, based on reporting from contacts in North Korea, that describe the living and food availability conditions during the national mobilization exercises in progress.

They confirm that a partial mobilization of manpower has occurred since 11 March, unlike any in a long time. The only work teams still functioning are those devoted to goods for the armed forces. Production teams that make goods for civilians are participating in or are supporting the training.

Food allocations are based on production output by workers. Closure of a production line for military training terminates food allocations for the workers on that line. Mobilized workers are fed by the army but their families at home must fend for themselves or receive special allocations from the government or pilfered food from the army.

The contacts in North Korea report serious food shortages among the families of the mobilized workers, some of whom have threatened protests. In one major city on the China border, the government made a special allocation to avert a riot.

There are many hardships to living in North Korea, but food shortage is a category of hardship that has prompted public riots in the past that required troops to suppress. Government action to avert them by limited food allocations is an indication of the gravity of the internal situation. The leadership cannot afford to divert military resources to riot control when it is risking general war.

What the reports confirm is that the exercise is a high cost activity because no civilian trade goods are being produced and food is dedicated to the military first. The economic and social costs described in the articles indicate the exercise is more than just training. It is rehearsal and preparation for an action that risks a wider conflict.
Posted by:tipper

#11  If the Muslim Brotherhood had a chance to take over North Korea, Champ would be in.
Posted by: Gerthudion Therong9915   2013-03-20 13:41  

#10  IBID
P2K's comments set the context increasingly here at home, but I'm not so sure hte one-trick pony Norks know that. SO setting the new edge in their never-ending game of payola brinksmanship may actaully go too far and spark the South into an action that crescendo's into a major fracas.
When the Nork Generals sense that their game is threatened, either they do Pudgey in, or go for broke. While the Septegenarians in their ranks have a sense of the true limits of their military, young turks may actually buy their internal BS and think they can redo 50 since Champ really won't pull the trigger?
Posted by: NoMoreBS   2013-03-20 13:09  

#9  I think that is indeed the objective. However, I think they're miscalculating with regard to Park -- she can't back down gracefully at the very start of her administration.
Posted by: Steve White   2013-03-20 12:44  

#8   Norks may be bluffing themselves right into a shooting war.

It's more instigation than bluff. The NorK's objective appears to be to get South Korea (and to a lesser extent, the US) to shoot first or to back down and treat with them. Methinks the latter is the actual objective.
Posted by: Pappy   2013-03-20 10:16  

#7  We may about to witness what happens when bureaucrats living in their own fantasy bubble suddenly do something really really stupid. BTW, that applies to multiple parties in this case.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2013-03-20 10:13  

#6  Norks may be bluffing themselves right into a shooting war. Pudge won't be able to back down if there's an exchange by an itchy-fingered Nork General
Posted by: Frank G   2013-03-20 09:52  

#5  Issue isn't what Obama will do, it's what the SKors will do, and whether Obama will (or can) restrain them. The new ROK president simply cannot allow Northern aggression to stand; she's done otherwise.
Posted by: Steve White   2013-03-20 08:59  

#4  Kimmie v2.0 recognizes the weakness of US leadership and shall exploit same....

Posted by: Uncle Phester   2013-03-20 08:54  

#3  Yeonpyeong Island, Baengnyeong Island, Daecheong Island will most likely be seized by North Korea. Obama will do nothing about it.
Posted by: Gerthudion Therong9915   2013-03-20 02:37  

#2  Then let us give them all they can handle.
Posted by: SAM New Delhi   2013-03-20 02:27  

#1  'rehersal'

Yeah, like Operation AI was a 'rehersal' for WWII.

I hope my battlebuddies at Camp Humphries have their Sierra in a sack and all squared away. The clock's started.

Countries in NK's situation don't disrupt their centrally-planned economy and civilian food deliveries lightly.

Got your bug-out bag ready?

Orion
Posted by: Orion   2013-03-20 01:19  

00:00