You have commented 338 times on Rantburg.

Your Name
Your e-mail (optional)
Website (optional)
My Original Nic        Pic-a-Nic        Sorry. Comments have been closed on this article.
Bold Italic Underline Strike Bullet Blockquote Small Big Link Squish Foto Photo
Syria-Lebanon-Iran
A relatively rational Iran?
2012-12-10
From The New York Times Haaretz:
The question of whether Iran is a rational player has for some time been a critical focus of international discussion about how to respond to Tehran's nuclear program. In Israel and abroad, those who oppose attacking Iran's nuclear sites highlight the rationality of the Islamic Republic's leadership -- something they say suggests that deterrence can be relied upon if and when Iran finally possesses nuclear weapons. Those who support targeting Iran's nuclear sites claim, among other things, that there is a big question mark regarding the degree of rationality of the Iranian leadership. As a result, they say, it would be difficult, if not impossible, to deter Iran's leaders from eventually using nuclear weapons against Israel.

Since the 1979 Islamic revolution, and particularly during the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-88, Iran has proven that it is more often driven by pragmatic policy considerations than by ideology-based decision making. However, the Iranians have not always judged correctly the reactions of their opponents, nor do they appear to be as risk-averse as Western countries, even when the lives of their own people are at stake. A question mark about the soundness of Iran's judgment arose last year with the attempt on the life of the Saudi ambassador to Washington - an act that, if carried out, could have led to war with the United States.

It's possible that Iran would act against Israel, despite the risks to its own survival, for two main reasons. The first is the central role of religious-messianic considerations among the Iranian leadership. The second reason is that this regime has pledged itself to Israel's annihilation and is acquiring the means to accomplish it. The question whether the Iranians are rational seems to split Israeli decision-making circles.

When using the term "rationality," one needs to recognize that it can have a relative component - for example, two rational actors could reach different conclusions when faced with the same circumstances and data. Human beings, including leaders, are often hard pressed to choose between alternatives and may be influenced by ideology, intuition, culture and political and institutional biases. Iranian leaders thus could be no less rational than their Israeli or American counterparts, but may reach different conclusions when confronting the same circumstances.

Thus, even if we assume that Iran is a rational actor, it is difficult to understand the calculations that guide its leadership, and to predict its decisions and behavior in crisis situations. In addition, there is incomplete information about the decision-making process in Iran, as well as the quality of information that the supreme leader enjoys.

For reasons besides the degree of rationality of the Iranian regime, political factors, geographical proximity and technological issues will also complicate the stability of a future mutually deterrent environment between Israel and Iran. There is also the possibility that Iranian nuclear weapons could be used without the explicit intention of the leadership. Iran has not yet institutionalized its nuclear doctrine and system of operations and has a history of a defective chain of command that could lead to unauthorized use. The first years after achieving nuclear capability are the most dangerous and portend crises, which can be accompanied by the threat of escalation because of the temptation of others to destroy the capability as long as it is nascent, and the possibility of using it in a conventional conflict (use it or lose it ).

There is a need for further examination of scenarios in which Iran eventually becomes nuclear, even if doing so would be interpreted by some as accepting a nuclear Iran. It is insufficient to consider Iran's rationality in terms of either yes or no. Rather, we must seek insight into Iranian nuclear decision making based on its own sense of rationality. This effort could help us identify essential preparations and arrangements on our part that are not yet being considered.
Posted by:Pappy

#3  Their younger generation are rational and want freedom.I see the same thing in Egypt.
Posted by: Flineger Elmilet5035   2012-12-10 07:59  

#2  Most people are essentially cowards. There is nobody in the EUroweeny who isn't. The UN is worthless. They always were.

The US is led by a man who wouldn't fight for his own mother. ( but have you seen his mother? I wouldn't fight for that either). So what does that leave us?

Israel can't carry the fight alone. Its too big a risk to start a war with no backing except guys wearing yellow suits and pink ties.

The US no longer has balls and the days of the Big Johnson are as dead as Johnson himself. Its all Bush's fault and Katrina too.
Gay marriage and legalized Pot are what we got. Ain't it Hot?

Iran is going to get the bomb, then they will get cruise missiles. And then they will tell you what's what ,and slap you in the snot.

And you will bend over because that is what most of you are. Have a good day, Dwayne.
Posted by: Threater Flusoper9823   2012-12-10 04:42  

#1  Iran has received much criticism over the years for its alleged support + propagation of International terror - IMO its fair to say that Iran recognizes it will again be heavily criticized, iff not attacked, iff Radical Islam's Hard/Burqua Boyz go de facto Nuke-WMD, hence its hallowed "JAPAN/EGYPT" NUCLEAR MODEL.

Iran does desire to ultimately be the world's first ISLAMIC/MUSLIM GLOBAL NUCLEAR SUPERPOWER, for which possession of NucWeaps by Iran will be required - however, Iran also does NOT desire to be attacked while its NucProg + future Nuclear Arsenal is still budding, hence again its reliance for time being on NUKE-ARMED PAKISTAN, REGIONAL + TRANS-REGIONAL PRO-ISLAMIST, PRO- NUCLEAR "ARAB SPRINGS", + ANTI-US NATIONS to deter or defend from outside attack until Iran is ready.

Lest we fergit, as the US + Western World
"steadily decline", IRAN + MUSLIM WORLD + CHINA ASCEND.

Yes, Iran is being quite rational, but NOT because it is interested in peace or the status quo or "post-US" Empire.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2012-12-10 00:24  

00:00