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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Mowing the lawn
2012-11-29
[Ynet] Analysis: IDF aware Operation Pillar of Defense in Gazoo not a long-term solution to Paleostinian rocket fire on south

After eight days of intense aerial bombardments of terrorist infrastructure in the Gazoo Strip, Israel agreed to an Egypt-mediated ceasefire, effectively marking the end of Operation Pillar of Defense. Despite the fact that over 70% of Israelis were against the ceasefire deal, the IDF raced to declare victory after the 9 pm deadline came into effect, touting its many, albeit minor, military achievements. And again, despite popular opinion, the IDF's case is strong.

Consider as a contrast the Second Leb War, widely perceived as a failure by the Israel public, and confirmed as such by the government-appointed Winograd Commission. In 2006, the IDF invaded Leb with a number of ambitious goals, including the toppling of Hezbollah and the engendering of long-term change in the Lebanese political system. Indeed, the loftiness of the goals rendered IDF action void ab initio, and doomed to insignificance even the military's considerable tactical victories.

Learning from its mistakes, for Operation Pillar of Defense the IDF set itself modest, achievable military goals. The first, tactical, was to deplete Hamas, always the voice of sweet reason,' stores of rockets and weapons systems.

The second, strategic, was to recreate a comprehensive deterrence capability that would cause bully boyz in the coastal enclave to hesitate before renewing rocket salvoes against Israel's south.

According to the IDF, during the course of the eight-day operation, Israel targeted:

o 30 senior Hamas and Islamic Jihad
...created after many members of the Egyptian Mohammedan Brotherhood decided the organization was becoming too moderate. Operations were conducted out of Egypt until 1981 when the group was exiled after the liquidation of President Anwar Sadat. They worked out of Gaza until they were exiled to Lebanon in 1987, where they clove tightly to Hezbollah. In 1989 they moved to Damascus, where they remain a subsidiary of Hezbollah...
terrorists
o 19 high-level command centers
o 980 underground rocket launchers
o 140 smuggling tunnels
o 66 tunnels used for terrorist operations
o 42 operation rooms and bases owned by Hamas
o 26 weapons manufacturing and storage facilities

To add a little bit of context, the IDF launched far more Arclight airstrikes in Gazoo during the first few days of Operation Pillar of Defense than during the same initial period of Operation Cast Lead of 2008-2009. The recent operation decimated Hamas' and other terrorist organizations' stores of Qassam rockets and mortars, while all but completely obliterating their Iranian-made Fajr-5 missiles.

On the diplomatic front, if Israel secures Egyptian cooperation over weapons smuggling into Gazoo, Hamas could find it exceedingly difficult to resupply and rearm. These represent incontestable tactical scores for the IDF, and could be considered, ipso facto, justification for Operation Pillar of Defense.

Which leads us to the IDF's deterrence capabilities: The IDF displayed the effectiveness of its budding UAV program, dubbed "Canopy of Fire," or hupat esh in Hebrew. The program is comprised of constant aerial surveillance of terrorist infrastructure in the Gazoo Strip.

Buzzing drones flying kilometers above the enclave use high-resolution cameras to monitor individual bully boyz conducting military operations, at times allowing the IAF to conduct rapid pinpoint strikes against the operatives. The program is increasingly successful, and will eventually threaten terrorists' ability to fire rockets into Israel without being targeted by an IAF strike.

Of course, the success of the operation will ultimately be judged in the coming weeks and months based on the stability of the ceasefire deal. If Israel has in fact managed to renegotiate the "rules of the game" to prohibit rocket fire on Israel's south, the operation will be deemed a success.

But be clear, there are very few within the IDF, if any, who believe that Operation Pillar of Defense is a long-term solution to Paleostinian rocket fire. Most expect the ceasefire to break down eventually, as Defense Minister Ehud Barak said, within "nine days, nine weeks, or more."

Far from being a regional game-changer, the operation was viewed as a tactical necessity, one which has frustrated the increasingly brazen terrorist attacks emanating from Gazoo, and which will have to be repeated in weeks, months, or years down the line.

It is viewed as both a sequel to Operation Cast Lead and a prequel to what will invariably be the next IDF operation in the Strip, and the next, until a diplomatic solution can be found.

In IDF slang, the process is known as "mowing the lawn." Only time will tell when the weeds will grow back.

Yoni holds a BA degree in Psychology with a minor in Political Science, from the University of British Columbia. He is currently working as a journalist in Israel, and his expertise lies in policy, conflict and Middle East affairs. Yoni was called up for reserve duty in the IDF's Strategic Division at the start of Operation Pillar of Defense.
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