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By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
By nearly all accounts now former leader of the Mexican left Manuel Andres Lopez Obrador is a tough talking fighter from the south. He had fought hard for the Mexican left since he joined the Partido de Revolucion Democratica (PRD) in the 1990s. He fought when he lost the 2006 presidential election president Felipe Calderon Hinojosa by organizing protests, and he fought the 2012 election as well.
But Lopez Obrador also has a temper, according to English and Spanish language news reports, and often that temper will lead him into decisions that benefit only him inasmuch as he claims they are for Mexico.
In 2011, while leading a tour throughout Mexico on behalf of his Movimiento Regeneracion Nacional (MoReNa), he laid out his intentions for the 2012 election by demanding the two main leftist political parties, the PRD and Partido Trabajo (PT) stay away from alliances with the right, specifically Partido Accion Nacional (PAN). At the time he demanded and he received a pure leftist alliance that he claimed would give the Mexican left power it had sought since 1994, and its split from the PRI.
When the issue of electoral fraud appeared in the aftermath of the 2012 election, however, he had a problem. In 2006, Calderon Hinojosa's margin of victory was less than one percent, an easy to challenge issue before the national electoral tribunal, the Tribunal Electoral del Poder Judicial de la Federacion (TEPJF).
In 2012, Lopez Obrador's problem was that, despite clear evidence of vote buying by the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) through the use of gift cards, the margin was victory of president elect Enrique Pena Nieto was large enough that unless it could be proven vote buying was pervasive and nationwide, Pena Nieto would be declared the winner.
The last week of August, Pena Nieto was in fact declared president elect of Mexico by the TEPJF. Lopez Obrador, keeping to his temperment, told his followers he would refuse the recognize the result and planned protests throughout Mexico.
The president of PRD, Jose Zambrano Grijalva, having a political organization to run, had other plans. Just before the August 29 TEPJF decision to declare Pena Nieto president elect, he had met with legislative leaders with the PRD and PAN to map out a strategy in dealing with a severely weakened PRI in the Chamber of Deputies. When the decision was made to declare Pena Nieto president elect, despite his vocal misgivings about the decision, Zambrano Grijalva said that PRD politicians in the statehouses were prepared to work with the new president, as they are legally required to do.
That declaration if Organizacion Editorial Mexicano columnist, Adriana Moreno Cordero, is to be believed, impelled Lopez Obrador to make his decision to leave the PRD/PT alliance and to push his own organization, MoReNa, as his political party.
Zambrabo spent a week releasing tweets and editorials disclaiming Lopez Obrador's decision would eventually hurt Mexican left. But what is emerging now is that, despite a strong showing in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, the only thing that will hurt the Mexican left will be the Mexican left.
How well a legislative coalition with PAN will hold will depend on PRD and PRI. PAN is a minority party with the best role it can aspire being as spoiler. Th coalition will hold also depending on how radical a reform agenda president elect Pena Nieto will advance. So far his reform proposals to include reduction on the size of the Chamber of Deputies have long been on PAN's agenda, and have been so far conciliatory, not surprising given how small PRI's numbers are in both legislative houses. That reform should continue easily and may well even pass before Calderon leaves office.
The storm clouds appearing over this coalition is Ricardo Monreal, Lopez Obrador's campaign coordinator, and federal deputy from Zacatecas state.
Monreal heads up the independent Movimiento Ciudadano (MC) organization which aligned itself with the PRD and PT for the purposes of the 2012 federal election. Since Lopez Obrador's split from PRD/PT/MC, it is unclear where he will turn. For now, Monreal is solidly in Lopez Obrador's corner. But, his current agenda threatens to sink the current united front against the PRI.
Monreal, a former governor of Zacatecas state and a trained lawyer, is a very smart, if not one of the smartest political operatives in Mexico. Just prior to the second presidential debate he had claimed that the Mexican left was seeing the possibility of real gains in the national legislature, a statement which turned out to be true, and a result for which he can claim credit.
Why his single minded pursuit of impeachment proceeding against the nine judges of the TEPJF is congruent to PRD's legislative gains is a mystery. Zambrano Grijalva still can influence a substantial chunk of Mexico's left, especially in the Chamber of Deputies. It is unlikely that Monreal can sway sufficient numbers of deputies to his cause even if PRD deputies were as well disposed, since neither PRI nor PAN deputies are likely willing to swing for impeachment, if they can't exact a political cost -- even one PRD deputies are willing to pay.
In the coming weeks will it will be fascinating to see how well Zambrabo Grijalva will deal with the current political crisis, and whether not calling crisis a crisis will even work to his favor.
Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Rantburg.com