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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Israel's Emergence As Energy Superpower Making Waves
2012-07-03
By Walter Russell Mead
Key points below. See link for further details, among them Vladimir Putin in a yarmulke praying at the Wailing Wall.
Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir famously lamented that Moses led the children of Israel for forty years of wandering in the desert until he found the only place in the Middle East where there wasn't any oil.

But could Moses have been smarter than believed? Apparently the Canadians and the Russians think so, as both countries are moving to step up energy relations with a tiny nation whose total energy reserves some experts now think could rival or even surpass the fabled oil wealth of Soddy Arabia
...a kingdom taking up the bulk of the Arabian peninsula. Its primary economic activity involves exporting oil and soaking Islamic rubes on the annual hajj pilgrimage. The country supports a large number of princes in whatcha might call princely splendor. When the oil runs out the rest of the world is going to kick sand in their national face...
Actual production is still miniscule, but evidence is accumulating that the Promised Land, from a natural resource point of view, could be an El Dorado: inch for inch the most valuable and energy rich country anywhere in the world. If this turns out to be true, a lot of things are going to change, and some of those changes are already underway.

OPEC's power to dictate world prices is likely to decline as Canadian, US, Israeli and Chinese resources come on line. In fact, the Gulf's most powerful oil weapon going forward may be the ability of those countries to under-price rivals; expensive shale oil isn't going to be very profitable if OPEC steps up production of its cheap stuff.
Iran can't -- their extract able oil reserves are running out using current technology, and they haven't the money or the skill to upgrade...
Another big loser could be Turkey.
An outcome devoutly to be wished.
For years the Kemalist, secular rulers of Turkey worked closely with Israel, and the relationship benefited both sides. Under the Islamist AK party, that relationship gradually deteriorated.

But if Israel really does emerge as a great energy power, and a Russia-Greece-Cyprus-Israel energy consortium does in fact emerge, Turkey's ambitions to play a larger role in the old Ottoman stomping ground of the eastern Mediterranean basin will have suffered a significant check.

The US-Israeli relationship will also change. Some of this may already be happening. Prime Minister Netanyahu's evident lack of worry when it comes to crossing President B.O. may reflect his belief that Israel has some new cards to play.
Or at least will soon have new cards. In the meantime, he knows exactly what President Obama is, and how the honourable gentleman is constrained by an Israel-loving Congress. While he may personally feel less constrained to appease the electorate after the election -- win or lose -- he will still have to work with or around Congress.
An energy-rich Israel with a lot of friends and suitors is going to be less dependent on the US than it has been -- and it is also going to be a more valuable ally.
Posted by:trailing wife

#9  What will the Marxist EUSSR economies produce that the Israelis will want to buy?

(1) Security for gas fields. If it's owned solely by Israel, there will be shahids in motor boats buzzing around like flies. That's before we consider what the crazy pasha of Istanbul might do. But, if part is owned by Russia...
(2) Maybe we'll want to buy Russian planes---sans electronics/software, of course. Maybe their AA rockets---to combine with Green Pine.
(3) We should bet Obama won't get reelected?
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2012-07-03 15:54  

#8  The drilling company that made the most recent discovery was ATPG.

The company announcement is here.

It was just one well (the Shimshon- hebrew for Sampson) at this time. However, the hydrocarbon zone was pretty big. They will have a first actual estimate of the recoverable resource as soon as they redo their geo and seismic modeling. However, later estimates will require other wells and measurements during production testing.

Still, given that Europe needs natural gas badly (the high cost of nat gas in Europe is one of the things holding back the economy of several countries), this is a big deal.
Posted by: lord garth   2012-07-03 14:24  

#7  It's amazing the line that forms to kiss your ass when you have oil.

And if the Muzzies run out and leave Israel owning the export market, then Europe will rediscover its love of nuclear power.
Posted by: Slineter Big Foot3417   2012-07-03 11:02  

#6  Israel will continue to need arms from the West.
Posted by: JohnQC   2012-07-03 09:16  

#5  The problem is this... What will the Marxist EUSSR economies produce that the Israelis will want to buy?
Posted by: Bright Pebbles   2012-07-03 09:00  

#4  The stakes are not small: the offshore Levantine Basin (which Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, Israel and even Gaza will all have some claim to) is believed to have 120 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and “considerable” oil.

Syria, Greece, Gaza,Lebanon, Turkey? Syria is too busy killing citizens. Greece is broke and trying to figure out how to reclaim the good life--retirement at age 52. Gaza is too busy hating the Jews and waiting for Iran to fulfill its promises of wiping out Israel. Lebanon always has Hezbollah working in the background. Turkey is too busy moving away from secularism an towards fundamentalism. Looks like it is Israel's game.
Posted by: JohnQC   2012-07-03 07:49  

#3  Oh the irony if true. Imagine the knicker twisting going on in Europe as the hated Jews become the most viable oil supplier.

European anti-semitism comes back to bite them in the ass?
Posted by: AlanC   2012-07-03 07:17  

#2  Putin has really made some strong advances lately. Big push for some time. This could change things in this area of the world. I have read that Israel my become a world banking center like Switzerland.
I'd like to see Romney slim down and do a photo op with Putin riding a horse. That would stir things up in the world. Get some of that gravitas.
People like Cher, Babs and Looney Clooney would cry foul. They hog the market on ham bones.
Posted by: Dale   2012-07-03 07:11  

#1  I'm still waiting to be accosted by people collecting charitable contributions for starving Saudis.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2012-07-03 05:26  

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