By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
Following the second week and the first full week of campaigning, polling data shows that Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) presidential candidate Enrique Pena Nieto continuing to hold a commanding lead over his rivals, more than 20 points over Partido Accion Nacional (PAN) candidate Josefina Vazquez Mota, according to Milenio news daily.
 Enrique Pena Nieto |
Vazquez Mota's campaign, already suffering from campaign and press gaffes in the first few days of the campaign, has begun to alter its basic strategy by going negative on Pena Nieto, with ads that began to show up on the internet almost a week ago. The results from the change in strategy has yet to appear, or if it has, it has had scant effect on voters' preferences.
 Josefina Vazquez Mota |
Last week's polling data showed Vazquez Mota with 30 points and Pena Nieto with 50 percentage points. A week later Pena Nieto's polling position has increased two points while Vazquez Mota's has declined by 1.5 percentage points. Vazquez Mota's rival, leftist coalition candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is trailing at 18 percent, down one percentage point from a week ago.
PAN's new found strategy is partly because of the efforts of PAN president Gustavo Madero Munoz, who was brought on board the PAN campaign last week along with Ernesto Cordero. Madero presided over the general collapse of PAN's fortunes in several state elections last summer, one of which -- in Mexico state -- saw the PRI candidate for governor overwhelm his rivals by a factor of almost three to one.
 Gustavo Madero Munoz |
Madero's efforts later that year in Michoacan yielded a much closer race, though PAN still lost Michoacan to PRI. That election, held last November, was touted by some news organizations as a bellwether for PRI fortunes in 2012. The PRI candidate won by a razor-thin less than 42,000 votes, and PRI failed to capture a majority in the state Chamber of Deputies.
Madero at the time had the advantage of PRI president Humberto Moreira, a leader so flawed and troubled it was hard to see how PRI even won in Michoacan. Moreira was replaced in December by Pedro Coldwell, a far more formidable leader, as it has turned out.
This time round Madero has no similar advantage, and the new negative campaign, which focusses on Pena Nieto's poor record while governor of Mexico state, could well backfire on PAN.
Even so, Madero apparently is aware that under the right circumstances going negative can work, although it may not win Los Pinos for PAN.
The Mexican general elections will be held July 1st, or about 75 days from now.
Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Rantburg.com