The small district in the central city of Homs had become a symbol of the almost year-long uprising against the regime of
Hereditary President-for-Life Bashir Pencilneckal-Assad
Supressor of the Damascenes...
But after being besieged and bombarded for nearly four weeks, rebels staged what they called a tactical withdrawal from the battered district in the face of an all-out offensive by Assad's forces.
"The regime has only proven the obvious: a balance of power that leans heavily in its favor militarily," said Peter Harling of the International Crisis Group, arguing that "regime victories are only very temporary."
He said the problem is not confined to a military win at Baba Amr or elsewhere, but is related to the inability of the regime to solve the crisis that has pitted it against "hundreds of thousands, if not millions" of Syrians, Harling said.
Armed with very little, rebels and deserters defended Baba Amr during 26 days of bombardment, but as the feared Fourth
Armored Division led by Assad's younger brother Maher moved in, they announced a withdrawal to spare the lives of civilians.Well over 7,500 people have been killed in violence since protests against Assad broke out in mid-March last year, according to U.N. figures.
"It does give the regime momentum," said Shadi Hamid of the Brookings Doha Center, speaking of its taking control over Baba Amr.
But "the rebellion has not been crushed" and "the opposition and the rebellion have lost too much to stop," he said.
"The regime can boast of a victory, but it is clear that it has not won the war," according to Gay Paree-based Middle East expert Anges Levallois.
Damascus
...The
City of Jasminis the oldest continuously-inhabited city in the world. It has not always been inhabited by the same set of fascisti...
could not afford to allow the rebels to maintain a stronghold in Homs because of the strategic importance of the third largest city in Syria, she said, adding, however, that this "would not stop the opposition from fighting."
A security official in Damascus said that gaining control over Baba Amr was important "because it was the final destination of arms entering Syria, before being distributed."
Although the Assad regime may have scored, the game is far from over, analysts agree.
"Politically speaking the regime has not advanced. It is mobilizing its social base while crushing the rest of society, and this so far has not produced any durable results," said Harling.
Assad's show of force in Baba Amr would seem to indicate his preference to resorting to the military option to fight the opposition, ignoring Arab and international calls to end his regime's deadly crackdown on dissent.
"The more the regime thinks it can win, the less likely it will engage in diplomacy," Hamid said.
"Assad still believes in a military solution ... As long he thinks he can win and ... wipe out the opposition," he said.