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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
State Department quietly warning region on Syrian WMDs
2012-02-25
From The Cable at Foreign Policy magazine. This is quite a scoop.
The State Department has begun coordinating with Syria's neighbors to prepare for the handling of President Bashar al-Assad's extensive weapons of mass destruction if and when his regime collapses, The Cable has learned.

This week, the State Department sent a diplomatic demarche to Syria's neighbors Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia, warning them about the possibility of Syria's WMDs crossing their borders and offering U.S. government help in dealing with the problem, three Obama administration officials confirmed to The Cable. For concerned parties both inside and outside the U.S. government, the demarche signifies that the United States is increasingly developing plans to deal with the dangers of a post-Assad Syria -- while simultaneously highlighting the lack of planning for how to directly bring about Assad's downfall.
'Developing plans': what does that mean? Shifting the blame? Glancing the other way? Wringing our hands? In 2003 we had a plan for a thug we thought had weapons of mass destruction, but I have a feeling that isn't the kind of plans we're developing now.
Syria is believed to have a substantial chemical weapons program, which includes mustard gas and sophisticated nerve agents, such as sarin gas, as well as biological weapons. Syria has also refused IAEA requests to make available facilities that were part of its nuclear weapons program and may still be in operation.
If it turns out later that the State Department is wrong on this (for whatever reason), will the progressive left castigate Obama the way it castigated Bush over Iraq?
The State Department declined to provide access to any officials to discuss the private diplomatic communication on the record, such as the author of the demarche Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation Tom Countryman. In a meeting with reporters earlier this year, Countryman expressed confidence that the United States knows where Syria's WMD stockpiles are, but warned that they could become a very serious security issue for Syria and the region going forward.

"We have ideas as to the quantity and we have ideas as to where they are," Countryman said. "We wish some of the neighbors of Syria to be on the lookout... When you get a change of regime in Syria, it matters what are the conditions -- chaotic or orderly."

The demarche made four specific points, according to other U.S. officials who offered a fuller account to The Cable. It communicated the U.S. government's recognition that there is a highly active chemical warfare program in Syria, which is complemented by ballistic-missile delivery capability. It further emphasized that that any potential political transition in Syria could raise serious questions about the regime's control over proliferation-sensitive material.

Third, the State Department wanted Syria's neighbors to know that should the Assad regime fall, the security of its WMD stockpile -- as well as its control over conventional weapons like MANPADS (shoulder-fired rocket launchers) -- could come into question and could pose a serious threat to regional security. Lastly, the demarche emphasized that the U.S. government stands ready to support neighboring countries to provide border-related security cooperation.

"It's essentially a recognition of the danger to the regional and international community of the stockpiles that the regime possesses and the importance of working with countries, given the potential fall of the regime, to prevent the proliferation of these very sensitive weapons outside of Syria's border," one administration official said. "It's an exponentially more dangerous program than Libya. We are talking about legitimate WMDs here -- this isn't Iraq.
Iraq had these weapons as well. Saddam used chemical weapons on Iran and on his own people. He then figured out that the threat of use was as good as having big stockpiles, and so put his production into cold storage.
The administration is really concerned about loose WMDs. It's one of the few things you could put on the agenda and do something about without planning the fall of the regime."

The administration is also working closely with the Jordanians on the issue. A Jordanian military delegation was at the Pentagon Thursday to meet with Defense Secretary Leon Panetta.

In addition to the danger of proliferation, there is a concern that Assad could actually use his WMDs if his situation becomes desperate.

"The WMD program is in play now, and that's important because it highlights the innate danger that the existence of this regime poses to U.S. security and regional interests," the administration official said. "[The demarche] puts Syria's neighbors on notice and it reflects the recognition that a dangerous Assad regime is willing to do anything to save its own skin. If they are willing to kill the country to save the regime, they might be willing to do a great deal more damage throughout the region."
No one would be surprised if Pencilneck did just this, just as no one was surprised when Saddam used chemical weapons on the Kurds. The difference is, George Bush led from the front, and Obama is leading from behind.
Posted by:Steve White

#4  ...will the progressive left castigate Obama the way it castigated Bush over Iraq?

No castigation to date.

Is there really a guy named Tom Countryman in the State Dept? Kind of like Captain America?
Posted by: JohnQC   2012-02-25 18:54  

#3  Quiet State Department "warnings" on Iran? Regional dangers to include the entire country of Israel?
Posted by: Besoeker   2012-02-25 04:09  

#2  D *** NG IT, 1990'S > A NUKE IS N-O-T A WMD - you know, NBC or CBRN(E,EM]!

NOT, NOT - spelled N-U-U-T - NOT!

So there.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2012-02-25 00:29  

#1  Where did the WMD go? Dumb asses.

Missed it all I guess. -Why doth Russia have fight here other than the port? Who moved that stock.

whatever people.
Posted by: newc   2012-02-25 00:11  

00:00