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Economy
Gas prices to hit $4 a gallon by spring
2012-02-14
Gasoline prices could soon hit $4 a gallon, a threshold they haven't flirted with since last spring.
Brilliant, Barack, brilliant. You own this one.
The average price paid by U.S. drivers for a gallon of regular now stands at $3.52, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which released its latest figures this afternoon. That price represents an increase of 0.04 percent from a week ago and 0.38 percent from a year ago.

Experts expect prices to spike another 60 cents or more, with the $4 mark being touched—or exceeded—sometime this summer, probably by Memorial Day weekend, the peak of the summer driving season. The last time the U.S. saw $4 gasoline was back in the summer of 2008.

"I think it's going to be a chaotic spring," says Tom Kloza of the Oil Price Information Service. He expects average prices to peak at $4.05, though he and other industry trackers say prices could be sharply higher in some markets.

Historically, $4 a gallon has been the upper limit of what consumers have been willing to pay. Last April, national prices peaked at about $3.98 a gallon before receding. "It's going to be tough to sustain that level," thinks Brian Milne of energy tracker Televent DTN. "People will drive less."
Posted by:Steve White

#24  IIRC the price for Regular Unleaded is going up to US$4.88 here on Guam - don't ask for Premium/Super.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2012-02-14 22:42  

#23  3.13 a month ago, 3.55 last night. And that's at the cheap station.
Posted by: tu3031   2012-02-14 19:25  

#22  Let's see if I can post the above referenced graph:

Unfortunately, pricing information is left out. Roughly it shows about a 9% drop in US gasoline consumption between 2001 and 2011, a period with 2 recessions. It's a step in the right direction, of clarifying the discussion on gasoline prices.
Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418   2012-02-14 14:59  

#21  Anguper,might this help? Only goes back to 1991.
(Can't get the link thing to work - looks like it does, but vanishes when preview. Re-assemble the segments-)
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/02/
huge-plunge-in-petroleum-and-gasoline.html
Posted by: Glenmore   2012-02-14 14:51  

#20  Correction: I've been looking for a good graph showing average monthly US prices of gasoline versus monthly US gasoline consumption, updated from about 1/79 to 12/11.
Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418   2012-02-14 14:42  

#19  I've been looking for a good graph showing average monthly prices of gasoline versus monthly gasoline, updated from about 1/79 to 12/11.
I've seen partial & incomplete graphs. As best I can tell, people are using a little less gasoline, but not a 'lot less'. The graph I want is, IMHO, necessary to lead any article about US gas prices, just to give readers an accurate perspective on the situation.
In the poorer sections of my part of OH, I have been seeing many more grown men on bicycles or on foot with lunch boxes, backsacks & satchels than I have seen in previous decades. They don't look like students. Perhaps those are the ones who quit driving.
Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418   2012-02-14 14:41  

#18  Glenmore - One possible explanation for the divergence of gasoline from crude is that Obama has regulated a few US refineries out of existence. With refining capacity dwindling due to regulatory fiat the market doesn't know what to expect during the annual transition from cheaper winter gasoline blends to more expensive summer ones and is pricing in the risk that things won't go smoothly.

There's never perfect correlation over the very short term but in the long run that's been the way to bet:

Posted by: AzCat   2012-02-14 14:33  

#17  Boycott petroleum! That'll show 'em all.
Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418   2012-02-14 14:01  

#16  And of course the money-printing will mean larger $ amounts (not value) in profits to the oil companies who the Administration, and their lapdog media, will then blame for jacking up the prices.
Posted by: CrazyFool   2012-02-14 13:32  

#15  AzCat, it looks to me like gasoline prices are up considerably more than crude prices this cycle. Concur that crude prices are running in synch with dollar printing.
Posted by: Glenmore   2012-02-14 13:26  

#14  People are already using a LOT less gasoline in the US; I can only figure that the higher price is being supported by increased gasoline exports.

Crude prices are being driven in large part by the simultaneous attempts by the Fed, ECB & Japan to devalue their currencies. Plot the US monetary base against crude prices and you'll see a very very strong correlation. The largest component of the price of finished gasoline is the cost of crude oil thus as crude runs up gasoline prices necessarily follow.

As you noted, the really frightening part isn't the forthcoming price spike, it's that it's happening in an environment where consumption has fallen off a cliff. That may not include imports but even if it doesn't that doesn't explain those two data points at the bottom right corner of the chart. Scary if they're the new normal and not extreme outliers.
Posted by: AzCat   2012-02-14 12:53  

#13  Yup, I saw $4.14 at shell north of San Rafael, CA on Saturday.
Posted by: bigjim-CA   2012-02-14 12:42  

#12  But, hey, at least we don't have inflation.
Posted by: Ebbang Uluque6305   2012-02-14 12:21  

#11  Already happened this weekend in the People's Republic of California.
Posted by: DarthVader   2012-02-14 11:03  

#10  Of course. After Winston Smith's department did their job.
Posted by: Glenmore   2012-02-14 10:15  

#9  Former President Bush of course.
Posted by: Besoeker   2012-02-14 09:55  

#8  Identify who said this:
"Energy prices must necessarily skyrocket."
Posted by: Glenmore   2012-02-14 09:49  

#7  See if you can locate the central problem regarding Federal Motor Fuel taxes from the excerpt provided below:

The motor fuel tax is a per-gallon excise tax levied on gasoline, diesel, and other special fuels, and is deposited into the Federal Highway Trust Fund (HTF). Motor fuel taxes provide about 82 percent of the revenue used for Federal surface transportation funding.

The HTF was established by the Federal-aid Highway Act of 1956 for the direct purpose of funding the construction of an Interstate Highway System and aiding in the finance of primary, secondary, and urban routes. Prior to establishment of the HTF, a federal motor fuel tax of 1 cent per gallon was enacted in 1932 and increased, extended, and rescinded multiple times until 1955. Revenue was not collected in a dedicated fund, but instead was pooled with the General Fund of the Treasury. Similarly, cash to pay for obligations incurred for the Federal highway program came from the General Fund.

Initially set at 3 cents per gallon in 1956, the motor fuel tax was increased to 4 cents per gallon in 1959. Then after a 24-year hiatus, motor fuel taxes were increased to 9 cents per gallon in 1983 and a new dedicated Mass Transit Account was established alongside the existing Highway Account and was funded with one-ninth of the revenues coming into the HTF. The next year, the motor fuel tax on diesel fuel was increased separately by 6 cents per gallon, a differential that remains today.

Since 1987, except from January 1996 to October 1997, an additional 0.1 cent per gallon has been levied and deposited in the Leaking Underground Storage Tank Trust Fund.

Link

*Not mentioned are the individual State taxes applied to motor fuels.
Posted by: Besoeker   2012-02-14 09:40  

#6  People are already using a LOT less gasoline in the US; I can only figure that the higher price is being supported by increased gasoline exports.
Obama won't 'own' this, it will be painted as the oil companies' fault - after all, they are making big profits (though refining & marketing companies are not.) It will give the Administration more cover for adding new taxes on the oil companies, which will lead to even higher gas prices, but again, that's revenue to the government that they get to blame others for.
Posted by: Glenmore   2012-02-14 09:19  

#5  Maybe we should come up with a national drinking game [since we won't be driving as much] in which the One and his minions in MSM blame economic refuseniks, sabotagers, and hooligans for the spike in price. Dumb drunk when he or his agents call for 'price controls'.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2012-02-14 09:00  

#4  "It's going to be tough to sustain that level," thinks Brian Milne of energy tracker Televent DTN. "People will drive less."

That's because recessions generally follow a rise of that magnitude. If the trunks can't win in November, they truly are the stupid party.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2012-02-14 08:19  

#3  $5/gallon by mid-summer. Asshat will blame Bush, you just know it
Posted by: Frank G   2012-02-14 08:09  

#2  Sure glad we're building that Keystone XL pipeline ... oh, wait ...
Posted by: Cincinnatus Chili   2012-02-14 07:38  

#1  I don't think Memorial Day is the 'peak' of the summer driving season, merely the start of it. IIRC, gas prices fell a bit after Memorial Day in 2011.
If things heat up in the Persian Gulf this year, we will WISH gas was just $4/gal.
Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418   2012-02-14 00:28  

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