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Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
Why Russia Loves Arab Tyrants
2012-02-05
Russia is using its veto in the UN Security Council to prevent the organization of a UN military aid operation for the Syrian opposition. This prevents the kind of aid the Libyan rebels got. The Russians lost a lot of money when the Libyan dictatorship was overthrown. There were unpaid billions for weapons already delivered, plus lost future sales. For decades, Libya had been a major customer for Russian weapons. The new Libyan government will not buy any more Russian weapons and will not honor unpaid bills for past deliveries.
It seems that for decades Qadaffy, not Libya, was a major customer for Russian weaponry. The NTC figures Aisha and Hannibal and Saadi can pay off Pop's debts. Having supported their nattily dressed client rather than jumping on the NTC bandwagon, Putin and Co. are now paying the price.
Russia is determined not to lose Syria in the same way.
You can tell Putin is a genius by the fact that he's not supporting the coming new regime so as to get on their good side, but sticking with the existing, literally fascist, regime. A popular form of insanity involves doing the same thing over and over again and expecting to get different results.
This Russian opposition sends a message that a dictatorship can openly (via the Internet and cell-phone photos) slaughter their people and maintain tyrannical rule in spite of most UN members condemning this sort of misbehavior.
And now Russers seem to be turning out in the streets to toss a few words at Waldemar and Duh-mitri..
If a tyrant has one of the few UN nations with a Security Council veto on their side, bloody repression can be used without fear of armed intervention. Most of the world doesn't like this, but Russia is a nuclear power and determined to use its veto to serve Russian interests.
Even when serving Russia's interests in the short term demolishes Russia's interests in the long term. Go figure.

More Strategy Page discussion follows, filling in detail...
Posted by:Chique Unock2033

#6  Oh, it is so charming that Vlad, the most westernized of the Czars, has discovered that the west has success precisely because unlike the Russians we don't usually sell out our friends. But expect him to revert to form in short order.

We should offer him a Guantanamo perpetual port treaty on Tartous and a guarantee that Israel will buy a billion dollars of Russian rifles and ammo from U.S. military aide money next year.

He would come around.
Posted by: rammer   2012-02-05 23:52  

#5  Russia is making the point that they won't abandon their customers (at least politically). Good for business, bad for relations with the West.
Posted by: Rjschwarz   2012-02-05 21:31  

#4  A popular form of insanity involves doing the same thing over and over again and expecting to get different results.

Oh... do you mean like knee-jerk support of people calling themselves "The Opposition" without digging a little deeper and seeing that they are Salafist Sunni Fundamentalists?
Posted by: Secret Master   2012-02-05 20:25  

#3  See also CHINESE MILITARY FORUM > [China Economic Blog] IRAN-CHINA TRADE EXCEEDS US$40.0BILYUHN IN 2011 [up US$16.0B from 2010], besides also another repor US$40.0Bilyuhn or so worth of bilateral Oil-Gas dev contracts in lieu of Western firms.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2012-02-05 20:21  

#2  You can tell Putin is a genius by the fact that he's not supporting the coming new regime so as to get on their good side

(a) Since Russia made "kinetic action" impossible, the current regime is going to survive.
(b) The alternative to Assad are Ikhwan---and they don't have a good side.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2012-02-05 15:25  

#1  That's why the push to develop energy distribution. Norway has an unemployment rate of 2.5%. Each Norwegian is $100,000 in the black in their government fund. Energy is the way out for the USA and Russia. Should they let things fall apart it may take years to rebuild. That will make things much worse for Russia. Russian interests are to the west not the east. China is no bussomed buddy. With the election in Russia the public is in no mood for economic or polical troubles. Europe needs the energy. Greece needs the revenue as does Turkey and Israel. Build and repair.
Posted by: Dale   2012-02-05 11:50  

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