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| Afghanistan | ||
| The Other Guy's Endgame - Part II | ||
| 2012-02-05 | ||
Sir Simon Gass - NATO Ambassador to Kabul (Highest ranking foreign civilian in Afghanistan): "If they keep fighting they will lose, that's a good reason to come to the negotiating table. In 2005 and '06, the big resurgence of the insurgency wasn't because they were under huge military pressure, rather because there wasn't enough pressure. So we have to keep on applying the pressure so they know they can't return." How does Pakistan play out on the ground? NATO Intelligence Analyst at Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands (the European nerve center of NATO/ISAF's operations): "Pak is important for our fuel and other contracts to kick in. Simply, it's important for the war machine to move forward." A decade into the war, how does a military planner - not a politician - explain the progress in Afghanistan? Lt. Col. Ian Kippen (UK Army), Battle-Space Briefer at Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands: "Design a difficult campaign, and Afghanistan is the perfect recipe for failure. Weather, temperature, droughts, terror. Even the ability for government is an issue. Today, the NATO mission in Afghanistan is like herding cats. For example, revision number six of the ISAF 'OPlan' [Operations Plan] is under work right now. For some of us, that means that five plans have not gone according to, well...plan." 2014 is still two years away. Is NATO going to have the resolve? NATO Intelligence Analyst at Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands (the European nerve center of NATO/ISAF's operations): "The economic crisis is testing NATO cohesion and will. The relationship between the US and the European countries is not black and white, but yin and yang. But there is an imbalance between US spending power and EU facilitation. The economic crisis in Europe is taking a toll, for sure. But then, Europe has always been the logistic while the US has been the military arm of NATO. However, France is the outsider inside. Watching France operate in Afghanistan is important, as it has a tendency to go its own way, but also set trends within NATO. The smaller countries, unhappy with not being given a larger administrative role, are going to make noises as well." What about the criticism that it is NATO/ISAF presence that gives rise to the insurgency, and not the other way around? Col. Jan Halvert (Royal Dutch Army), PA Division, Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands: "The war was limited in the early years. The troop numbers were smaller until 2007-09. That's when things changed. Maybe because more troops came and NATO became a 'Magnet of the South'. What are the 'Pakistan priorities' for NATO/ISAF's operational planning towards the 2014 drawdown? NATO Intelligence Analyst at Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands: "It's simple, really. Firstly, fire from Pak is a problem, so sort that out. Secondly, minimize risk of ISAF engaging Pak. Here the meetings of the Corps Commanders help. Also, Pakistani officers brief General Allen regularly in Kabul, so that helps too. As for Pakistan's involvement with the ANSF [Afghan National Security Forces] goes, don't expect any mentoring from Pak officers yet, but the offer has come, along with India." How does the 'fighting, talking, developing' strategy really play out? Sir Simon Gass - NATO Ambassador to Kabul (Highest ranking foreign civilian in Afghanistan): "If they keep fighting they will lose, that's a good reason to come to the negotiating table. In 2005 and '06, the big resurgence of the insurgency wasn't because they were under huge military pressure, rather because there wasn't enough pressure. So we have to keep on applying the pressure so they know they can't return." How does Pakistan play out on the ground? NATO Intelligence Analyst at Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands (the European nerve center of NATO/ISAF's operations): "Pak is important for our fuel and other contracts to kick in. Simply, it's important for the war machine to move forward." A decade into the war, how does a military planner - not a politician - explain the progress in Afghanistan? Lt. Col. Ian Kippen (UK Army), Battle-Space Briefer at Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands: "Design a difficult campaign, and Afghanistan is the perfect recipe for failure. Weather, temperature, droughts, terror. Even the ability for government is an issue. Today, the NATO mission in Afghanistan is like herding cats. For example, revision number six of the ISAF 'OPlan' [Operations Plan] is under work right now. For some of us, that means that five plans have not gone according to, well...plan." 2014 is still two years away. Is NATO going to have the resolve? NATO Intelligence Analyst at Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands (the European nerve center of NATO/ISAF's operations): "The economic crisis is testing NATO cohesion and will. The relationship between the US and the European countries is not black and white, but yin and yang. But there is an imbalance between US spending power and EU facilitation. The economic crisis in Europe is taking a toll, for sure. But then, Europe has always been the logistic while the US has been the military arm of NATO. However, France is the outsider inside. Watching France operate in Afghanistan is important, as it has a tendency to go its own way, but also set trends within NATO. The smaller countries, unhappy with not being given a larger administrative role, are going to make noises as well." What about the criticism that it is NATO/ISAF presence that gives rise to the insurgency, and not the other way around? Col. Jan Halvert (Royal Dutch Army), PA Division, Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands: "The war was limited in the early years. The troop numbers were smaller until 2007-09. That's when things changed. Maybe because more troops came and NATO became a 'Magnet of the South'. What are the 'Pakistan priorities' for NATO/ISAF's operational planning towards the 2014 drawdown? NATO Intelligence Analyst at Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands: "It's simple, really. Firstly, fire from Pak is a problem, so sort that out. Secondly, minimize risk of ISAF engaging Pak. Here the meetings of the Corps Commanders help. Also, Pakistani officers brief General Allen regularly in Kabul, so that helps too. As for Pakistan's involvement with the ANSF [Afghan National Security Forces] goes, don't expect any mentoring from Pak officers yet, but the offer has come, along with India." What about the India angle? NATO Intelligence Analyst at Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands (the European nerve center of NATO/ISAF's operations): "The Pakistan versus India role is important. For instance, India wants to invest in Herat for iron ores. Now, we would want to ship that out of Pakistan versus Iran or China. China already owns 95 percent of global minerals, so it's got enough. Iran has penetrated Afghanistan through oil, while it has a deep distrust of the Taliban but supplies weapons and IEDs to them, just to stick it to the west. So frankly, we would rather India and Pakistan work things out, and not the other way around." There is an impression in Pakistan that the Afghan government favours India, e.g. Kabul has signed a recent strategic partnership with New Delhi, which the Indians claim, was pushed for by the Afghans themselves. Can Islamabad expect a similar push? Dr. Hakim Asher, Spokesperson for the Government of Afghanistan and President Karzai: "We will come to that later. Right now we have other issues and bigger problems between our countries." How many insurgents are operating in Afghanistan? Col. Jan Halvert (Royal Dutch Army), PA Division, Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands: "No idea of the number of Taliban out there." Brig. General Carsten Jacobsen (Deutsch Army), ISAF Spokesman: "2000 Taliban, maybe? But maybe there is a five-digit number? Who knows how to quantify the hardcore of extremists...The ones who will never give up. What about someone frustrated who becomes a sympathizer. Is he just a local, or an insurgent? The number of Taliban is not important. The intensity is. There is no size of battle. You can't kill them, but you can overwhelm them. " But insurgents win by not losing: Isn't that the basis of guerilla war? How, and when, can you claim victory when they can even strike within Kabul? Governor Fidayee of Wardak Province: "There might be attacks in Kabul, but there are successes too. What about the Loya Jirga? How did that happen without a hiccup? Listen: ANA [Afghan National Army], ANP [Afghan National Police] and NDS [National Directorate for Security] cannot be beaten by the insurgents conventionally. Never. Our goals are to defeat them in a different way. Today, four of my districts are ready for transition [for total Afghan control taken from NATO/ISAF]. So not just security bothers me [sic]. We will be deliberate and gradual." The NATO/ISAF footprint is seen by the insurgency, by some locals and by some neighbours as an occupation. Isn't it? Lt. Col. Steve Kissler, Georgia Army National Guard (Agribusiness Development Team), Wardak Province: "Golly. We see and hear, mostly hear, about things that are happening all around us. But the people we deal with make us feel that they want our help...These people who we're helping...They either haven't thought to do it themselves, or they need the help. That's why they ask" What about the Salalah incident? How will that play out for NATO/ISAF? High-ranking ISAF military official in Kabul who asked not to be named for the record: "It's going to go far beyond the military. There are going to be several questions. The integration of the Pakistan Army in the operation as well as the Durand Line and its sanctity will come into play. Remember that the Durand Line is not clear anywhere from 1.8 to 5 kilometers depending on where one is standing. The insurgency uses it as a playground, and is using it against us with Salalah." The Pakistanis fear the worst as far as NATO/ISAF's intentions regarding Salalah are concerned. Should they? Brig. General Carsten Jacobsen (Deutsch Army), ISAF Spokesman: "This [Salalah] is the best thing that could have happened to the Taliban. Allen met Kayani the same day! Of course, it's a setback. But would we give it the same importance as the Bin Laden incident? That will have to be watched, and consulates as well as convoys could get affected and will have to be watched too. There are larger problems here...of a tension with Pakistan. We are using Pakistan's roads, yes, but are not dependent on them." There is a school that believes that war will always go on around these parts, that the Afghans know nothing else. Does NATO/ISAF reflect on that? Brig. General Carsten Jacobsen (Deutsch Army), ISAF Spokesman: "The Afghan memory and foresight is longer for war. No body would be in their right mind to claim to understand how much war these people can take. But the insurgency will die only with so many areas they can't deal with." Pakistan is often associated with the insurgency in the Western narrative. What's the word in Afghanistan itself? Mirwaiz Orya, Tolo TV News Anchor in Kabul: "What I ask my guests and analysts everyday is that if the home of the terrorists is Pakistan, as president Karzai says, then why is the US helping the ISI and the Pakistani military? Everyday I ask this. And everyday I get no answers." What evidence is there of Pakistani involvement in the insurgency? Dr. Hakim Asher, Spokesperson for the Government of Afghanistan and President Karzai: "We now know that even the Lashkar-e-Taiyaba, equipped by the ISI, works here. We have the confessions of the arrested terrorists. We will share this evidence with Pakistan when we have to. Some evidence we have already shared." What's the bottom-line of the Pakistan narrative here? Brig. General Carsten Jacobsen (Deutsch Army), ISAF Spokesman: "The perception of Pakistan continues to drive the conflict. But only the insurgency wins." Kemal Nematullah, reintegrated former Taliban Commander, Badakshan Province: "Pakistan has always created problems for Afghanistan and has today destroyed Afghanistan. This will not end." Dr. Hakim Asher, Spokesperson for the Government of Afghanistan and President Karzai: "They are friends. But some within them want the terrorists to go on...It's not the Pakistan Army. It's the ISI which wants this." What's the difference? Why make the divide between the Pakistani military and the ISI? General Ally, Provincial Chief of the National Directorate for Security (NDS), Badakshan Province "You know better than me, the difference." Where is the Pakistani military headed? What does it want now? High-level NATO executive in Kabul who asked not to be named for the record "Look, OBL was traumatic, it shook their military, and it was a setback. Pakistan may encourage the peace process, but it all depends on Pak. Frankly, I'm doubtful about the peace process really taking off before 2013. And I don't see a PakMil suddenly surrounding the Haqqanis, either." Does the NATO/ISAF narrative perceive Pakistan as an enemy? Lt. Jamie Holm, 1st Armored Division, US Army, Forward Operating Base Airborne, Wardak Province: "Honestly, as an American soldier, I think Pakistan could be one of our greatest allies. Definitely a better ally than India. Why? Because Pakistan and the US are both revolutionary countries.
What about the peace process? Hasb-e-Allah, reintegrated former Taliban Commander, Badakshan Province: "People are not just joining the peace process, which is flawed and doesn't inspire any hope. Rather, they are joining the NDS [National Directorate of Security], as the NDS can promise action and results. What can 'peace' promise? Peace doesn't have any Army. The NDS does. Peace also depends on the strategy of the Afghan government for reintegration and reconciliation with the Taliban. How confident is it of achieving these goals? Are reformed insurgents here to stay? General Ally, Provincial Chief of the National Directorate for Security (NDS), Badakshan Province "They will never do anything against our national security. People think they're simple Taliban fighting in the mountains who give up their arms. They're not. Nobody knows what they've been doing in the past for us. They're Afghans. And they actually cut the roots of the Taliban." After 2014, will drones continue to play a role in the Afghan battlefield? Lt. Col. Ian Kippen (UK Army), Battle-Space Briefer at Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands: "There are no drone strikes inside Afghanistan today. Drone are only used for recon [surveillance] purposes. But drone strikes are foreseeable in the future, after ISAF. Does the region have a future of war? Lt. Col. Ian Kippen (UK Army), Battle-Space Briefer at Joint Forces Command Brunsumm, Netherlands: "Thanks to 'Military Technology Inflation', we have a new problem. Because everything has a computer in it, and as the low tolerance for military casualties has increased, war has become expensive. That means smaller armies and more alliances will pave the way for the West. However, for the region, China and India will be outliers. They will continue to have massive militaries." As the war effort draws down and the peace talks begin, does 'the enemy' get redefined? Saleem Adil, disabled former soldier and worker at Afghan Spark Anti-Mining Tool Factory, Kabul "Fighting against the mines saves lives. I don't know if fighting against the Taliban does the same. I can't see the mines. But I can see the Taliban and protect myself." Will this insurgency ever end? Brig. General Carsten Jacobsen (Deutsch Army), ISAF Spokesman: "Insurgency is not ended by a decisive battle. It won't be over if we all meet in Jalalabad." Khan, a Harvard Shorenstein Fellow and an Asia Society Global Young Leader, is a Senior Reporter for The Friday Times. @wajskhan on Twitter andwajahat_khan@hks.harvard.edu | ||
| Posted by:trailing wife |
| #2 All sides in Afghanistan are gearing up for the civil war that will happen (restart) when the West leaves. But this time around the Uzbecks and Tadjiks will be well prepared and the Pushtun the losers. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2012-02-05 16:28 |
| #1 From the previous article: "As far as the neighbours are concerned, they should understand that Afghanistan has suffered an insurgency for the last thirty years and needs the right size of forces with the right capability," said an official in a no-names briefing. "The [Afghan] Ministry of Finance says that ten billion [dollars] a year are required for the security and non-security budget to keep things going. The current costs of the war [over $120 billion, according to NATO analysts in Brunsumm], when compared, will make this figure look like nothing. Reading the tea leaves makes things look not all that bad...One month of a military campaign is equal to the annual cost of a [post 2014] stabilizing campaign...It's worth exploiting!" The bolded part is key. I suspect the Afghans will get by with $2b of annual military grants, given that the Pakistani budget is only $6b, with a force size several times larger and covers the cost of a navy. The reason the Taliban was able to take over previously was because we cut off the opposition cold, money-wise, after the Soviets withdrew, even as the ISI funded the Taliban. A few hundred million a year to Ahmad Shah Massoud after the Soviet withdrawal could have saved us $1T in war-related expenses. But you know what they say about Humpty Dumpty... |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2012-02-05 14:26 |