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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Scenarios for Syria's endgame |
| 2012-01-29 |
| Posted by:ryuge |
| #3 Baby Assad is still sticking it to both the ARAB LEAGUE + the OBAMA DOCTRINE again + again, i.e. getting rid of oppressive Regimes whom commit serious human rights, etc. abuses or crimes agz their own people. * TOPIX > TURKISH FM DAVUGUTLI > AL-ASSAD HAS CHOSEN TO BECOME [brutal = heavy-handed]MILOSOVIC, NOT GORBACHEV. The Arab-Muslim World is undergoing its equivalent of "GLASNOST" + "PERESTROIKA", except as per Yugoslavia + Serbia. * SAME > DAVUGUTLI: [Armenian = WW1] GENOCIDE ISSUE HAS CAUSED FRANCE TO LOSE ITS CREDIBILITY AS CO-CHAIR OF MINSK GROUP. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2012-01-29 22:18 |
| #2 Okay, pappy. Where, ref #4, would the chinless wonder get such amazing weapons? Right. I keep saying, look at the attempted truck bombing in Amman in, iirc,2004. Lots of munitions, reported poison gas, and no reports of any followup as to where the stuff came from. Avert your eyes, folks, if you don't want to know where Saddaam's WMD went. |
| Posted by: Richard Aubrey 2012-01-29 22:00 |
| #1 Cliff Notes version, in order of plausibility: 1. Coup led by Alawite and Sunni military officers who make a deal with demonstrators while sparing Alawites widespread retribution. 1a. Inside plot to assassinate top leaders, bringing an immediate end to the crisis. 2. Russia convinces Assad to step down and leave the country with his extended family and wealth. 2a. Alawite leaders, military officers and top businessmen collectively decide to engineer a coup, or convince Assad to turn over power to a democratic transitional leadership before total collapse ruins the country. 3. Regional and global powers to impose no-fly zones and safe havens, leading to shortages and runaway inflation, and massive anti-regime demonstrations. Assad either falls or flees. 4. Full civil war. Syria collapses and breaks up into statelets (Iraq facing similar and simultaneous disintegration - and "it's all the fault of the Zionists and the U.S." appears to be a very popular conspiracy with the Arabs). 4. The Assad regime implements the Sampson Option, attacking or fomenting strife in Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, Turkey and Iraq, perhaps using chemical or nuclear weapons. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2012-01-29 20:19 |