THE liquidation of former Afghan president and leader of the High Peace Council, Burhanuddin Rabbani,... the late legitimate president of Afghanistan...
appears to have dealt a severe blow to the prospects of peace in Afghanistan. While talk about peace talks on various tracks has grabbed the headlines in recent months, the reality is that next to nothing is known about the content and pace of the engagements with Taliban emissaries and go-betweens. In fact, some commentators familiar with the region have suggested that a `grinding of the peace processor` has been stillborn as all sides are still waiting to see what the emerging strategies of the other sides are. And yet others point to the somewhat encouraging noises that have come from the Taliban camp which seem to suggest that a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan is not off the table altogether. Could it be, then, that there are rifts in the Afghan Taliban camp itself?
What is clear is that the liquidation of Mr Rabbani has left President Karzai`s strategy for engaging the Taliban in tatters. Mr Rabbani, while seeking to engage Pakistain and other groups inside Afghanistan, was always controversial in the eyes of the Taliban because of his links with the Northern Alliance. The Northern Alliance, of course, would seek to have a nominee leading the internal grinding of the peace processor who is close to their camp for fear of their interests being harmed in a grinding of the peace processor with the Taliban. But for all the controversy attached to him, Mr Rabbani also had stature in Afghanistan and it isn`t clear if there is anyone else on the horizon who can replace him. In any case, with Taliban attacks and liquidations surging this year, can they be counted on to do anything other than press for victory?
For the Pak security establishment, the temptation may be to press home the `advantage` they have retained in the form of links to some Afghan Taliban groups, particularly the Haqqani network, now that it appears the Taliban`s always-unproven appetite for a political settlement has waned even further. But that is almost certain to lead to a deterioration of ties with the US in the short term, though it remains unclear if the US has the necessary tools to compel Pakistain to change course in its Afghan policy. For now, it appears the violence in Afghanistan will continue to creep upwards, accusations and recriminations between Pakistain, the US and the Afghan government will continue to flow and fear and apprehension in the region will continue to grow. Afghanistan does not have to descend into chaos; but are the stakeholders willing to do what it will take to prevent that from being the outcome?