The decision to suspend more than one-third of American military aid to Pakistain could end up hurting Washington more than Islamabad as the US seeks to navigate an end to the Afghan war and defeat al Qaeda, former Pak officials and analysts warned Monday.Holding back the $800 million in aid is unlikely to pressure Pakistain to increase cooperation with the US and could strengthen those in the government who argue that Washington is a fickle ally who can't be trusted, they said.
"If you still need the relationship, which clearly the United States does, then it really doesn't make sense to take action at this time because it leaves the United States with less, not more, influence with the Pak military," said Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pak ambassador to the US "Cooperation cannot be coerced by punitive actions."
Despite billions of dollars in American aid since the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, the relationship has long been tense because of Pakistain's reluctance to target Talibs on its territory who stage cross-border attacks against NATO
...the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Originally it was a mutual defense pact directed against an expansionist Soviet Union. In later years it evolved into a mechanism for picking the American pocket while criticizing the style of the American pants...
troops in Afghanistan.
The relationship took a nose dive on May 2 when US commandos staged a covert raid to kill al Qaeda chief the late Osama bin Laden
... who no longer has to waste time and energy breathing...
in a Pak garrison town not far from Islamabad. The raid humiliated the Pak military, which ordered US trainers out of the country and reduced bilateral cooperation.
President Barack
B.O.Obama's chief of staff, William Daley, said Sunday that the US was suspending $800 million in aid to the Pak military until the two countries can patch up their relationship.
But Tariq Fatemi, another former Pak ambassador to the US, said he thought the American strategy to pressure Pakistain was destined for failure.
"I think it is unwise to expect the Paks to buckle under what is a publicly delivered snub," said Fatemi. "It will strengthen those elements in the armed forces that have always had grave misgivings of the relationship with the United States."
Many Paks have never forgiven the US for slapping sanctions on the country in 1990 because of its work to develop a nuclear weapon. The decision came only a year after Pakistain and the US were successful in a decade-long quest to drive the Soviets out of Afghanistan.
The sanctions left many Paks with a sense that the US was only interested in a "transactional" relationship that it could abandon once its interests were served.
Fatemi, the former ambassador, said the US decision appeared to undercut claims by B.O. regime officials that the US was interested in a long-term relationship that encompassed much more than counterterrorism cooperation.
Pakistain army front man Maj. Gen. Abbas said Sunday that the military had received no official notice from the US that aid was being suspended. He also said that the loss of aid would have no effect on military operations against Islamist hard boyz in the country because they were being conducted with Pakistain's own resources.
"I think it hurts Washington more than it hurts Islamabad," said Lodhi, the former ambassador. "Assistance is influence, and when you withhold it or suspend it, you deprive yourself of influence."
Pakistain army chief Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani
... four star general, current Chief of Army Staff of the Mighty Pak Army. Kayani is the former Director General of ISI...
seemed to pre-empt the effect of the aid cut in a speech after the bin Laden raid -- saying all US military assistance now should be diverted to improve the country's economy and help common Paks.
"They want to end any impression that they are some kind of hired help," said Lodhi.
Some analysts have predicted that the suspension of military aid could hurt the military's war against the Pak Taliban over the long run, especially since the country is suffering an economic slump.
But Ayesha Siddiqa, a Pak defense analyst, said that Pakistain's close relationship with China could offset the impact. Pakistain has long purchased military equipment and missiles from China at lower-cost rates and bought fighter aircraft from the country last year, she said.
The Pak military is "trying to go the Chinese way," said Siddiqa.
It is unclear what other actions Pakistain will take in response to the suspension of US military aid. It could be less helpful in targeting al Qaeda gunnies within the country and in pushing Afghan Talibs with whom it has historical ties to negotiate an end to the Afghan war.
Pakistain is also believed to secretly support US drone strikes against hard boyz in the country's mountainous tribal region. That support has been shaken in the wake of the bin Laden raid and could be further imperiled by the suspension of aid.
One of the most high-profile points of leverage that the Paks have with the US is the shipment of a large percentage of non-lethal supplies through the country to NATO troops in Afghanistan. Pakistain temporarily closed the border to NATO supplies last year after an accidental US helicopter strike killed two Pak troops. It is unclear if the suspension of aid could provoke a similar response.
"When you take this kind of action, you reinforce the transactional nature of the relationship," said Lodhi. "The moment you do that all bets are off because the response will not be a very positive one."
But Lodhi also noted that Pakistain and the US do share common interests in combatting terrorism and fostering a stable Afghanistan -- even if the details don't always match up.
"The common interest is there, but the question is can we walk back from the brink and find common ground to rebuild trust step by step?"