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| Arabia | |
| Two Bad Options in Yemen | |
| 2011-04-06 | |
It should also be asking: what does Yemen look like if Salih stays? I'm not sure if the US asked itself this question or if it just came to the conclusion that no matter what it did Salih was on his way out, I suspect the latter, but have no inside information. We should be clear, both scenarios - Salih leaving or staying - are potentially dangerous for US national security, which is one of the reasons the Obama administration is so hesitant to withdraw its support from Salih. If Salih leaves the US is worried that the next government won't be as willing to meet US requests in fighting al-Qaeda as Salih has been in the past 14 months (because when journalists talk about Salih being an ally of the US in the war against AQAP this is the period they are referring to). If, on the other hand, Salih stays, in the current environment it would likely take him several months to reassert control over much of the country that he has lost in recent weeks if he ever could, meaning that AQAP would not be as opposed as it has been. Salih has often been mocked as the "mayor of Sanaa," a snide journalistic and diplomatic remark that often betrays more about the speaker's lack of knowledge about Yemen than it does Salih's authority. But if he stays, this description could very well turn out to be true, and for a US that worries that if AQAP isn't under any pressure it will be free to plan and launch attacks on the US such a scenario is rightly frightening. (Personally, I don't believe that even if Salih remains throughout this term - an outcome I believe is unlikely - he will ever be able to reassert control over the whole of Yemen). So that is where the US is at in Yemen: two bad options. Recognizing at the same time that regardless of what course it decides to pursue much of Yemen's future will remain beyond the realm of human engineering. There will only be so much that the US and the future government of Yemen will be able to control and dictate. I have argued that from strictly a US national security point of view and leaving aside all other considerations (an approach to foreign policy I don't believe is wise) that helping to push Saliih out is the least bad option. In that scenario the US will have, as I suggested recently in the New York Times, a small window of opportunity to positively impact change in Yemen. I don't have great confidence that the US, the EU, Saudi Arabia, and the GCC will actually be able to take advantage of this but by pushing Salih out at least they will have a chance. And any chance is better than the no chance they will have if Salih remains. | |
| Posted by:Pappy |
| #5 They were much happier when they were two countries at war with one another: one Communist, the other totalitarian. Now I suppose one would be Islamofascist, the other Muslim totalitarian. Something must be done with all that surplus population they've been generating, and most are suited only for chewing qat, as far as I can tell. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2011-04-06 13:12 |
| #4 Tribes with flags and guns...nasty combination. I think, putting on my conspiracy theorist hat, that a goodly sum of this unrest in Yemen is Al Qaeda "encouraged". Yemen has recently cracked down on the AQ's crackpot activities. So AQ, digs up an old Fatwa and quotes the Quran and gets the locals all in a lather so they can ditch Saleh. Then AQ will turn Yemen into an Arabic Somolia and the latest pest hole to breed this nutjob, crackpot, crazy crap, Islamic nonsense that AQ subscribes to. Of course Saleh is a tyrant and a brutal enforcer of the laws. How else do you keep these loons in line? |
| Posted by: Bill Clinton 2011-04-06 10:09 |
| #3 Drill or die. |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2011-04-06 05:31 |
| #2 #1 - that only works if containment &/or isolation is used to keep the violence tolerable. Unfortunately the rest of the world keeps sending Muslims vast sums of money to buy plane tickets out our way. |
| Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2011-04-06 04:11 |
| #1 Letting Muslims exercise their homicidal urges on each other---instead on the rest of us, sounds like an excellent choice to me. |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2011-04-06 03:00 |