The future of the Middle East is being rewritten by events that caught policymakers, the usual experts and indeed virtually everyone by surprise. Elsewhere around the globe, developments are unfolding in a couple of places every bit as significant and also with the potential to unsettle U.S. policy. And this time, Washington shouldnÂ’t be caught unaware.
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At the top of the list is volatile Pakistan. Trouble there threatens U.S. objectives in Afghanistan. Relations have deteriorated to the point that PakistanÂ’s military intelligence reportedly no longer helps the CIA target our enemies hiding in remote areas of the country. The reason is dispiriting: U.S. drone attacks are aimed at the Haqqani organization in North Waziristan, which is responsible for bloody attacks in Afghanistan. It has long been supported by PakistanÂ’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency as a proxy for its interests in Afghanistan. The ISI also backs Haqqani militants and other radical Islamist groups as surrogates in its cold war with India.
The ISI has ruthlessly undermined U.S. interests. The CIA station chief in Islamabad had to flee the country after the ISI exposed his identity. Pakistan has thumbed its nose at international treaties by arresting a CIA operative with diplomatic immunity. This is not unlike Iran’s taking hostage U.S. embassy personnel in 1979. U.S. troops have achieved remarkable gains in blunting the Taliban’s momentum in Afghanistan. But in Pakistan, feverish anti-Americanism and religious extremism — the country’s only Christian Cabinet member was murdered recently — threaten to undermine the U.S. war effort.
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The other challenge for U.S. policymakers is the increasingly assertive military stance of China. Beijing is pushing up military spending by nearly 13 percent this year. It recently unveiled a stealth jet similar to the U.S. F-22, plans to add 15 vessels to its fleet of more than 60 submarines and is commissioning what will be its first, but certainly not its last aircraft carrier.
ChinaÂ’s acknowledged military spending has soared from $17 billion in 2001 to $78 billion last year, and the actual figure may be closer to $150 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal. That instills worry among its neighbors in the Asia-Pacific region.
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Fortunately thereÂ’s a natural ally for America in countering the Pakistani and Chinese challenges. ItÂ’s India, the worldÂ’s most populous democracy. To their credit, Presidents Obama and George W. Bush have cultivated ties with India.
The interests of America and India coincide. India, like America, has been the victim of devastating terrorist attacks. Metastasizing radical Islamism, with the potential to turn Pakistan into a failed state with nuclear weapons, is a vital national security issue for Washington and New Delhi. A U.S. decision to aid India with, for example, missile-defense technology would be a powerful message to Pakistan.
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China and India fought a war in 1962, and today their emerging economic rivalry matches their growing military arsenals. Japan, South Korea and other neighbors of China also have been alarmed by ChinaÂ’s military buildup and have sought to bolster their own defenses. India constitutes the logical hub for a new American alliance with Asian and Pacific nations to balance BeijingÂ’s growing military clout and to maintain stability in the region.
Washington canÂ’t anticipate every foreign upheaval, but closer ties with India could prepare for what may be gathering storms on the other side of the world. |