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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| Will China Intervene If N.Korea Collapses? |
| 2010-08-24 |
| [Chosun Ilbo] The U.S. Defense Department in its annual review of China's rising military might hinted at a warning that Beijing could deploy its troops in North Korea if political instability threatens to spill across the border. "China's leaders hope to prevent regional instability from spilling across China's borders and thereby interfering with economic development or domestic stability. Changes in regional security dynamics -- such as perceived threats to China's ability to access and transport foreign resources, or disruptions on the Korean Peninsula -- could lead to shifts in China's military development and deployment patterns, likely with consequences for neighboring states," as the report delicately phrased it. Put bluntly, the Chinese Army could be deployed along the border with North Korea if the North Korean regime collapses, threatening Beijing's interests. This is the first time the U.S. government has openly mentioned China's possible military response to sudden changes in North Korea, meaning that it is taking a realistic approach to the role China plays in North Korean issues. In May 2008, around 200 Chinese military engineers held an exercise setting up pontoon bridges across the Apnok (or Yalu) River that marks the border with the North and conducted other drills there, in what observers said was a preparation for sudden changes in North Korea. In the defense review, the U.S. forecasts that the Chinese military will intervene in missions outside its borders in the event of "changes in regional security dynamics." A possible reunification of the Korean Peninsula led by South Korea following regime collapse in the North could be one such change. South Korea's efforts to achieve reunification in the event of a regime collapse in North Korea could meet with Chinese opposition if Beijing intends to maintain an allied government there. The "unification tax" President Lee Myung-bak proposed in his Liberation Day speech on Sunday stirred up a tremendous amount of controversy due to perceptions that it reflects the South's intention to absorb North Korea. The presidential office tried to diffuse the situation by saying the purpose of the comments was merely to prepare people for the possibility of reunification, but it remains to be seen whether the international community will buy that line. If both the U.S. and China view a sudden change in North Korea as a real possibility, South Korea, which will feel the brunt of any instability in the North, urgently needs to come up with a response. |
| Posted by:Fred |
| #8 Fact is, No One wants NORK. It will take 50 years to make the place rational. It is like freeing a GULAG into your society and NORK is a GULAG period. East Germans were far more nuanced and only set Europe behind 15 years - provided with lingering circumstance. This is something no one wants at all. China talks game, but on game day, it looks as if they will forfeit. |
| Posted by: newc 2010-08-24 23:09 |
| #7 S.Korea military drill envisions 'occupying N.Korea' |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2010-08-24 13:38 |
| #6 It's a small step from vassal state to irrevocable part of greater China, just ask the Tibetans and the people in Xinjiang, or at least those who aren't exported Han. And those countries that were Vassal States of China in the Middle Ages include: Vietnam, Korea, Mongolia, Laos, Thailand, Burma, most of the 'Stans (including Afghanistan) and, thanks to the Mongols, Russia. So, where's the Middle Ages Revival Tour going to stop next? They have a much stronger claim to Mongolia and the Eastern Half of Russia than they do Taiwan. |
| Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain 2010-08-24 12:38 |
| #5 The Chinese consider the northern part of Korea the same as they consider Taiwan and Tibet to be a historical part of Greater China and the southern parts of Korea as vassal states. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2010-08-24 08:51 |
| #4 The newspaper that had this article is the NYTimes of SKorea. I think they oppose reunification (because of the high cost to SK taxpayers) and they are trying to scare the public by saying that SK preparation for reunification will make China invade. |
| Posted by: lord garth 2010-08-24 08:25 |
| #3 The Chinese need at least some fig leaf to cover any land grab otherwise they would provide the 'excuse' for consumers worldwide to boycott. Yes, there are dozens of reason to do it now, but people strangely need some sort of face saving reason to cover their actions which up till now have largely been rationalized away. It's a gamble. The rational fig leaf would be coordination/cooperation of the South with 'joint' teams and commands, no objection from Japan, and probably the price of reducing American forces [since the 'threat' no longer exists] down to material assistance teams in the South. An anschluss would simply fulfill many of the regional nations base fears of who the Chinese really are and remove any self delusion about their intents. Don't show your hand till you need to. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2010-08-24 08:15 |
| #2 Norks collapse. China sends in its divisions in a land grab. As the man says, ROK "urgently needs to come up with a response". Bambi wont be any help, delaying any decision on an urgent requests from his generals to go north for 90 days. One big a*s mistake America. |
| Posted by: Mike Ramsey 2010-08-24 05:32 |
| #1 CHINESE MIL FORUM > JAPAN SAYS [Daoyus] ISLANDS DISPUTED WITH CHINA ARE [jointly] GUARDED BY US, + also JAPAN as per the US-JAPAN SECURITY TREATY, * WMF > JAPAN DECLARES WAR ON CHINA: TOKYO'S UPCOMING NATIONALIZATION OF 25 ISLANDS INCLUDING THE DAOYUS CLAIMED BY CHINA. CHINESE THINK-TANK CIISC in ASIA-PACIFIC BELIEVES THAT JAPAN INTENDS TO FORTIFY + CLAIM EXCLUSIVE POSSESSION/SOVEREIGNTY OF THE DAOYUS + OTHER CHIN-CLAIMED ISLANDS, CONTINENTAL SHELF, + ITS DESIRED EXCLUSIVE EXONOMIC ZONE. * SAME > CPLA INTEL NEWFLASH: CHINA MAY PERMANENTLY BASE ONE OR MORE PLAN TYPE 095 NUCLEAR-ARMED FBM SUBMARINES IN THE YELLOW SEA TO OPPOSE THE US AIRCRAFT CARRIER. * SAME > PEKING PROFESSOR ZHU FENG: CHINA [Beijing Party-Govt] MAY FORMALLY UPGRADE + DECLARE THAT THE YELLOW SEA IS ITS "CORE INTEREST" OR SOVEREIGN DOMAIN, +ALSO ITS NAVAL, MILITARY OPERATING ZONE WHERE FOREIGN MIL FORCES ARE FORBIDDEN. * SAME > CHINA HAD DECIDED TO FIGHT THE US WARSHIPS: US CIA DISCLOSES 71 NIE REPORTS DATED FROM 1948-1978 INDICATING CHINA'S LACK OF FEAR IN MILITARILY CHALLENGING + OPPOSING US MILITARY FORCES DURING THE KOREAN WAR, VARIOUS TAIWAN STRAITS CRISES, + THE VIETNAM WAR. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2010-08-24 02:47 |