Bart Stupak's surrender on ObamaCare likely signals the end of pro-life Democrats, as several commentators have noted.But Sunday's votes also may mark the end of Democrats' revival in the South and Midwest. The party made a concerted effort in 2006 and 2008 to recruit candidates that could win moderate or GOP-leaning districts. That's a key reason why Democrats won such big congressional majorities.
But after forging a big-tent caucus, Speaker Pelosi has not governed that way. Instead, she pushed Blue Dog and other moderate Democrats to vote as if they represented her San Francisco district.
The GOP already is targeting five Democrats who voted no on the House health bill in November but flipped to yes on the overhaul on Sunday: Ohio's John Boccieri, Florida's Allen Boyd, Colorado's Betsy Markey, Florida's Susanne Kosmas and New York's Scott Murphy. John McCain carried the first four districts in 2008 while Murphy only won 50% of the vote that year. Boyd, Markey and Murphy are all part of the Blue Dog coalition.
These five members may be especially at-risk, but in this year, even Democrats that voted no on all of Obama's big agenda items may be vulnerable.
Pelosi and other House leaders largely represent ultrasafe seats, so they don't have to worry about voter backlash. Nor do liberal pundits, who heaped scorn on moderates for not jumping joyfully at the chance to commit political suicide.
Pelosi, Obama and the NYC-D.C. liberal blogosphere have talked themselves into believing their own press releases. They think that voting for ObamaCare will not hurt dozens of Democratic members across the country in November, the polls and recent history be damned. They care little about the people those moderate Democrats represent.
Remember when these folks called themselves the "reality-based community"?
Such hubris has its price. It will be a long, long time before voters in battleground districts and states trust Democratic candidates. And why would quality centrists run when national leaders are going to treat them like shock troops?