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Home Front: Politix
House Democrats' 'no' votes are piling up on healthcare reform
2010-03-12
More than two dozen Democrats are expected to vote against the healthcare reform bill that will hit the House floor in the coming weeks.
"You want me to put my testicles on the table?"
At least 25 House Democrats will reject the healthcare reform legislation, according to a survey by The Hill, a review of other media reports and interviews with lawmakers, aides and lobbyists. Dozens of House Democrats are undecided or won't comment on their position on the measure.
"... while you're holding a claw hammer?"
The 25 opposed include firm "no" votes and members who are likely "no" votes. Most Democrats on The Hill's whip list are definitely going to vote no, but others, such as Reps. Lincoln Davis (Tenn.) and Harry Teague (N.M.), could vote yes.
"Well, I guess I could vote yes. I'm sure my constituents will understand."
However, The Hill has not yet put Democrats who are insisting on Rep. Bart Stupak's (D-Mich.) language on abortion in the "no" category. Stupak has said there are 12 Democrats who supported the House bill in November who will vote no unless his anti-abortion-rights measure is melded into the final bill.
"Steney, what can we do to buy off those abortion nitwits?"
"How much money do we have to throw at them, Nancy?"
"All the money in the country. And more we can borrow until the international rubes catch on."
"There's your answer."

If leadership doesn't make changes to the abortion language and Stupak does indeed have 12 votes in his pocket, it will be very difficult to pass a bill.
"You want to give me several billion dollars? But Nancy, why?"
"'Cause you gotta honest face, Bart."

Yet if they do change the provisions, supporters of abortion rights in the House will threaten to vote no.
"How come he can have several billion and we can't? We're voting 'no'!"
The Hill's list does not include members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, who are threatening to vote no unless changes are made to the bill's immigration-related provisions.
"And we want the entire bill written in Spanish!"
Most on Capitol Hill believe that language will not be changed and that most members of the CHC will still back the final measure.
"You don't vote with us, no boodle for you. Understand, Pablo?"
With all Republicans expected to reject the bill, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) needs to minimize defections. Thirty-nine Democrats voted against the House healthcare bill that passed 220-215 last November.
Posted by:Fred

#4  Of course, here's Van Hollen's advice to Freshman and Sophomore Democrats. (Apparently this is a memo to staff, since it refers to "your member"):

1. I would have your MemberÂ’s schedule pretty clear for next weekend. They will either be here or exhausted (or both).

2. I continue to encourage all of you not to get into debates about process and to try and persuade your Member not to get into process arguments either. At this point, we have to just rip the band-aid off and have a vote — up or down; yes or no? Things like reconciliation and what the rules committee does is INSIDE BASEBALL. People who try and start arguments about process on this are almost always against the actual policy substance too, often times for purely political reasons.

3. Finally, I encourage you to study the final attached slide (#14) and give some thought to what your plan is post-vote, especially during Easter Work Period. If your Member is a yes, or might be a yes, I would lay the groundwork for some events to highlight the reforms that will quickly become law – no more donut hole, dependent children covered until 26, insurance access for those with pre-existing conditions, etc.
Posted by: eLarson   2010-03-12 19:50  

#3  I just a left a note, as cool as I could make it, to my Democratic Representative, Chris Van Hollen.

I conveyed my disapproval of the Slaughter Rule (man, what better name could there be for a rule that could mark the beginning of the end of the Republic?), and that any law passed by it could only be considered illegitimate by the people.

I conveyed my hopes that such a law, if passed, would be squashed by the Supreme Court, and failing that, would be repealed by a future Congress, using the same procedures, if necessary.

I left out my more colorful thoughts on November not getting here nearly soon enough, and that Democrats might be able to caucus in a single restroom. I didn't want to come across as a crank, after all.
Posted by: eLarson   2010-03-12 19:46  

#2  I would say the pressure on these possible Donk "NO" votes will be intense. Rush said Pelosi doesn't have the votes but that being said I'm not sure. The House Donks are being a sandwiched between the voters on one side and Pelosi and Party on the other side. The voters will put you out of a job and Pelosi and Party will punish you.
Posted by: JohnQC   2010-03-12 16:41  

#1  I don't think the Indonesian asshole would have postponed his trip if he didn't think he could swindle the votes.

However...I said the same thing about his trip to secure the Olympics!
Posted by: Gomez Threter7450   2010-03-12 14:47  

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