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Down Under
Climate deal failure 'could mean war'
2009-09-21
And if pigs could fly..
IF the world fails to reach agreement on tackling climate change soon then it could end in war, climate scientist Tim Flannery has warned.
And if that doesn't motivate us to do things his way, he'll threaten us with plagues, boils, locusts, bats, rats, salamanders and newts ...
*shrug* Water shortages are already leading to war, at least on a small scale. This is not new.
Like many others, he is concerned at a lack of progress ahead of a crucial UN climate summit in Copenhagen in December. If there is no deal some time in the next year then there is a risk of momentum fading and the problem getting beyond the reach of world leaders, said Prof Flannery, who is in New York for climate talks.

"My greatest fear is that once people stop negotiating, once diplomacy fails, that's potentially a prelude for war."
Only if someone sees war as being in their best interest. Humankind is screwy and I suppose it's possible that someone would go to war over not getting their way on 'climate-change'. Heck, look at Pakistain where people go to war over someone looking cross-eyed at someone else's cousin. But it's a real stretch to imagine that the progressive Left would go to war since that means that they'd have to do something other than talk and bluster. I don't see European or American leftist invertebrates as having the, er, spine for that.
That could mean conflict over carbon tariffs, over the mass migration of climate-affected people or over serious water shortages, Prof Flannery said.

It might not happen for decades but it was a real threat if Copenhagen failed. "The triggers are there for conflict," the former Australian of the year said.

He gave some support for Australia's proposal to go easier on developing countries in the Copenhagen process, by exempting them from having to make economy-wide commitments to restrain emissions growth.
He'd rather throw a thousand ropes over the American Gulliver ...
The Greens say the plan is a cop-out but Prof Flannery said it should be looked at because current approaches were not working.

"It does hold the promise at least of unlocking further cooperation from those so-called developing countries," he said, adding that countries like China and Brazil were not really developing countries any more. "We haven't got time to let the perfect be the enemy of the good."

Prof Flannery strongly backed Australia voting in its emissions trading scheme before Copenhagen. The Opposition wants a vote delayed. But Prof Flannery also said Australia must cut emissions by at least 25 per cent. The Government's target is a 5 to 25 per cent cut.
A 25% cut in emissions means either a 25% improvement in industrial efficiency, so as to make the cuts painless, or a 25% reduction in carbon energy use. Efficiency is something that happens incrementally and can't be scheduled. A 25% cut in energy usage would put the average first world country back to the 1950s or so in their economy and lives. I welcome someone else going first.
Posted by:tipper

#12  Yeah, once you get on that train, with showers of money and adulation, it's hard to get off.
Posted by: KBK   2009-09-21 19:54  

#11  Flannery made a name for himself digging up kangaroo fossils and we can debate if paleontology is a real science or not. Wikipedia describes it as a "historical science".

Anyway he is not a climate scientist.

I've read excerpts from his book - The Weather Makers - and the guy is certainly a lot brighter than Al Gore. In summary the book draws the most alarmist conclusions from the flimsiest of evidence.

To be fair, I suspect he wrote the book as a money making venture and consequently made it as dramatic as possible.

I suspect he'll modulate his opinion soon enough as the evidence piles up

I see no evidence to date. Climate alarmism has made him rich, famous and consulted by the powerful.
Posted by: phil_b   2009-09-21 19:20  

#10  SOUTH ASIA > high risk for both REGIO "WATER WAR(S) + GEOPOL MUSCLE-FLEXING [read, CHIN-INDIA-PAK] + NEWLY NUKULAARIZED MILITS-TERRS???

E.g. PAKISTANI DEFENCE FORUMS > seems the PM of PAKLAND has already told his Nation-People to be prepared for VARIOUS LOOMING, MOSTLY ENVIRON CRISES ALA RESOURCES [Water, Gas-Energy, Food], which in turn may lead to GEOPOL CRISIS[ES]???

* TOPIX > VARIOUS > SCIENTISTS: GLOBAL WARMING COULD LEAD TO TSUNAMIS AND EARTHQUAKES.

PLus SEASLIDES + LANDSLIDES + METHANE BUBBLES +....@.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2009-09-21 18:37  

#9  BTW Flannery isn't a climate scientist. His degree was in English Literature and he worked most of his life as a museum administrator.

From Wikipedia:

In 1985, Flannery earned a doctorate at the University of New South Wales for his work on the evolution of macropods. Prior to this, he completed a Bachelor of Arts degree (1977) at La Trobe University [2] and a masters degree in earth sciences at Monash University. He holds bachelor degrees in English and Earth Science, a doctorate in Palaeontology, and has contributed to over 90 scientific papers.

Go read the rest. I don't see any sign of a weak career. Leave the ad hominems to the leftists.

He's right that the climate changes abruptly, and that that's a worry. He's wrong to think we understand the reasons. He seems like a pretty bright guy, and I suspect he'll modulate his opinion soon enough as the evidence piles up.
Posted by: KBK   2009-09-21 18:29  

#8  "Climate Change has become always has been a war ... on Science itself."

Fixed that for ya', Bart.
Posted by: Barbara Skolaut   2009-09-21 18:17  

#7  Climate Change has become a war ... on Science itself.
Posted by: Black Bart Ebberens7700   2009-09-21 16:54  

#6  "Climate deal failure 'could mean war'"

Promises, promises....

As philb says, Flannery's an uninformed idiot who's hopped on the bandwagon he thinks will bring him fame and fortune. Tim Blair may have something to say about that. ;-p
Posted by: Barbara Skolaut   2009-09-21 15:43  

#5  His degree was in English Literature and he worked most of his life as a museum administrator. Until he discovered the climate pundit gig

sounds like the exacting life experience and training necessary to be a geopolitical nostradamus
Posted by: Frank G   2009-09-21 15:42  

#4  Flannery predicted the city of Perth would have to be abandoned because climate change would mean we would run out of water.

We have just had a record number of consecutive days of rain.

BTW Flannery isn't a climate scientist. His degree was in English Literature and he worked most of his life as a museum administrator. Until he discovered the climate pundit gig.
Posted by: phil_b   2009-09-21 15:25  

#3  Bullshit "Science" needs Bullshit "Regulation".
Posted by: Redneck Jim   2009-09-21 14:59  

#2  Well it's good to be a superpower in that case.

Personally I think failed states will continue to happen and thus everything he predicts will happen. But they won't happen because of climate, folks like this guy will blame the climate of course, but fact is the third world is corrupt and run by total idiots (as opposed to the first world which is semi-corrupt and semi-run by total idiots).
Posted by: rjschwarz   2009-09-21 13:20  

#1  When the rubes aren't buying the con, double down the fear factor! /sarc off
Posted by: Procopius2k   2009-09-21 12:20  

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