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| Afghanistan |
| StrategyPage: Traditional Values, Changing Landscape |
| 2009-07-02 |
| A lot of the "Taliban" violence, isn't caused by the Taliban. What is happening is the normal reaction of rural Afghans to new economic opportunities. Since September 11, 2001, the Afghan economy has been booming, with average annual growth of close to ten percent. This is happening to the poorest country in Asia, where about half the population is considered living below the poverty line, and there is 40 percent unemployment. In response to this, certain tribal traditions (especially among the Pushtun tribes in the south) developed over the centuries. The most popular of these traditions is "grab whatever you can, at any opportunity." Thus "loot" (goodies stolen from someone not belonging to your tribe) is a big deal, and a good thing (for the looter, of course.) The Taliban believe in traditional values, especially those that encourage and justify obtaining loot. So a lot of the gunmen thought to be working for the Taliban, aren't. They are just guys with guns taking advantage of the situation. Many of those civilians killed or kidnapped by the Taliban, were actually done by bandits (some of whom will claim to be Taliban, as that makes them more intimidating.) With the increased number of troops available, U.S. and NATO commanders are planning many more operations against known targets that, until now, they simply could not hit because they did not have enough troops. Over the last few years, intelligence capabilities have found far more targets than there were troops available to go after. This was one reason for the call, over the last two years, for more armed UAVs. These could be used to attack many targets. But often you wanted troops there as well, to take prisoners and collect documents and other evidence. The enemy is elusive, and basically operating like bandits. The Taliban and drug gangs either buy off or, more usually, terrorize any civilians or police they encounter. But they can't do that with the foreign troops or, usually, the Afghan soldiers. But there are only about 100,000 soldiers (foreign and Afghan) in southern Afghanistan, where all the action is. There they face 10,000-15,000 Taliban, drug gang fighters and bandits. You can't put troops in every one of the thousands of villages or town neighborhoods where some thugs might show up and threaten pain or death to any who do not cooperate. But with more troops, more "clear and hold" operations can be conducted, to clear the gangs and Taliban out of large areas, establish a police and security (local armed volunteers) force to keep the gangs from returning, and moving on. The gangs will resist this, but they are not guaranteed success in fighting against "clear and hold." Most Afghans just want to be left alone, and given decent odds, will fight to achieve that. More foreign troops can even those odds. The intensity of the fighting is increasing, but Taliban casualties continue to 5-10 times those of the foreign and Afghan forces. The Taliban are still unable to defeat, or even hold their ground, when fighting foreign troops. The Afghan troops are also getting better, and usually win any pitched battles with the Taliban or drug gangs (and you often have to interrogate prisoners or search the bodies before you can identify who you just defeated.) The Taliban and drug gangs are avoiding contact with foreign troops, and shifting their efforts to the use of roadside bombs. But these are also dangerous to use, because the growing number of UAVs and intelligence units are locating the roadside bomb crews, and putting them out of action. As in Iraq, the bomb crews are paid for their work. But it's not too difficult to discover who is making more money in an area, and trace that back to bomb making (rather than drugs, or a relative in the West sending home money). The foreign intelligence troops are often as dangerous as the foreign infantry because of that. |
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