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China-Japan-Koreas
U.S. 'Likely' Could Intercept North Korean Missile
2009-06-01
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. ground-based interceptor rockets would "likely" knock out a long-range North Korean missile before it could reach the American mainland, the Pentagon's independent testing official said today.

"I believe we have a reasonable chance" of an intercept, Charles McQueary, director of operational test and evaluation, said in an interview as North Korea defied international condemnation of a nuclear test with another short-range missile launch.

"I'd put it 'likely' -- than 'highly likely' -- as opposed to putting it 'unlikely," he said on his last day in office after almost three years as the top weapons evaluator for the Defense Department.

North Korea on April 4 attempted to launch a satellite on what some analysts said was a three-stage rocket capable of carrying a warhead that might reach the U.S. The reclusive regime has launched six short-range missiles this week that, while not able to strike the U.S., have refocused attention on American defenses.

A defense official in Washington said there is no major movement of personnel and equipment at a North Korean site to suggest that a second long-range missile launch is imminent. The official said there is activity that points to possible preparations for a launch by August.

"There's been very little testing so far" of the U.S. ground-based system compared with other missile-defense platforms, such as those on ships, McQueary said. "I wish we were further along, but we are not."

Still, "if North Korea launched a missile or two against us, we wouldn't sit back and say, 'I wonder if we have enough test data in order to launch,'" McQueary said. "We would launch."
The SM-3 and THAAD systems are, apparently, further along in testing, and military commanders apparently have more confidence in them than in the GIS. If the Norks really do launch a test ICBM that comes anywhere close to the U.S., however, the GIS is what we need to knock it out of the sky.
In that scenario, the U.S. would likely launch multiple rockets at the incoming missile to raise the chance of an intercept, he said.

The ground-based Midcourse Defense system is a network of interceptor rockets linked by satellites, radar and communications networks. Chicago-based Boeing is the prime contractor. Northrop Grumman Corp., Raytheon Co. and Orbital Sciences Corp. are the top subcontractors. The ground-based system, counting a December test, has had eight successful intercepts in 13 attempts since 1999.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates limited the number of interceptors that will be placed in the ground to 30 from 44 in April as part of an overhaul of defense programs. Gates said 30 is an adequate number to handle a North Korean threat.
Posted by:Steve White

#14  WORLD MIL FORUM > NINE REASONS WHY CHINA DOESN'T HAVE TO SEND PLA GROUND TROOPS INTO NORTH KOREA.

To wit,
* NO GEN MACARTHUR, etc. calling to expand the ground war into CHINA nor demanding to use nuclear bombs agz same,
* MORE IMPORTANT REGIONAL GEOPOLITICAL FOCII, i.e. AFPAK = Spread of ISLAMIST MILTERRS, INDIA EYEING PAKISTAN, ANTI-PRC JAPANESE AMBITIONS.
* MODERN WARS now to be fought by AIRCRAFT, MISSLES, SATELLITES + CYBERSPACE, with traditional Army troops in SUPPORT ROLES???
* CHINA'S NATIONAL POLICY of "HIDING ONE'S TRUE CAPACITIES" + DEV THE PRC ECONOMY. A new KOrean War II will force China to reveal its strengths and weaknesses when not desired, plus forestall on-going modernization drives.
* China just joined the WTO + desires PROACTIVE influence in other International ventures.
* SPILLOVER OF ANY KOREAN WAR II VEE TAIWAN, i.e. INSPIR TAIWAN TO FORMALLY DECLARE INDEPENDENCE FROM BEIJING.
* CHINA'S YOUNG PEOPLE ARE NEITHER PRO-WAR NOR ANTI-WESTERN [fka as BEING "TOO SOFT"], AND TEND TO FROWN UPON ANY FORM OF MILITARY SERVICE IN FAVOR OF MODERNITY.

DITTO FOR NORTH KOREA'S YOUTH.

D *** NG IT, MORIARITY, ITS OFFICIAL, TWITTER + "GIRLS GONE WILD" HAD RUINED WAR FOR EVERYBODY!
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2009-06-01 23:43  

#13  WORLD MIL FORUM > IIUC RUSSIAN MEDIAS: NORTH KOREA CANNOT AFFORD TO PRODUCE MAJOR/LARGE ICBMS [explosive yield, throw-weight], GIVING THE US-ALLIES THE ADVANTAGE IFF WAR BREAKS OUT. NORTH KOREA CAN WAGE LIMITED/SPORADIC MIL ACTIONS BUT THERE IS NO NEED FOR US-LED GENERAL/HIGH-INTENSITY WAR. NORTH KOREA STILL HAS 28 OLD RUSS-MADE IL-28 BOMBERS CAPABLE OF DELIVERING NUCBOMBS.

OTOH, ALERT FIVE > [Breaking]CHINA MOVES ITS AWACS [EJ-2000]CLOSER TO THE NORTH KOREAN BORDER.
Is CHIN suspecting truuble as the EJ-2000 is believed capable of detecting EM residues e.g. NUCTESTS, as well as POST-STRIKE NUC FALLOUT???
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2009-06-01 23:25  

#12  hey 3dc - you said it..
Posted by: Harcourt Clager8069   2009-06-01 21:43  

#11  Also from WMF > IIUC JAPAN's H-2A SPACE ROCKET CAN EASILY BE USED/CONVERTED FOR PREEMPTIVE MIL STRIKES. Back ini 2006, Koizumi's CHIEF CABINET SECRETARY SINZO ABE said that JAPAN NEEDS THE ABILITY TO STRIKE BACK AT ENEMY MILITARY BASES IN ORDER TO ADEQUATELY PROTECT ITSELF, as the US-JAPAN Treat only allows Japan to strike back to defend herself from a first aggressor(s); +

*SAME > IIUC CHINA IS NOW THE ONLY COUNTRY SURROUNDED BY ENEMY MISSLES AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS. CHINA HAS OFFCIALLY DEMANDED THAT NORTH KOREA COMMIT TO DENUCLEARIZATION AND RETURN TO THE SIX-PARTY TALKS. AS THE NEAREST CHIN TERRITORY IS ONLY 100 KMS FROM NORTH KOREA'S MAIN TESTING BASE, ANY LIMITED NUCLEAR OR MAJOR CONVENTIONAL WAR AGZ NORTH KOREA WILL UNDOUBTEDLY DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY AFFECT AND SPILLOVER INTO CHINA'S TERRITORIES.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2009-06-01 20:06  

#10  As per REDDIT, NOKOR's offcial statement > basically warns or states that ANY HOSTILE ACT BY THE UNSC = UNO, AS CO-SIGNATORY TO THE 1953 ARMISTICE, MAY RESULT IN AN IMMEDIATE ABROGATION OF THE ARMISTICE.

LAST STATEMENT DEMAND > Methinks NOKOR hath now also INSULTED POTUS OBAMA = THE US DEMOPARTY by telling the US DEMS TO "LICK THE STICK" of the USGOVT's "CARROT-N-STICK APPROACH TO NK POLICY.

IOW, by the above "LICK THE STICK" descriptor IMO NOKOR is telling the OBAMA-US DEMS (1) THEY'RE GAY; OR (2)TO GO BE GAY SOMEWHERE AND NOT BOTHER NOKOR ANYMORE???

D *** NG IT , MORIARITY, "CYRANO D'BERGERAC" GAZETTE > "KOREAN SPICY SQUID" , ETC. WILL NO LONGER SERVED AT THE FRENCH COURT = OBAMA WHITE HOUSE!
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2009-06-01 19:53  

#9  3dc - actually that is the best option I've heard all day!
Posted by: Kelly   2009-06-01 19:02  

#8  What about... being sane about this ... and shooting the missile at the best point in its trip - LIKE ON THE FRICKING TRAIN!
Posted by: 3dc   2009-06-01 18:45  

#7  A defense official in Washington said there is no major movement of personnel and equipment at a North Korean site to suggest that a second long-range missile launch is imminent. The official said there is activity that points to possible preparations for a launch by August.

Might wanna speed up your timetable, Mr. Defense Official...

SEOUL, South Korea – North Korea has transported its most advanced missile, believed to be capable of reaching Alaska, to a site where it could be ready for launch in a week or two, news reports said Monday.

The reclusive communist country was also reportedly strengthening its defenses and conducting amphibious assault exercises along its western shore, near disputed waters where deadly naval clashes with South Korea have occurred in the past.

With the launch, Pyongyang could also thumb its nose at U.N. Security Council attempts to rein it in after last week's nuclear test and a series of short-range missile launches.

South Korean media have speculated that the North wants to time the launch for around June 16, when South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has a summit in Washington with President Barack Obama.

South Korea's Yonhap news agency said the missile had been sent by train to the newly completed missile facility of Dongchang-ni, about 40 miles (60 kilometers) from the Chinese border. Yonhap, quoting government sources, said the missile could be ready to launch in a week or two. South Korean defense and intelligence officials refused to comment.
Posted by: tu3031   2009-06-01 10:50  

#6  Importantly, the US should not just shoot down this missile, but should use the most outdated, known technology available to do it, using a layered anti-missile approach. This way, it will deny third parties information about our newest technologies, as well as doing one in the eye of the Norks.

This can be done through the use of passive systems that can very accurately track the flight path of the Nork missile. With them, we could use just ordinary IR guided missiles to take out that missile. By layering, we have multiple chances, which strongly improve our odds.

It is especially humiliating, like defeating a swordsman by using a broom, making him look utterly incompetent.

Of course, at the same time being very prepared for any attack from the North.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2009-06-01 10:42  

#5  newc ,I was thinking the same thing . At their next test shoot the damn thing down just as a warning but of course Nobama doesn't have the balls
Posted by: funky skunk   2009-06-01 10:37  

#4  U.S. ground-based interceptor rockets would "likely" knock out a long-range North Korean missile before it could reach the American mainland...

Oh, well that's OK th---hey!
Posted by: Angie Schultz   2009-06-01 08:07  

#3  "I'd put it 'likely' -- than 'highly likely' -- as opposed to putting it 'unlikely,"

Gee, thats good of you to be so candid. I really admire doubt in a leader when it comes to public admission of possible failure to further embolden the enemy. How about we just hit ourselves in the head with a shovel repeatedly?

Am I wrong, or does it almost seems like someone in gummint is longing for a chance to test the GIS, am I correct in that observation?
Posted by: GirlThursday   2009-06-01 05:34  

#2  WORLD MIL FORUM > IIUC PRC VPres YI JIN-PING has repor informed SOUTH KOREAN DM LEE SANG-SI THAT NORTH KOREA'S NUCLEAR TESTS ARE A VIOLATION OF CHINA'S CORE PRINCIPLES AND NATIONAL INTERESTS, and that NOKOR mus prevent further dterioartion of its situation.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2009-06-01 03:27  

#1  Do it.
Posted by: newc   2009-06-01 01:14  

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