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| Science & Technology |
| Models Say Sea Ice Shrinking Despite Growing |
| 2009-04-03 |
| Arctic sea ice is melting so fast most of it could be gone in 30 years. A new analysis of changing conditions in the region, using complex computer models of weather and climate, says conditions that had been forecast by the end of the century could occur much sooner. A change in the amount of ice is important because the white surface reflects sunlight back into space. When ice is replaced by dark ocean water that sunlight can be absorbed, warming the water and increasing the warming of the planet. The finding adds to concern about climate change caused by human activities such as burning fossil fuels, a problem that has begun receiving more attention in the Obama administration and is part of the G20 discussions under way in London. "Due to the recent loss of sea ice, the 2005-2008 autumn central Arctic surface air temperatures were greater than 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) above" what would be expected, the new study reports. That amount of temperature increase had been expected by the year 2070. The new report by Muyin Wang of the Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean and James E. Overland of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, appears in Friday's edition of the journal Geophysical Research Letters. They expect the area covered by summer sea ice to decline from about 2.8 million square miles normally to 620,000 square miles within 30 years. Last year's summer minimum was 1.8 million square miles in September, second lowest only to 2007 which had a minimum of 1.65 million square miles, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The Center said Arctic sea ice reached its winter maximum for this year at 5.8 million square miles on Feb. 28. That was 278,000 square miles below the 1979-2000 average making it the fifth lowest on record. The six lowest maximums since 1979 have all occurred in the last six years. Overland and Wang combined sea-ice observations with six complex computer models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to reach their conclusions. Combining several computer models helps avoid uncertainties caused by natural variability. Much of the remaining ice would be north of Canada and Greenland, with much less between Alaska and Russia in the Pacific Arctic. "The Arctic is often called the Earth's refrigerator because the sea ice helps cool the planet by reflecting the sun's radiation back into space," Wang said in a statement. "With less ice, the sun's warmth is instead absorbed by the open water, contributing to warmer temperatures in the water and the air." The study was supported by the NOAA Climate Change Program Office, the Institute for the Study of the Ocean and Atmosphere and the U.S. Department of Energy. Never let reality get in the way of a perfect model projection. If the model says the ice isn't there, then the ice isn't there. |
| Posted by:Anonymoose |
| #11 I'm putting together an email, a letter, and a small check to send to Mountain States Legal Foundation, with a copy to a couple of other groups (Judicial Watch, etc.) asking them to prepare to sue the President, the Congress, the EPA, Al Gore, and a dozen other groups (including the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change) for fraud in "pursuing legislation to reduce the impact of anthropogenic climate change". A computer model is NOT a fact. There is no computer model sufficiently complex enough to accurately depict current weather, much less what it will be 20, 30, 50, or 100 years from now. There has been sufficient new information made available that ties past and current trends to solar influence (sunspots, geomagnetic changes, solar wind, irradiance, and several other factors), ocean currents (La Nina/El Nino, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multiyear Oscillation), galactic cosmic rays/cloud cover, and other data, with a much stronger correlation than the rise in the level of non-H2O greenhouse gasses. There is no way in He$$ that roughly 2% (the percentage of atmospheric CO2 attributed to human activity) of 4% (the percentage of CO2 in greenhouse gasses) can control 99% of the changes in climate (2% of 4% is 0.0008 - eight ten-thousandths). The variation in water vapor (between 93% and 96% of all greenhouse gasses) is greater than the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. A drop of 0.1% in solar irradiation (which can happen due to a single coronal mass ejection) can result in a drop in world temperatures of up to 0.5degrees centigrade. Our government is filled with people who have forgotten too much of how the world works, and who think the rest of us are that stupid, also. We need to prove them different. Suing the socks off of them for a FELONY (fraud) would do the trick. That fraud is going to cost all of us tens of thousands of dollars a year if it isn't challenged. |
| Posted by: Old Patriot 2009-04-03 22:39 |
| #10 Uh, uh, ... "B.C. COMICS' TALKING CLAMHEAD > "FROZEN ICE ARE POLITICALLY CORRECT/CLINTONIAN"??? Gut Nuthin - D *** NG IT, THATS TWICE THIS AM! |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2009-04-03 21:56 |
| #9 These models are better... |
| Posted by: Mullah Richard 2009-04-03 13:33 |
| #8 I hate to be snarky (not really, I love being snarky), but when I saw the title of the article, I was thinking it was another announcement by people living in a fantasy world doing unrealistic work making pronouncements because their handlers keep telling them how smart they are. Ya' know, Hollywood types. Hmm! Maybe I'm not too far off the mark. |
| Posted by: AlmostAnonymous5839 2009-04-03 13:00 |
| #7 "with six complex computer models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to reach their conclusions" I suspect the models used (Hanson, et al) should flag the conclusions as invalid. |
| Posted by: tipover 2009-04-03 12:52 |
| #6 Won't need to enlarge or replace the Panama Canal then, will we? And we'd be able to tanker north slope hydrocarbons instead of building more pipelines. That ice is floating so melting it won't raise sea level either. Could make a difference in North Atlantic sea currents though - no idea if for the better or worse. |
| Posted by: Glenmore 2009-04-03 11:57 |
| #5 Instead of "Models(That say whatevr the modler wants) how about just getting pictures from the Space Station, or from Hubble that show the truth? We DO have Space capability, USE IT. |
| Posted by: Shomp Hatfield RJ 2009-04-03 11:48 |
| #4 Even the models are afraid they will lose funding as the Global Warming hoax is exposed!!! |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2009-04-03 11:45 |
| #3 It's easy to make new annual records when you only have 30 years of data. making it the fifth lowest on record = normal within 1 standard deviation |
| Posted by: ed 2009-04-03 11:24 |
| #2 oops.. make that 150k square miles |
| Posted by: TomAnon 2009-04-03 11:09 |
| #1 "Last year's summer minimum was 1.8 million square miles in September, second lowest only to 2007 which had a minimum of 1.65 million square miles, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center" I believe that indicates Ice Coverage Grew by 15 million square miles from 2007 to 2008.... |
| Posted by: TomAnon 2009-04-03 11:08 |