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India-Pakistan
Military may have to step in
2009-03-08
By Humayun Gauhar
Humayun Gauhar ghost authored In the Line of Fire, the autobiography of President General Pervez Musharraf. His father Altaf Gauhar ghost authored Friends Not Masters, the autobiography of President General Ayub Khan
COUPS occur in Pakistan only when the politicians have created such a mess that the stability of the state is threatened. Then they become unavoidable.
And frequent ...
After nine years of military rule, albeit with an elected government for six of them, the army is loath to intervene again so soon. Which is why it is working behind the scenes to effect a rapprochement before it is too late between President Asif Zardari and his rival Nawaz Sharif, the former prime minister and leader of his own Pakistan Muslim League faction, the PML-N, with its support base in the country's most powerful province, the Punjab.

People fear that if this week's "long march" of lawyers to Islamabad gets out of hand and there are riots and unrest, the army could be forced to intervene.

There are certain pitfalls that any sensible Pakistan government should avoid if it wishes to avert a coup. One is to avoid economic meltdown - but this has already taken place with a stock market crash, the rupee devalued and a balance of payments deficit.

An increasing number are remembering Pervez Musharraf, the former president, with nostalgia and clamouring for his return.

Other political advice would include: do not damage Pakistan's strategic ties to China, do not confront the powerful spy service (the Inter-Service Intelligence agency), do not compromise Pakistan's nuclear assets, do not compromise with India on Kashmir and do not let the country be parcelled up by ethnic or sectarian groups as has occurred in Swat, in the NorthWest Frontier Province, which has already been ceded to the Taliban.

Whether the long march and the sit-in around parliament can be averted is a big question. If order breaks down, then some form of army intervention may be on the cards.
Posted by:john frum

#3  What if the mess was created by the military, as is most definitely the current situation? Is this possibly the Pakistani version of preparing the electorate for what we* decide must be?

*For a given value of "we", of course, in which that "we" who are reading this post are in no way members. (Read that sentence again -- I promise it will eventually make sense.)
Posted by: trailing wife   2009-03-08 13:54  

#2  Lawyers are near the front line for rule of law. Killing them would simply empower religious radicals and advance Sharia. How about confronting the ISI and compromising on Kashmir instead?
Posted by: Scooter McGruder   2009-03-08 13:36  

#1  How about first thing, killing the lawyers? It would do a lot for stabilizing the country.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2009-03-08 10:35  

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