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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Strategypage: Hamas Is Shocked And Awed
2008-12-31
December 29, 2008: Several hundred Egyptian border police sealed five breaches in the security wall between Gaza and Egypt. Hamas refused to allow Palestinian wounded to go to Egypt for medical care (which Egypt was ready to provide), while Egyptian border police fired on uninjured Palestinians trying to flee Gaza. Egypt, like most Arab nations, refused to absorb any Palestinian refugees from the 1948 Israeli war of Independence. Israel, however, absorbed the equal number of Jews driven out of Arab nations after 1948.

Israeli smart bombs and missiles continue to fall, and Palestinian casualties are over 1,100. About 10,000 Israeli ground troops, including nearly a thousand armored vehicles, are assembled near the Gaza security fence. Hamas admitted that the attacks had made a serious dent in their rocket supply. On the first day of the bombing. Hamas fired over 110 rockets and mortar shells into southern Israel, but that fell to twenty the next day. And today there is no increase in Hamas rocket attacks. So far, Israel has hit at least 300 targets in Gaza, usually with one smart bomb or missile. Hamas appears to be surprised at the detailed targeting data the Israelis had assembled. Meanwhile, Israeli UAVs constantly circle over Gaza, apparently collecting new targeting data for additional attacks. Hamas has brought more of its 122mm BM-21 rockets out and tried to fire them. These weigh 150 pounds and are nine feet long. These have 45 pound warheads, and have a maximum range of over 20 kilometers. Because they are unguided, they are only reliably effective if fired in salvos, or at large targets (like cities, or large military bases or industrial complexes.) Hamas has been getting these rockets from Iran, and they are smuggled in via the dozens of tunnels under the Gaza-Egyptian border.

A ground assault is more dangerous for Israel, exposing more Israelis to possible injury. But only by sending in the ground troops can Israel unearth all of the Hamas rocket arsenals, workshops and headquarters. While Hamas has long prepared to defend against an Israeli ground assault, the Israelis have also trained hard and long to carry these operations out effectively. Who is better prepared will soon be revealed.

Israel is apparently trying to cripple Hamas military capability, forcing the terrorist organization to devote resources to rebuilding, instead of attacking Israel. Israel also hopes that anti-Hamas Palestinians will rise up and give power to Fatah. This is a long shot. Meanwhile, a ground offensive would recover lots of valuable intelligence, as well as capturing some key Hamas operatives (who could be used to trade for an Israeli soldier kidnapped two years ago.) Israel has an opportunity here to demoralize Hamas, and their Shia ally Hezbollah in Lebanon (both are supported by Iran, who will also take a beating if Hamas does not win some kind of "victory.")

The response in the Arab world is not quite what Hamas expected. Because Hamas is seen as a puppet of Shia Iran, many mainstream Sunni Islamic radicals are not terribly upset that Hamas is getting hammered. In Iraq, a Sunni suicide bomber attacked a pro-Hamas demonstration (killing two and wounding 16). There are still over 20,000 Palestinians in Iraq, and they are generally hated because of Palestinian support for Saddam Hussein and his murderous Baath Party. Most Palestinians are also Sunni.
Posted by:tu3031

#8  Hamas, Hezbollah...

Sock on Iran's left hand, sock on Iran's right hand.
Posted by: OldSpook   2008-12-31 22:27  

#7  Cynthia McKinney

[urp!!!]
Posted by: Boss Chager2127   2008-12-31 19:48  

#6  Jimmy Carter.
Posted by: Mike N.   2008-12-31 19:31  

#5  Reuters.
Posted by: Bright Pebbles   2008-12-31 16:54  

#4  touche
Posted by: rabid whitetail   2008-12-31 15:17  

#3  Who likes Hamas?

Dennis Kucinich
AFP
Guardian
UN
EU
Hizbollah

is that enough?
Posted by: mhw   2008-12-31 15:10  

#2  "besides Iran who does like hamas"

Iran is only using Hamas as a tool. Couldn't care less about them, otherwise.
Posted by: Mullah Richard   2008-12-31 14:39  

#1  besides Iran who does like hamas
Posted by: rabid whitetail   2008-12-31 13:39  

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