Warning on Britain's grey population
Karen Dunnell, the National Statistician, will bring together a wide range of evidence on the growing number of older people, and examine the changes this will bring to society and the economy. It is the first time the National Statistician has focused on the issue in her "annual article", which offers an in-depth examination of a particular aspect of Britain's population figures.
At the same time, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish figures showing that the UK's birth rate surged last year to a 30-year high, driven by a baby boom among immigrant families. Among all babies born in the UK, 23 per cent had mothers who were born abroad. Whereas British-born women have only 1.7 children each on average, the figure is 3.9 for Bangladeshi-born women in Britain, and almost five for Pakistani-born women.
| Which means that as Britain ages, the younger crowd will be increasingly disinclined to pay for them, since the younger crowd will be increasingly disaffected and pushing for a different system of governance and beliefs ... |
An ONS spokesman said: "We will make some projections on what is going to happen. They will be based on existing statistical factors and will not take account of any circumstances that may change between now and then. The National Statistician is presenting a picture of society as it is now and how it could develop, to help policy-makers in their future decisions."
The NHS already restricts access to expensive new drugs that could benefit older age groups -- such as sufferers of Alzheimer's and macular degeneration, the leading cause of blindness -- amid fears that the costs could cripple the health service.
| Which is already crippled and is going to get worse even if they restrict access to drugs. It's the 'Children of Men' scenario even though babies are still being born. |
Three months ago the ONS revealed that Britain is home to more pensioners than children for the first time in the country's history. There are 11.58 million pensioners - classed as men over 65 and women over 60 - compared with 11.52 million under-16s. In 1971, a quarter of the nation was under 16, while 15 per cent were of pensionable age.
The number of over-80s has almost doubled to 2.7 million over the past 30 years. They are the fastest-growing age group as a result of medical advances, and their number is expected to continue rising dramatically. The state retirement age is to increase to 68 for men and women by 2050, but the sharp rise in the elderly population is likely to lead to calls for the retirement age to be raised still further.
Britain's population profile is ageing despite record immigration and the rise in the number of immigrant women having children. According to the ONS a record number of immigrants settled in the UK last year. Around one in 10 of the population was born abroad, 6.3 million people in all.
Statistics from the European Union in August said Britain's population is set to grow from the current 61 million to 76.6 million by 2060, outstripping Germany's along the way to become the largest in Europe. The same report said that the EU as a whole is facing a "pensions timebomb", with a prediction that there will be only two people of working age to pay the pension and healthcare costs for each person aged 65 or over when the EU population reaches 506 million by 2060. At present there are four people of working age for each person aged 65 or over.
Earlier this year a House of Lords committee chaired by Lord Wakeham, the former Conservative cabinet minister, and including two former Tory chancellors, Lord Lawson and Lord Lamont, warned that continued immigration would not help to defuse the "pensions timebomb". |