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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Russia gives Georgia an ultimatum |
| 2008-08-11 |
| SENAKI, Georgia: Russia issued an ultimatum to Georgia on Monday to disarm its troops along the boundary with the pro-Russian separatist enclave of Abkhazia as Russian tanks rolled across the internal border and occupied a military base in western Georgia. The move was a sign that fighting could escalate on a second, western front after the conflict initially broke out last week around South Ossetia, the separatist enclave farther east. President Dmitri Medvedev of Russia said its forces had "completed a significant part of the operations to oblige Georgia, the Georgian authorities, to restore peace to South Ossetia," according to a transcript of his remarks with Anatoly Serdyukov, the defense minister, on the Kremlin Web site. Separately, Russia said it was seeking an emergency meeting with NATO to discuss the crisis. But the Russian Defense Ministry said that armored vehicles and troops had overrun a military base in the Georgian town of Senaki, about 40 kilometers, or 25 miles, south of the Abkhazian border, suggesting that Russian troops had already begun to move south from the enclave into Georgia proper. The Russian ultimatum, issued by Major General Sergei Chaban, commander of Russian peacekeeping forces in Abkhazia, called for Georgian troops to disarm in the Zugdidi district, along the border between Abkhazia and Georgia. Russia has poured extra forces into Abkhazia, where it now has at least 9,000 troops and 350 armored vehicles. Giga Bokeria, a Georgian official close to President Mikheil Saakashvili, said the ultimatum raised alarms that Russian troops would now make a broader push into Georgian territory in the west of the country. Many Georgian troops have been tied up in fighting farther east, near South Ossetia. A pivotal question in the conflict, which has involved heavy fighting since late last week, is whether Russia would push beyond those regions and farther into Georgia. On Sunday, a reporter for The New York Times saw an armored personnel carrier emblazoned with the letters MT, the Russian abbreviation for peacekeepers, on the street in Senaki and on Monday saw tanks and troops occupying the military base there. However, there was no immediate sign of fighting. To the east, civilians were fleeing Gori, a city south of South Ossetia that is a major staging area for the Georgian military. In Tbilisi, an ambulance driver from Gori showed video footage on his mobile phone of fire in the city and said Russian troops had taken over; Russia denied having any troops there. Residents were also fleeing the port city of Poti, said Karina Tsotsoria, a Georgian woman living in Moscow, who said she had just spoken on the phone to her husband, Badri, who had fled their home when he saw television footage of approaching Russian tanks. "He's afraid," she said. "We don't know what their goals are. How can you be sure, when tanks approach your city, that they won't shoot?" She expressed anger, pointing out that Poti is far from South Ossetia, where the fighting began. Saakashvili issued a furious denunciation of Russia on Monday, accusing it of "ethnic cleansing" and saying the Kremlin's actions constituted "the preplanned, cold-blooded, premeditated murder of a small country." He equated Russian military action with war crimes committed in the Balkans in the 1990s. "What else can happen for the world to wake up and see what's at stake?" he said at a news conference in the Georgian capital, Tbilisi. "Didn't we have enough experience from the Balkans?" Russian officials say Georgia provoked the assault on its troops by attacking South Ossetia last week, causing heavy civilian casualties. The Kremlin said that its actions since then have been intended to strike at Georgian military forces that fired on its peacekeeping troops in South Ossetia and that it did not intend a broader offensive deeper into Georgia. But Georgian officials said that over the weekend Russia had expanded its attacks on Georgia, moving tanks and troops through South Ossetia and advancing toward Gori. That maneuver, the Russian bombing of Tbilisi, and then the occupation of a Georgian military base in Senaki seemed to suggest that Russia's aims in the conflict after four days of fighting had gone beyond securing South Ossetia and Abkhazia to weakening the armed forces of Georgia, a former Soviet republic and an ally of the United States whose Western leanings have long irritated the Kremlin. On Monday, in a conference call with reporters, Saakashvili said Georgian and Russian troops had fought fierce battles overnight as Russian tanks advanced toward Gori before being driven back, with heavy casualties on both sides. Russian planes also bombed targets across Georgia on Monday, including roads and bridges, he said, before fleeing to a bomb shelter because Russian planes were flying over the presidential palace in Tbilisi. Explosions were seen in the fields around Gori around 12:35 p.m. Monday. There was no evidence of bombing in civilian areas of the town, a major military and transportation hub. But from high ground, plumes of white smoke and clouds on the outskirts were visible. It was unclear whether the explosions were caused by airstrikes or by shelling. Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner of France was expected to arrive in Gori on Monday as part of a European mission to try to mediate the conflict. Kouchner has been trying to arrange a cease-fire and Saakashvili said Georgia had signed one. But the Russian Foreign Ministry said it would agree to a cease-fire only if Georgia pulled its troops out of South Ossetia and signed an agreement banning the use of force against the territory. Saakashvili has made reuniting the territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia with Georgia a centerpiece of his presidency. On Monday, an Abkhaz official said that Abkhaz forces, backed by Russian paratroopers, would kill Georgian troops if they did not leave Kodori Gorge, the only part of the territory where Georgia has military forces. Abkhaz troops blocked the gorge and proposed the formation of a humanitarian corridor to allow Georgian troops and civilians to leave safely, the Abkhaz defense minister, Mirab Kishmariya, told the Russian news agency Interfax. "If the Georgian troops don't take advantage of this opportunity, then an operation to eliminate them will begin," the minister said. Russia's escalation of the fighting, after Georgia offered a cease-fire and said it had pulled its troops out of South Ossetia, set the stage for an intense diplomatic confrontation with the United States. Two senior Western officials said that it was unclear whether Russia intended a full invasion of Georgia but that its aims could go as far as destroying its armed forces or overthrowing Saakashvili. "They seem to have gone beyond the logical stopping point," one senior Western diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity under normal diplomatic protocol. The fighting raised tensions between Russia and its former Cold War foes to their highest level in decades. President George W. Bush has promoted Georgia as a bastion of democracy, helped strengthen its military and urged that NATO grant the country to membership. Georgia serves as a major conduit for oil flowing from Russia and Central Asia to the West. But Russia, emboldened by windfall profits from oil exports, is showing a resolve to reassert its dominance in a region it has always considered its "near abroad." The military action, which has involved air, naval and missile attacks, is the largest engagement by Russian forces outside its borders since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Andrew E. Kramer reported from Gori, Georgia; Anne Barnard from Moscow; and Michael Schwirtz from Senaki, Georgia. Reporting was contributed by Nicholas Kulish from Tbilisi, Georgia; Helene Cooper from Washington; Joseph Sywenkiy from Gori, Georgia; and Katrin Bennhold and Tom Rachman from Paris. |
| Posted by:john frum |
| #24 bb: Zhang Fei. You are a brilliant man! (or a woman?) If you reconsider your stance on democracy and will be willing to pander to any and each dictatorship that surrounds Russia, then why not just accept Russia as is, imperfect as it is. I fail to see the point. Why don't you just admit that you simply hate the russians for the sake of it, so that we can end this highly intellectual pretense. The Central Asian dictatorships aren't Imperial Russia, an expansionist country with limitless territorial ambitions. Which is saying something, since at 17m sq km, Russia is 70% larger than the second largest country in the world. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2008-08-11 23:57 |
| #23 blimpity_blimpity_bla - careful - you're heading deeper into fantasyland with GDP projections four decades ahead. China passes the if two events occur - they absorb the Russian far east, and the US of North America doesn't come into existence. Both occurring is unlikely, but one most likely will. Oh - and they have some work to do on that whole "rule of law" thing. Admittedly they've had quite a while to work on it, and since a Shakespeare or Magna Carta seem to arise every millenia or so, you'd think the odds favor it, but it has'nt happened yet. |
| Posted by: Halliburton - Asymmetrical Reply Division 2008-08-11 23:55 |
| #22 BB: Since China is expected to surpass the U.S. GDP by two-fold by 2050, China should help Russia in that department. By that time, I expect China to help itself to Mongolia, then Siberia. They're closer, and China does have historical claims to both. By that time, Russia will simply be a Chinese satellite state. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2008-08-11 23:54 |
| #21 Zhang Fei. You are a brilliant man! (or a woman?) If you reconsider your stance on democracy and will be willing to pander to any and each dictatorship that surrounds Russia, then why not just accept Russia as is, imperfect as it is. I fail to see the point. Why don't you just admit that you simply hate the russians for the sake of it, so that we can end this highly intellectual pretense. |
| Posted by: blimpity_blimpity_bla 2008-08-11 23:53 |
| #20 Just saw a state dept type on Fox late news talking about this. He was p-ssed off. They now seem to understand that the russians had planned this for some time. Russian troops were in both provinces under the guise of humanitarian work... fixing a railroad ... so it could be used for troops and ammo etc. Hopefully we will hear more about this. |
| Posted by: Legolas 2008-08-11 23:47 |
| #19 Buy the way, I don't really believe that much in asymetrical responses . . . they work mostly in ground warfare - guerilla type warfare. Russia should do what it can to do things symmetrically. Since China is expected to surpass the U.S. GDP by two-fold by 2050, China should help Russia in that department. |
| Posted by: blimpity_blimpity_bla 2008-08-11 23:47 |
| #18 Here's an interesting comment from the Italian foreign minister: But Frattini warned: “Asking for (the emergency summit) means moving toward a condemnation of Russia, a position that would be negative for all of Europe.” He added: “It’s important that the Europe of 27 not divide itself into factions and small groups. It should be a bridge between the United States and Russia if it wants to have a political role with any weight.” In other words, let's pretend Russian expansionism isn't a problem. No problem. We can play that game, too. We can pretend right along with them. Russia's a lot closer to Italy than it is to the US. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2008-08-11 23:45 |
| #17 SW: While it's completely wrong from the standpoint of both morality and international law, the Russians likely won't care and will relish the opportunity to use this disproportionate response to teach all their little neighbors a lesson. It occurs to me that our pro-democracy stance might have to be altered somewhat. If we're not confronting Russia, we would normally downgrade relationships with dictatorships. If we're confronting Russia, we need to establish better relationships with all the dictatorships than surround Russia. These dictatorships understand that Russia could march in and take their land at any moment. The only reason they're allied with Russia is because they fear our pressure over democratic reforms (the same kind of pressure that brought the Ayatollah Khomeini to power). Bottom line is that we need to stop being so moralistic about democracy with respect to the countries on Russia's borders. Changing our policy will crack the Shanghai Cooperation Organization wide open, since the Central Asians know that the major threats to their territorial sovereignty are Russia and China, both members. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2008-08-11 23:44 |
| #16 Halliburton, ha-ha very funny. But you know what - that would be good too! Whatever, the new boomers are entering the service, so . . . |
| Posted by: blimpity_blimpity_bla 2008-08-11 23:43 |
| #15 It's not a game, unfortunately an expensive response to the U.S. missile defense. Or you are one of those who believes annoying Condi Rice with her "trajectory" theory. You know what I am talking about? To justify the location of the interceptors in Poland . . . and the radar in Chech republic. |
| Posted by: blimpity_blimpity_bla 2008-08-11 23:40 |
| #14 blimpity_blimpity_bla - You forget the Illudium Q-36 Explosive Space Modulator - they need one of those too! |
| Posted by: Halliburton - Asymmetrical Reply Division 2008-08-11 23:37 |
| #13 blimpity_blimpity_bla If thats your game then we in the US need to take Cuba and Chavez down now. |
| Posted by: 3dc 2008-08-11 23:34 |
| #12 A couple of things Russia should do: (i) get out of the SALT treaty, replace engines on its medium range Iskander missles to extend their range beyond 500 km and move them into Kaliningrad to get ready to attack the interceptor sites, (ii) re-establish the radar listening post on Cuba, (iii) develop and put on Cuba interceptor missiles of its own as a "defensive" weapon - after all that's what americans have been telling us - its defensive, so no harm no faul; (iv) continue to rearm its ICBMs with hypesonic maneuvarable warheads; (iv) increase reliance on the submarine launched ICBMs and keep putting those new subs into service . . . and it should be alrighty after that, safe and sound. |
| Posted by: blimpity_blimpity_bla 2008-08-11 23:27 |
| #11 Dunno, JF. I suspect "General Comment" spoke for a lot of Russians when he posted this: I think that in its response to Georgian attack, Russia is being too timid. It should not confine itself to strikes just in S.O. territory and nearby Gori, for example, but should completely destroy Georgian military's command and control infrastructure throughout Georgia. [post #123 15:50 Russian Ground Forces Assault Vital Georgian City] A hostile, intact Georgian government and Army supplied by the US through Turkey would be extremely embarrasing to the Russian government, not to mention expensive. And it would send exactly the wrong message to the "near-abroad" countries, wouldn't it? Putin and Medvedev have a lot riding on a crushing victory at this point. The Russian leaders must answer to their constituencies, too. Turkey will be the decisive player in the coming days. |
| Posted by: mrp 2008-08-11 23:26 |
| #10 I would say now is a good time to activate the selective service and do a lottery. Don't actually draft anyone yet, but do a lottery, and bring back the REFORGER exercises with a small exercise right now. |
| Posted by: crosspatch 2008-08-11 23:09 |
| #9 My money is on a withdrawal after they batter the Georgians some more. They'll enforce S. Ossetia and Abkhazia "independence" of course with UN or Euro troops stationed in a DMZ buffer. Saakashvili is finished politically. He may have support now, but that is just Georgian patriotism when under attack. Defeat requires a scapegoat. |
| Posted by: john frum 2008-08-11 23:06 |
| #8 Kosovo is not a narco-state, whatever else it might be. The Serbs were removed from Kosovo because we knew what they'd do if they were allowed to do it. Please note their track record in Bosnia. And the Arabs have been looking to cleanse the Middle East for a substantial period of time. It isn't a new problem. OS is right: this is about Georgia. Kosovo, however, will be used to justify the Russian attack. The Rooskies will claim that the renegade 'autonomous provinces' want freedom, just as the Kosovars did, and 'want' to be part of Mother Russia. That might even be true. They'll be incorporated into Russia. The question is whether Georgia will lose its independence entirely. I think they just might. While it's completely wrong from the standpoint of both morality and international law, the Russians likely won't care and will relish the opportunity to use this disproportionate response to teach all their little neighbors a lesson. |
| Posted by: Steve White 2008-08-11 22:31 |
| #7 WAFF.com threads > PAKISTAN DOESN'T EXPECT SINO-PAKISTAN RELATIONS TO LAST [Will China usurp or dominate Paki in LT?] + TURKISH AND PAKISTAN DEFENCE DEALS + TURKISH COBRAS IN GEORGIA [agz Russia] + PAKISTAN EXPANDING ITS NUCLEAR OPERATIONS [weapons-grade =plutonium NucFac/NucRex]. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2008-08-11 22:19 |
| #6 CHINESE MIL FORUM > GEORGIA ASKS CHINA FOR HELP [UNSC Resolution]. No official comitment or response yet from China at this time as per Georgia's request. Also from SAME > POSTERS' DEBATE > RUSSIA's DOUBLE/MULTIPLE MOTIVES as per South Ossetian Conflict appears to primarily be: * TO STOP/PRECLUDE EUROS = NATO FROM BYPASSING RUSSIA VIA CENTRAL ASIAN OIL PIPELINE [thru Georgia], i.e. RUSS WANTS TO SEE EURO-$$$ LOVE. * OVERT WARNING TO US-NATO TO STOP "BULLYING" AND "CONTAINING" RUSSIA, OR ELSE, espec as per US GMD-BMD [USGMD milfacs in Georgia] + NATO membership for former Soviet SSRS !? REMINDER > RUSSIA = VLADVEDEV views AL QAEDA + TALIBAN AS DE FACTO US PROXIES, thus ISLAMIST MILITANT-TERR "SURGES" IN CENTRAL ASIA = PAN- ASIA in general is for Russ synonymous wid US = PRO-US MILPOL IMPERIALISM AGZ RUSSIA + EURASIA. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2008-08-11 22:12 |
| #5 |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2008-08-11 22:11 |
| #4 Russian pushes rocket launchers to Georgia http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LB679227.htm Let OS explain what this means. Tbilisi, the new Grosny |
| Posted by: Sherese Jones6358 2008-08-11 21:39 |
| #3 McZoid for you to ask for objectivity is laughable. You are so resoundingly bigoted and stupid that you are virtually self negating. You poor ignorant fool. Do you now see the jackbooted thuggery and ethnic cleansing that you have promoted? And FYI, this is about Georgia, not the balkans, so try staying on sopic, or you lose furhter what little (if any) credibility you have by engaging in a propaganda technique of dragging in alternate topic instead of answering the question at hand. That's evasion thereby negating your arguments -and basically losing the argument at hand. Your further "argumentum ad nauseam" also shows you to be losing the arguements you place repeatedly with the same error. So McZoid, answer: is Russia right to have invaded and subjugated the entire country of Georgia - and please back it up with reasons and reasoning, not just bald statments and your usual lie-filled anti-muslim diatribes about the "balkans" and saudi arabia. That's equivocation (which is invalid and means you lose yet again). |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2008-08-11 21:02 |
| #2 " humanitarian corridor to allow Georgian troops and civilians to leave safely" Ethnic cleansing at its best - on the end of a Russian backed and supplied bayonet. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2008-08-11 20:50 |
| #1 Hmmm...Vlad and Dmi don't trust NATO? Could it be that the defenders of Western Civilization engineered sovereignty for the narco-entity of Kosovo, while Arabs are moving to cleanse Jews and Christians from the Middle East? Didn't Clinton sign a document recognizing Serbian sovereignty over a demilitarized Kosovo? Didn't said document cause Serbs to remove their entire tank force out of that province? (Nevermind that Wesley Clark wanted to attack Russian troops who facilitated the withdrawl." If a person who is blind and deaf is asked to describe and elephant, and only examines the creature's tail they he could claim an elephant is rope-like. Jimmy Carter myopia lives. Whatever happened to impartiality and objectivity? |
| Posted by: McZoid 2008-08-11 20:47 |