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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia | ||
| US military surprised by speed, timing of Russia military action | ||
| 2008-08-11 | ||
| The US military was surprised by the timing and swiftness of the Russian military's move into South Ossetia and is still trying to sort out what happened, a US defense official said Monday. Russian forces surged into the breakaway region last week after weeks of clashes, threats and warnings between Tblisi and Moscow which culminated August 6 in a two-day Georgian offensive into South Ossetia. That the two countries were on a collision course was no surprise to anyone, but the devastating Russian response was not expected, officials said. "We were tracking it earlier in that week and we knew that things were escalating," said a military official, who asked not to be identified. "I can tell you it moved quicker than we anticipated that first day." But how it unfolded is still unclear, clouded by conflicting claims from both sides. "I think a lot of what you're asking needs to be ironed out," said the official. "Some of these little issues are definitely still big questions in this event -- What was the intent? Who started it? Why did they start it? And why weren't they prepared to defend what they started?" President George W. Bush, who urged Moscow to cease fire and return to pre-August 6 positions, charged in a televised statement that Russia's intention appeared to be depose Georgia's democratically elected president. But the extent of the Russian operation remained unclear to US officials on Monday. Georgian officials said Russian troops had moved out of South Ossetia into Georgia proper, occupying the city of Gori while Georgian troops were retreating to the capital. But US defense officials said they were unable to corroborate the Georgian claims. "We don't see anything that supports they are in Gori," said a defense official. "I don't know why the Georgians are saying that." "That assessment is ongoing," said Bryan Whitman, a Pentagon spokesman. The United States has among the most powerful tools for monitoring brewing conflicts, from spy satellites to reconnaissance aircraft and drones capable of scooping up radio signals or capture real-time images of forces on the ground. But the extent to which they were trained on this remote conflict before it turned violent is not known. The Russians, however, warned on August 3 of a growing threat of "large scale military conflict" between Georgia and South Ossetia. The State Department issued a mild statement on August 5 urging Moscow to refrain from provocative actions, but gave no hint that it was aware that military action either by Georgia or Russia was in the offing. Officials have suggested the fighting was not seen as an immediate threat, in part because there were only about 95 US troops and 35 civilian contractors in the country training Georgian troops for Iraq. And they were not near South Ossetia. Some 1,650 US troops conducted a joint exercise with the Georgian military in mid-July. But they were out of the country when the hostilities flared. At around the same time, the Russian military deployed 8,000 troops to the North Caucases for counter-terrorism exercises that Moscow said were unrelated to the tensions with its southern neighbor.
But the official said there was no obvious buildup of Russian forces along the border that signaled an intention to invade. "Once it did happen they were able to get the forces quickly and it was just a matter of taking the roads in. So it's not as though they were building up forces on the border, waiting," the official said. "What are their future intentions, I don't know. Obviously they could throw more troops at this if they wanted to," he said.
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| Posted by:john frum |
| #23 Just saw a state dept type on Fox late news talking about this. He was p-ssed off. They now seem to understand that the russians had planned this for some time. Russian troops were in both provinces under the guise of humanitarian work... fixing a railroad ... so it could be used for troops and ammo etc. Hopefully we will hear more about this. |
| Posted by: Legolas 2008-08-11 23:46 |
| #22 Here's part of the reason why the Georgians may have been surprised. This alone should have sent alarm bells ringing. Since when do 'peacekeepers' shoot down UAVs? April Shoot Down of Georgian UAV by Russian MIG |
| Posted by: DanNY 2008-08-11 23:20 |
| #21 Русский люди Быть вежливость! Мы не здес браги! I sure hope all that's spelled correctly |
| Posted by: badanov 2008-08-11 22:33 |
| #20 I can't argue with that, OldSpook. I'm sure as least part of the intelligence community is reorienting as fast as they can. You can't possibly be the only one to see things, I'm quite certain; you know the caliber of those you supported these last years. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2008-08-11 22:28 |
| #19 TW, the GOP isnt off the hook for this either - they chose to pork up in 2002 onward until the Dems took things back in 2006. Its the whole DC "earmark/pork" environment that cost us that. Chuck, you are correct on this being a very good moustrap set up by the Russians. Question is how do we reply in an effective manner? Next question is how do we reorient the IC to include Russia as a serious threat? |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2008-08-11 22:10 |
| #18 OS, first of all, don't believe we "lost" that sat. Sounds good, though. This was a Russian op from the start. The Georgians acted when their troops were at their peak. They had no other choice but to be picked to death by bombings and arty. All the Russian troops were in place and prepped. How else could any of the Black Sea fleet moved that rapidly? |
| Posted by: Chuck Simmins 2008-08-11 21:38 |
| #17 Congress owns the fact that the Department of Defense didn't have the funds to do what was necessary. House Majority Leader Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Reid were too busy posturing, forcing the DoD to spend their limited funds just to maintain the current war. Hopefully either they or the voters will see the light, now. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2008-08-11 21:35 |
| #16 I;ve been there - its a simple matter of taking our eye off the ball. There are likely a tonless resources available for the missions and analysis needed to cover Russia's agession, and to engage our current problems in China and the GWOT. The loss of the "spy satellite"last year has undoubtably hurt our intelligence gathering capacity. But more than anything, what got the "dropped ball" here was that nobody coudl think that the Russians would go so nakedly agressive on such a scale. Its the mindset that got us. The old cold-war hands would have likely picked up on this quickly, but those types arent around, and the few resoureces we ahve in that area are probably spread very thin, focusing on Russian-Iranian ties. Probably time we spent the money and rebuilt from the dropoff we had in the 90's and the decline in INT capabilites over the past three years due to buying bullets instead of intelligence gear (thanks to too small a defense budget). Sad for the Georgians they are paying the price for us trying to fight a war without going into an economic war footing. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2008-08-11 21:09 |
| #15 When do we bomb to rubble the Cuban bases that the Soviets plan to use for refueling? |
| Posted by: hammerhead 2008-08-11 21:08 |
| #14 When do we bomb to rubble the Cuban bases that the Soviets plan to use for refueling? |
| Posted by: hammerhead 2008-08-11 21:07 |
| #13 D *** NG IT, PART II > Democratic-Capitalist, Liberatrian Pluralist Free America = Amerika, the USA = USSA/USR [Oil Storm] = OWG Global SSR, and OUR SACRED NATIONAL COMMUNISM-SOCIALISM MAINSTREAM. from MAIN STREET, ANYTOWN, ANYPLACE/STATE, USA = USSA/USR??? * "BEVERLY HILLS, USSA, 90210". |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2008-08-11 21:04 |
| #12 Lest we fergit [old] > PRE- AND POST 9-11 > D *** NG IT, WE DEMAND TO BE ATTACKED AND INVADED BY AMERICA = AMERIKA! |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2008-08-11 20:57 |
| #11 Russia overtly fears the US-NATO [unified Europe/EU], but covertly fears "living space"- and superpower- ambitious CHINA more - NUKULAR AMBITIOUS RADICAL ISLAM [States + Enclaves + Militants-Terr Gruppen] CAN LIKELY NOW BE ADDED NEXT TO THEIR ABOVESAME COVERT FEAR OF CHINA. *Eg. the MUSLIM-ISLAMIST WAR IN CHECHNYA has NOT ceased despite well-publicized MSM-Net Nes Reports of Russ achievement and success - IN FACT, LOCAL MILITANTS ARE NOT ONLY REORG + PROCURING NEW, MORE ADVANCED WEAPONS FOR BATTLE AGZ RUSSIA, BUT ARE ALSO GOING "INTERNATIONAL" AND BRINGING IN LARGE NUMBERS OF NON-LOCAL/RUSS WARFIGHTERS. * DRUDGE > IRNA - IRAN, UZBEKISTAN SIGN MOU ON STANDARDIZATION. SCENARIO > Is it possible that, given the historical Russ + Soviet-Commie penchant for dialectic planning, that RUSSIA MAY BE ANTICIPATING LT NATIONAL FAILURE?+ COLLAPSE? AGAINST CHINA ANDOR RADICAL ISLAMISM, AND IS "HEDGING" FOR THE FUTURE DAY WHEN IT MAY NEED TO SEEK FORMAL MILPOL ALLIANCE WID NATO, PERHAPS EVEN TO JOIN/INTEGRATE WID EUROPE PROPER, AS DEFENSE AGZ THE ABOVESAME FEARED STRATEGIC CHIN ANDOR ISLAMIST THREATS??? |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2008-08-11 20:53 |
| #10 HISD hope you are right! |
| Posted by: Legolas 2008-08-11 20:37 |
| #9 OTOH - if it would work here, it would be wedge into Darfur and elsewhere. Doubt it will work, since it would require combined spine of US and UN, a rare if not extinct combination. |
| Posted by: Halliburton - Idiot Suppression Division 2008-08-11 20:31 |
| #8 They'll deny transit or air rights. If we can do that, the Georgians will be free to commence guerrilla actions, and Soviets like Putin won't allow that. |
| Posted by: Halliburton - Idiot Suppression Division 2008-08-11 20:29 |
| #7 I doubt there will be any Russian move to accept "relief" or "humanitarian" intervention... Who says we would ask their permission? Put them in on a US humanitarian mission, maybe with some sort of NATO support for legitimacy. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2008-08-11 20:26 |
| #6 Legolas - correct, but don't underestimate the combined power of surprise and unscrupulousness. In any event, there doesn't seem to be much depth of defensive room, but I wonder if the Georgians don't have additional acts in store. At this point, I'm reading W's comments as a shot across the bow to Russia that minimal direct aid may be available, but so far we'll throttle Georgia's unleashing asymmetric warfare, which the USSR may be well when dishing out, but is very ill-prepared to receive, particularly any of the profit-making centers. |
| Posted by: Halliburton - Idiot Suppression Division 2008-08-11 20:24 |
| #5 All too true Darth, but a few other observations. If the Russians' do NOT complete the job asap, there are a world of opportunities for any number of interested parties to reply. I doubt there will be any Russian move to accept "relief" or "humanitarian" intervention, and considering how fast they've gotten already, shouldn't they be equally liable for that work as well (a goose/gander thing admittedly, but it's the "western standard"). Also, when can we exchange ambassadors with Abkhazia and South Ossetia - that's what this is about, right? Also, also, why does North Ossetia need to exist - if South Ossetia can be independent, why not the North? (Did someone mention Chechnya?) Finally, what exactly does a UN resolution mean? Did we get one of those thingies for Iraq? Why? Let's ask the Ethiopians and Italians for a quick review, shall we? Russia should learn a lot from this, some of which they may not like. |
| Posted by: Halliburton - Idiot Suppression Division 2008-08-11 20:19 |
| #4 We had trainers/advisors (whatever the hell you want to call them) in country and have the most sophisticated spying equipment on the planet, I am not buying we had no idea what was up. |
| Posted by: Legolas 2008-08-11 20:12 |
| #3 This was a classic, bait and conquer operation. Russia used "insurgents", most likely with KGB, attacked Georgia until that country responded. Russia, with pre-positioned units, launched an rescue and intervention for their "peacekeeping" units. Once that was accomplished, a continuing hostile Georgia is invaded with the goal of "regime change". The whole thing is brilliant and worthy of Machiavelli and Georgia took the bait hook, line and sinker. Now they were the "aggressors" and Russia will only be chastised for not stopping at the Georgian border. The US will not save its ally and definitely will not go to war with Russia over them. The only thing we could do is put, "observers" or "peacekeepers" to distribute humanitarian goods (see at least a Striker Brigade) and some Patriot batteries at well advertised strategic points with the warning to Russia that they can overfly, buzz and look at our troops all they want, but one bomb falls from a Russian bomber and we will clear the Georgian skies of Russian planes. Other than that, Georgia is lost. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2008-08-11 20:07 |
| #2 If you couldn't connect the dots on this, you need to be cleaning vegetables in the mess. |
| Posted by: Legolas 2008-08-11 19:53 |
| #1 Surprised my ass - somebody dropped the ball over and over- a low level S-2 should have seen this coming. That is total BS and ass covering. I guess they don't have the interenet in that guys office. |
| Posted by: Legolas 2008-08-11 19:53 |