... Salafi-takfiri jihadists cannot build political alliances; they regard even Hamas and Hizbullah, Israel's main foes, as corrupted by politics. And once they start to spill blood, they become ever more indiscriminate: first they attack the "apostate" rulers or their foreign backers, then the ministers, then the security forces, then the civil servants, then anybody who objects to the violence, and so on. Those who recoil at the carnage, or object to the religious strictures imposed at gunpoint, are treated as apostates. At some point, though, local populations turn against their supposed champions. This cycle of escalation and rejection was demonstrated in Algeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and, most recently, Iraq. Peter Bergen, the author of several books on Osama bin Laden, suggests that al-Qaeda, in turn, is starting to unravel. "Self-destruction is encoded in the DNA of groups like al-Qaeda," he says.
A Pew Global Attitudes survey last year found that support for Mr bin Laden and suicide-bombings had dropped across a number of Muslim countries. More importantly, even radical ideologues have become critical. Salman al-Oadah, a Saudi sheikh once jailed by the Saudi authorities and admired by Mr bin Laden, last year made a televised appeal for the al-Qaeda leader to change his violent ways.
Another blow was delivered from an Egyptian jail by Sayyid Imam al-Sharif, better known as Dr Fadl, one of al-Qaeda's founders in 1988 and a former leader of Mr Zawahiri's movement, al-Jihad. He had developed much of al-Qaeda's ideology, but at the end of last year he came up with a sweeping revision. "There is nothing that invokes the anger of God and His wrath like the unwarranted spilling of blood and wrecking of property," he wrote.
Jihad had to be authorised by a qualified imam or sheikh, he said, not the "heroes of the internet". He approved of jihad in Afghanistan and had mixed feelings about Iraq. But the September 11th attacks, he thought, were "a catastrophe for Muslims...What good is it if you destroy one of your enemy's buildings and he destroys one of your countries?"
Perhaps in response to such criticism, al-Qaeda's propaganda has gone into overdrive. Mr Zawahiri wrote a rebuttal of nearly 200 pages accusing Dr Fadl of seeking American-style "Islam without jihad". The reclusive Mr bin Laden has become more active, delivering four audio speeches this year, mostly on the crowd-pleasing theme of Palestine.
Al-Qaeda may have thought that, by goading America into invading Muslim lands, it would engineer a popular jihad against the "far" enemy. In part it succeeded. But it also discovered that fighting in Muslim lands means having to deal with a growing number of "near" enemies, be they fragile new governments, rival religious sects or tribes that have become fed up with the extremists.
Do al-Qaeda's setbacks answer Donald Rumsfeld's question about whether America is winning or losing the "war on terror"? Not really. The best that can be said is that America has stopped losing but is not yet winning it.