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| Success in Iraq stymies Obama's biggest fan |
| 2008-06-02 |
| Jennifer Rubin, Commentary magazine Barack Obama's greatest fan, commenting on the Washington Post op-ed that the "all is lost crowd" should rethink their Iraq plans, has this observation: The trap Obama must not be caught in is one of excessive pessimism. Conditions now favor expeditious withdrawal more than they did only a few months ago. But the manner of withdrawal, its pace, and its concomitant diplomacy now require a different cast, and may require an even different one next February and March. None of this means that this war was not a mistake; it does suggest it need not in the medium term be a catastrophe. Petraeus deserves the lion's share of the credit; luck and time and the self-defeating nihilism of the Jihadists have helped. But Bush and McCain equally merit points for pursuing the surge, even though the metrics pointed to failure. Obama needs to capitalize on these gains, not dismiss them. Well, let's unpack all of that. Conditions favor an expeditious withdrawal because . . . why, exactly? We had to withdraw, we were told, because all was lost, it was immoral to sacrifice any more brave Americans for a lost cause, there had been no political progress and nothing further could be gained. But in the face of recent progress, when a chance for success and a good outcome has emerged (acknowledged among the more honest mainstream media observers), we should still leave, and in fact it is more necessary that we should do so? But that is small potatoes next to the real problem: Obama doesn't think progress is being made, refuses to acknowledge reality and opposed the surge -- which even Obama's greatest defender can admit was the correct course and likely saved us from a "catastrophe." That obvious dilemma will not be lost, I am fairly certain, on those not predisposed to explain, justify, and protect Obama from unpleasant realities. And if Obama fails to "capitalize" -- "to take advantage of circumstances his opponent helped create and he opposed" -- is he guilty of only excessive pessimism? Or has he proven himself to be inflexible, unmoved by new facts, unwilling to admit error and divorced from reality? Hmmm, seems like someone said similar things about George W. Bush. |
| Posted by:Mike |
| #7 Hillary must know that OBAMA will be hard-pressed to "justify/validate" any so-called "DIVERSITY", "PEACE", or "WITHDRAWAL" agenda, etc. in the face of BOTH ISLAMIST IRAN + MILITANTS GOING NUCLEAR AMAP ASAP 2008-2012. POLLS + PUNDITS > Hillary also knows that she is viewed as matching or defeating Mccain. Iff Obama still desires to adhere to his propsed agenda, HILLARY likely is thinking he will need her as VPOTUS AND BEYOND, NOT MERELY AS CONDI-STYLE SECSTATE, iff only to put up a false facade of "PRO-PEACE" "DIVERSITY" while leaving POTUS Barack in the clear to PDeniably deal militarily forcefully wid NUCLEAR IRAN-ISLAMISM iff need be. AFTER 2010 > IRAN + MILITANTS-TERROR WILL GO FULL OR INCREASINGLY NUCLEAR AMAP ASAP, + SPREAD ALL OVER CENTRAL ASIA + PERIPHERALS, and exclusive of anything else. THE PAN-ASIAN GEOPOL MILPOL ORDER = "STATUS QUO" WILL BE SERIOUSLY AFFECTED IFF NOT ALTERED. Something will be seriously wrong within Radical Islam iff they CAN'T DEFEAT THE USA-ALLIES IN THE ME EVEN WID A US-SPECIFIC REDUCED MILFOR PRESENCE + ISLAMISM POSSESSING POTENT NUKES-WMDS, etc. ABOVE > DARE ANY ISLAMIST HIDDEN IMAM-MAHDI MAKE HIS APPEARANCE MOSTLY TO SAVE ISLAM FROM ITSELF!? |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2008-06-02 22:48 |
| #6 SW - maybe hes not THAT stuck. 1. His most solid base is not white progressives, its blacks. Who can swallow a flip flop on the war 2. SOME white progressives (mainly ex Edwards supporters) are more focused on the economy. 3. For the die hard antiwar progs, the parlor pinks who are less concerned about the economy, McCain acts for the Dems like Hillary does for Repubs. Maybe (then im not 100% convinced on that line wrt Hillary either, but now its too late) 4. Geography man. We still vote by the electoral college. Obama is NOT losing Calif, or NY, or most of New England whatever flip flops he makes. What swing states will a flip flop hurt him in - - well, Iowa, Minn, Colorado, probably. But might help in Ohio, Fla, even Virginia. Hmmmm |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2008-06-02 18:04 |
| #5 Success in Iraq hurts McCain most. It makes the issue history so that the election will hinge on inflation and housing prices. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2008-06-02 15:23 |
| #4 Wheels within wheels, LH :-) Obama is totally screwed if he tries to flip on the war, even if he casts it as responding to new information and the improving situation, which WaPo would like him to do. His strongest base are the progressive Lefties who would never, ever forgive him for flipping. The analogy is the conservtive base that abandoned GHWB after he broke his 'Read My Lips' promise. So I think Obama is stuck. Heh. |
| Posted by: Steve White 2008-06-02 15:06 |
| #3 The other ironic thing of course, is that Pres Bush's sticking to the old Rumsfeld approach and resisting McCains recommendations on Iraq as long as he did, sunk Hillary. If the surge had been done 6 months earlier, and we had been that further along earlier, Hillary would have had far more momentum going into Iowa, and Edwards and Obama less. She would at least have made Iowa close, and with a big win in NH, would have made it close in SC, and sailed into super Tuesday with big momentum. In all probability it would have been over there, or Obama might have struggled on till Pennsylvania. But shed be the nominee. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2008-06-02 15:02 |
| #2 obamas problem is Hillary in this regard. If the nomination were a wrap, he could flip flop NOW, and acknowledge the serve, try to seperate praise for Petraeus from attacks on McCain/Bush, praise the Iraqi army, and forecast gradual withdrawl and victory. But the nomination ISNT wrapped, and so he CANT do the flip flop yet. Expect a change of heart in September though. McCain, ironically is handicapped also by the continued Dem race. Until theres an actual dem nominee to focus on, his base remains less than perfectly steady (though it looks a lot more solid than a couple of months ago) So HE cant flip flop on taxes and the economy - yet. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2008-06-02 14:58 |
| #1 Andrew will be getting some 'anti' mail now from the more hard core leftists. No sympathy here however. |
| Posted by: mhw 2008-06-02 11:24 |