The Taliban have been tactically routed in southern Afghanistan, with enemy forces 'licking their wounds' after a series of emphatic defeats, say senior British military commanders. In one of the most bullish assessments yet of the conflict in Helmand province, Brigadier Gordon Messenger said the Taliban's command structure had been 'fractured' and its fighters forced on to the backfoot.
As British forces continue to consolidate positions throughout the Helmand valley, Messenger said latest intelligence indicated that the ferocious fighting that had defined Helmand for the past two summers was unlikely to be repeated. 'It's become apparent that the Taliban are very much on the backfoot. Their leadership both south of the border [Pakistan] and also their local leadership has been severely dislocated and fractured.
'We are not complacent and suggesting that they do not have the capacity to regenerate, but they are very much off the frontfoot and licking their wounds.'
With the British military having sustained 97 casualties since operations began in Afghanistan in 2001, commanders are hopeful that a less costly campaign lies ahead. Estimates suggest that as many as 7,000 Taliban have been killed during the past two years. In addition, Messenger said that evidence of al-Qaeda or affiliated organised groups was scant in areas where British troops were operating.
Latest intelligence updates indicate that Taliban forces have retrenched in Farah, bordering northwest Helmand, the province where about 8,000 British troops are stationed.
Government officials revealed last week that they are monitoring the Iranian frontier - Farah is on the border - for evidence of weapons smuggling. Concern is mounting among Foreign Office officials that Iran might still be smuggling in components for roadside mines known as EFPs, which fire a fist-sized disc of armour-piercing molten copper that explodes inside military vehicles.
To try to disrupt the cross-border traffic, the focus is intensifying on Taliban elements near the Pakistan border, south of Garmsir. Recently a new expeditionary force of 3,500 US marines entered the region to target remote southern districts. The move was interpreted as placing British forces under pressure to adopt the American counter-insurgency tactics. However, Messenger said the tactic was proving fruitful and would help UK troops further north.
'They are disrupting areas where the Taliban have traditionally held sway', said Messenger, who led 40 Commando Royal Marines during the Iraq war and was recently appointed as an aide-de-camp to the Queen. He said that the 'ink spot' stratgey of securing major towns along the Helmand valley and then spreading stability appeared to be paying dividends.
One enduring area of concern is Helmand's massive heroin trade which links the Taliban with organised crime.
With the Taliban and their followers in effect beaten in conventional warfare, their increasing reliance on suicide attacks was underlined yesterday when a suicide car bomb reportedly killed one Nato soldier and injured six other people in eastern Afghanistan. A local governor said that a car rammed a military convoy in Jalalabad before the attacker detonated the explosives.