Islamabad's deal with militias in tribal belt seen as threat to troops in Afghanistan
ISLAMABAD — Afghan and NATO fears over Pakistan's peace initiative with militants in its tribal border region appeared justified yesterday when Afghan authorities said the area was used to plan Sunday's assassination attempt on President Hamid Karzai.Pakistan's tribal belt, which runs along the border with Afghanistan and is known as the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, was also pinpointed yesterday in a U.S. State Department report, which said the area was used by al-Qaeda to rebuild after a previous ceasefire there.
There is increasing concern among NATO and Afghan forces that the new deal that emerged last week in the FATA would endanger troops fighting Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan, as Pakistan's army would withdraw, allowing the region to be used to stage cross-border attacks.
"To make peace with one part [of the Taliban] and not the other part is a worry for the entire world," Mohammad Anwar Anwarzai, Afghanistan's ambassador to Pakistan, said in an interview. "It is giving them [Pakistani militants] carte blanche to do whatever you want, but not here [in Pakistan]."
Afghanistan's intelligence chief, Amrullah Saleh, said yesterday that the plot to kill Mr. Karzai was launched in the FATA. But he added there was no evidence that Pakistan's government or its intelligence agencies were involved.
"We have no evidence whether ... the operation has had any mercy or go-ahead from the government of Pakistan and [its] special agencies," Mr. Saleh told reporters in Kabul. "There [is] very, very strong evidence suggesting that Pakistan's soil once again has been used to inflict pain on our nation."
The militants involved in the weekend plot were in phone contact with people in Pakistan's Bajaur and North Waziristan, both areas of the FATA, and the main northwestern city of Peshawar, he said.
Investigators took action closer to the attack site yesterday, raiding a Kabul hideout where militants with suspected links to the Karzai attack were holed up, a top official said. Seven people died in the predawn raid, including a child.
Two militants, a woman and a child were among those killed, Mr. Saleh said. Three intelligence agents also died. One of the dead militants had supplied weapons used in the attack on Mr. Karzai, he said, adding that the raid was part of a wider operation in which six other militant suspects were detained in two other locations in the capital.
Even before the assassination attempt, the effect of the FATA talks was already being felt in Afghanistan. Attacks originating from Pakistani territory doubled in March and April, according to a Western diplomat in Islamabad who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the subject. An unofficial ceasefire has been in place in South Waziristan since February.
NATO commanders in Afghanistan and the Afghan government fear that the renewed attacks may be only the initial fallout from the new peace initiative. An even bigger fear looms this time: After the Pakistani army pulls out, militants might use the tribal areas to plot terrorist attacks against the United States and Europe.
"You're giving time and space to people to rebuild, regroup in the border area," the Western diplomat said. "You could see terrorists trained there for attacks in London or wherever."
Under the terms of the proposed pact, the Pakistani army would gradually reduce its presence in South Waziristan. In return, tribal leaders would pledge to halt acts of terrorism in Pakistan and stop attacking government personnel and installations in the area.
Western and Afghan officials dread a repeat of two previous peace deals, in 2005 in South Waziristan and in 2006 in North Waziristan. Washington and Kabul believe that the withdrawal of the Pakistani army after those accords allowed Afghan and Pakistani Taliban to use Waziristan to launch attacks against NATO forces in Afghanistan, and also gave al-Qaeda a sanctuary in which to regroup. The latest agreement appears to put no obligation on the tribes to prevent their areas being used to attack Afghanistan.
The new South Waziristan deal would be one of a patchwork of similar agreements hammered out with tribal chiefs in the FATA agencies. Pakistani officials have said that the difference between the proposed new accords in Waziristan and the previous deals is that, this time, they're done with the tribal chiefs, not the militants.
Mr. Mehsud, however, has acted as if he's a central part of that process, responding to the talks first by ordering his men last week to cease attacks on security forces and then by saying on Monday that he was pulling out of the talks - which was most likely an attempt to win better terms.