| Submit your comments on this article |
| Science & Technology |
| How long will oil last? (Popular Mechanics article) |
| 2008-04-11 |
| Posted under Non-WoT, but could very well be placed under WoT-Politix! Saw the magazine last night at store, so figured I'd share the "knowledge wealth" EXPANDING SUPPLY These days everyone is worried about oil. The primitive black goo has been linked to climate change, economic disruption and other problems, but make no mistake: We still need oil, and lots of it. Not only is American demand rising—this year it’s expected to top 21 million barrels per day—but ascendant economies in India and China have developed huge appetites for the stuff. The stark reality is that the supply is finite. "Peak oil" theorists argue that production is already maxed out, meaning imminent shortages and sharper price spikes; more optimistic experts believe that day is 20 to 30 years away. Both camps agree that the task ahead is twofold: Develop new supplies while learning to stretch existing reserves. The Relentless Search There has not been a major find on U.S. soil since Prudhoe Bay in 1968, which means most major exploration has moved to the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, where drilling and production are difficult and expensive. Last year, a Chevron-led consortium announced the discovery of the Jack field, 270 miles off Louisiana. It may hold 15 billion barrels, which would more than double domestic reserves. Boy, howdy, that'd be a welcome relief. "The technology that is being brought to bear is phenomenal," says energy writer Robert Bryce, author of Gusher of Lies. "What we are seeing today in offshore drilling is the terrestrial version of the space program." Bryce is among those pushing to open offshore leases along the East and West coasts currently under federal moratorium but estimated to hold as much as 19 billion barrels of oil and 86 trillion cu. ft. of natural gas. So, let me get this straight. We just found a Gulf reserve that could double our domestic reserves and there's another 50+% (on top of those 2 reserves) there in offshore "banned" areas (tripling our domestic reserves, without even tapping the oil shale out west)? Tapping vast unconventional sources that don’t flow to the surface is also hugely challenging. The oil sands of Alberta, Canada, contain 175 billion barrels of proven reserves—the largest in the world outside Saudi Arabia—but the oil costs as much as $15 per barrel to produce, compared to $2 for Saudi crude. Likewise, shale deposits in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming hold promise, but no one has yet figured out how to extract them at a profit. Royal Dutch Shell has placed a $200 million bet that it can unlock Colorado’s Green River Formation, which could produce 4 million barrels per day—20 percent of current U.S. consumption. That doesn't even include the "light crude" in the recently announced oil-shale formation in the Dakotas??? Pretty cool how $100+/barrel can "spur" new finds, eh? More at link, including info on efficiencies of "Enhanced Recovery" wells, etc. |
| Posted by:BA |
| #5 s there any candidate anywhere in the country proposing a $25/bbl tariff on the non-continental imported stuff? If we're gonna have a recession, let's at least use the chance to let the you know who's from you know where start paying our taxes. Replace the ethanol tariff with a crude tariff, and move production back to this hemisphere. What makes you think that transferring even more massive amounts of money from the private sector to the government is going to help anyone but the government? Ethanol and "alternative fuels" are a scan perpetuated by the government for thirty years. These "technologies" weren't ready then, they aren't ready now nor will they ever be ready. Wanna know how I know? Government is subsidizing these scams, the only way they have survived over the last thirty years. Tariffs and tax increases in all their forms only helps government; No sector of any economy benefits but government; they will never solve a problem but they will always help to create newer and bigger problems. |
| Posted by: badanov 2008-04-11 22:31 |
| #4 Is there any candidate anywhere in the country proposing a $25/bbl tariff on the non-continental imported stuff? If we're gonna have a recession, let's at least use the chance to let the you know who's from you know where start paying our taxes. Replace the ethanol tariff with a crude tariff, and move production back to this hemisphere. Finally, set up a tollbooth (for clarity I suppose we could call it a blockade line) at the exit of the Persian Gulf, and start collecting tolls - maybe simply offset the amount from the purchase prices. |
| Posted by: Harcourt Jush7795 2008-04-11 19:12 |
| #3 from my reading the independents are drilling in the Bakken, not Shell, not Chevron, not the majors |
| Posted by: mhw 2008-04-11 18:33 |
| #2 Perhaps not drilling our own oil with all these refuges and protected areas is a long term ploy to make the world use up all their oil first... Sadly, our government is nowhere near that smart. But one can dream... |
| Posted by: Laurence of the Rats 2008-04-11 14:34 |
| #1 The 'Dakota Find' has been known since the early '80's and Shell want to drill now. Problem is they cannot not get necessary Federal Permits even though they have been trying since 1987! The Canadian oil we currently import (48% of our imports)comes from the same formation, just further north. Don't want to hurt the Saudi's or Canadians do we... |
| Posted by: Herman Phusotle4913 2008-04-11 13:51 |