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Iraq
Iraq PM is a wuss reverses course, freezes raids
2008-04-05
The world as I see it from my armchair! :-)

In a dramatic reversal, Iraq's prime minister ordered a nationwide freeze Friday on Iraqi raids against Shiite militants, bowing to demands by anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr only one day after promising to expand the crackdown to Baghdad.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki issued the order after al-Sadr, whose Mahdi Army militia fought government troops last week in Basra and elsewhere, hinted at retaliation if Iraqi security forces continue to arrest his followers.

A statement by al-Maliki's office, broadcast on government television, did not mention the Mahdi Army by name or give a timeframe for the freeze. It said the move was designed to give a "chance to those who repented and want to lay down their arms."

But the statement was issued less than 24 hours after al-Maliki told reporters he intended to launch security operations against Mahdi Army strongholds in Baghdad, including Sadr City, home to some 2.5 million Shiites and the militia's largest base.

"It is not possible to look for only a military solution. There must be a political solution and that's why the prime minister issued today's statement," a top al-Maliki adviser, Sadiq al-Rikabi, told The Associated Press.

"We must have calm. Many politicians advised al-Maliki against confrontation, warning him that clashes benefited other parties," al-Rikabi said without elaborating.

In his Friday statement, al-Maliki said that extremists "who lay down their arms and participated in the recent acts of violence" would not be prosecuted.

American military officials did not respond to requests for comment.

U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker had praised al-Maliki for his decision to strike at Shiite militias last week in Basra, even as he acknowledged that the operation ran into "a boatload of problems."

The clashes quickly spread throughout the Shiite south and to Baghdad, where Shiite militiamen pounded the U.S.-controlled Green Zone with rockets and mortar fire, killing at least two Americans.

Major fighting eased Sunday after al-Sadr ordered his men off the street under a deal brokered in Iran — a move which appeared to undermine al-Maliki, who had taken personal command of the Basra operation.

In Amman, Jordan, David Shearer, the U.N. humanitarian coordinator for Iraq, said an estimated 700 people were killed and more than 1,500 were wounded in fighting that erupted after the Basra crackdown. He said the figures could rise "as facts and the numbers become more clear."

U.S. and Iraqi authorities had insisted the Basra operation was not aimed at al-Sadr's powerful political movement but instead at ridding the streets of criminals and gunmen who had effectively ruled the city since 2005.

But al-Sadr's supporters believed the crackdown was aimed at weakening their movement before provincial elections this fall. Al-Sadr expects to score major electoral gains against Shiite parties that work with the Americans.

A member of al-Sadr's 30-member bloc in parliament, Hassan al-Rubaie, told the AP that the decision to freeze arrests was made during talks Thursday between Sadrist representatives and al-Maliki aides.

Al-Rubaie said the freeze applied even in cases where an arrest warrant had been issued. He said negotiations were under way on other Sadrist demands, including the release of al-Sadr's followers detained without charge, reinstating soldiers and police who deserted during last week's fighting and the lifting of the siege of Sadr City and another Shiite neighborhood.

In his latest statement, al-Maliki also said families forced to flee their homes because of the latest fighting should be allowed to return home and that cash donations would be offered to the families of those killed or wounded in the violence.

He said Iraqis whose property has been damaged in the fighting also would be compensated.

In Basra, military and police officials said about 900 Iraqi soldiers and police deserted or refused to fight the militias after the offensive was launched March 25.

The officials said the mutiny involved an army battalion from the 4th Iraqi Division numbering about 500 men as well as about 400 policemen.

Deserters said they did not want to fight fellow Shiites and turned over weapons and vehicles to the Mahdi Army, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

Iraqi officials have acknowledged desertions but described the numbers as insignificant.

However, the desertions cast new doubt on the effectiveness of U.S.-trained Iraqi security forces. The White House has conditioned further U.S. troop withdrawals on the readiness of the Iraqi military and police.

Despite a drop in fighting, Iraqi officials have insisted that the Basra crackdown will continue until it breaks the stronghold by armed groups.

It was unclear, however, whether the freeze order might affect the plan.

In a statement Friday, the U.S. military said Iraqi special forces had captured a suspected militant leader who has been rallying insurgents in Basra to fight against coalition forces.

The statement said the suspect was linked the kidnapping and murder of Iraqi security troopers and had been involved in oil smuggling "and foreign fighter networks."

Maj. Tom Holloway, a British military spokesman, said a roadside bomb targeted a British force "supporting an Iraqi-led operation at the very fringes of Basra." He said the British were "mentoring and monitoring" the Iraqi operation, but provided no further details.

Also Friday, a suicide bomber killed at least 15 people and wounded eight when he blew himself up during a policeman's funeral in Sadiyah, a town 60 miles north of Baghdad on Friday. Police said the bomber mingled among the mourners and then triggered an explosive vest.

And a roadside bombing killed four policemen and wounded one in Hillah, a mostly Shiite city about 60 miles south of Baghdad, a police spokesman said.

Posted by:gorb

#23  LOL - granted
Posted by: Frank G   2008-04-05 21:48  

#22  never type and drink frank, it's just a bad idea
Posted by: sinse   2008-04-05 20:47  

#21  Maybe it's just a hudna.

Now wouldn't that be ironic, clever, and rather Rovian.
Posted by: Gabby Cussworth   2008-04-05 19:22  

#20  Nappy time, now all you little boys lay down on your prayer mats, and as soon as recess is over we'll continue with the murders.

Right now nappy time, heads down, no talking.
Posted by: Redneck Jim   2008-04-05 18:56  

#19  "chance to those who repented and want to lay down their arms."

IOW, we're just armin' up!
Posted by: BA   2008-04-05 17:13  

#18  aol qaeda? LOL. Nice catch, Frank.
Posted by: Pancho Elmeck8414   2008-04-05 16:56  

#17  aol qaeda? Marriage of corrupt evil terrorist organizations, huh?
Posted by: Frank G   2008-04-05 16:18  

#16  no that didn'y work when they saw aol queda murdering their children and others at will is what turned them, but they can all be turned ata ahat though
Posted by: sinse   2008-04-05 15:57  

#15  Maybe it's just a hudna.
Posted by: Abu Uluque   2008-04-05 14:48  

#14  The world as I see it from my armchair! :-)

Gorb, there is nothing wrong with your armchair!

~:) funny pic btw!
Posted by: RD   2008-04-05 12:53  

#13  I just did a quick look and it appears that the only major rail link out of the country is via Turkey. There is a rail line that goes from Basra all the way to Turkey and there is a branch that goes out into Anbar but doesn't appear to connect to Syrian or Jordanian rail from the map that I found. So that port in Basra is going to be very important in connecting Iraq's economy with the global economy.
Posted by: crosspatch   2008-04-05 11:43  

#12  I'm talking about their leadership and the slugs that sit in their parliament. If they would rather run their country into the crapper than improve it, then we have a serious problem on our hands. If they WANT to have Iran pull their strings and run the country there isn't much we can do to help them.

I agree with much of that and I also think Maliki would too! The operation in Basra wasn't just to run down there and beat up Sadr's goons. There was a larger context. The economy in Iraq is improving. The demand for goods is increasing and Iraqi production of goods is increasing. Basra is practically the only and certainly the largest port facility to connect Iraq with the rest of the world and get goods in and out of the country by ocean freight. The only other route is over land via Turkey and that route is "hot" right now with the Turks fighting some Kurdish communists across the border. The only other routes are Iran, Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The border with Saudi is mostly desert without a lot of transportation infrastructure and I believe there is one major road to Jordan.

So Iraq's economy NEEDS that port in Basra but it is being "run" by gangsters who are hijacking the freight and pocketing the proceeds. It is wrecking the economy. Many of these gangsters are Sadrists, but probably not ALL of them. The government is moving against these gangs and is in the process of securing the ports so that they can be rehabilitated for the good of the general economy of the country.

Sure, many of these individual gangsters might have the support of various Iranian interests, probably in both government and enterprise. But I think people would get a better idea by backing away a little so they can see the whole forest instead of concentrating on the individual trees and groves of trees. This is the Iraqi government establishing itself in Basra and taking control away from these thugs. It is a good thing. Maliki made a judgment call to send those troops in way early. It probably gave him the benefit of surprise.
Posted by: crosspatch   2008-04-05 11:27  

#11  "why do they think this letting them surrender shit is gonna work. wake up you have tried it before and it hasn't worked yet."

Actually it DID work bigtime. It turned insurgent groups into groups of "concerned citizens" by allowing them to switch sides. You have to remember that this is a domestic issue for the Iraqis. They are engaged with their own people. They are going to give them every opportunity to surrender. We do the same thing. Even when we are engaged with an armed group in this country, our usual first reaction is to give them plenty of time to surrender. It appears that the groups are fair game if they open fire on government or coalition forces, though.
Posted by: crosspatch   2008-04-05 11:14  

#10  I'm not talking about the IA crosspatch, they performed quite well in many instances, poorly in others, but overall well. I'm talking about their leadership and the slugs that sit in their parliament. If they would rather run their country into the crapper than improve it, then we have a serious problem on our hands. If they WANT to have Iran pull their strings and run the country there isn't much we can do to help them. Maliki is a duplicitous character to say the least, we need to sound him out and figure out if we are wasting our time with this "bringing democracy to the mideast" thingy.
Posted by: bigjim-ky   2008-04-05 11:11  

#9  Dang, sorry to hog so much here but there is a lot of news on this subject this morning: Apparently raids on Sadr City haven't been "frozen" either.

US Soldiers Move Into Sadr City
Posted by: crosspatch   2008-04-05 11:11  

#8  why do they think this letting them surrender shit is gonna work. wake up you have tried it before and it hasn't worked yet.
Posted by: sinse   2008-04-05 11:08  

#7  Note this from Roggio's article:

An estimated 500 Iraqi Army soldiers and 400 policemen deserted during the Basrah fighting, Iraqi military officials told The Associated Press. The 500 soldiers were reported to be from a single Iraqi Army battalion.

So that puts things in a little different light. While I am not going to believe that 100% of the deserting soldiers came from one battalion, it is reasonable to believe that the vast majority of them did and that police desertions were probably more systemic withing the police units.
Posted by: crosspatch   2008-04-05 11:05  

#6  bigjim-ky: We should also not be tempted to draw conclusions one week into a months long campaign. There is an excellent article over at Bill Roggio's site. Part of the problem is that one of the units involved (14th IAD) went into battle with a brigade (52nd brigade) that had just finished basic training in February and cracked in battle. It doesn't mean the battle is lost or over.
Posted by: crosspatch   2008-04-05 10:59  

#5  I think the "criminal" distinction is also an internal issue. It is to imply that the government isn't "after" Sadrists in general, but only the ones who attack government forces or are involved in other criminal activities. The notion being that a Sadrist who wants to chill out, take part in the political process, and cooperate with the government won't have any problems.
Posted by: crosspatch   2008-04-05 10:55  

#4  This is one of the danger signs we should be looking for. Lack of political will. Will to shake off Iran, get rid of roving militias, govern themselves. If the army sucks, that's one thing, we can work on that. But if they have no will to have a peaceful, prosperous society, that's a big problem. 5 years into this, they would still rather kill each other than build a school. And before anyone even says it, I'm not being reactionary, we've given them every chance in the world to get their shit together.
Posted by: bigjim-ky   2008-04-05 10:53  

#3  Note the increasing use of the word "criminal" for "terrorist." The Iraqi (and Afghanistani and Pakistani) governments are preparing themselves for a possible liberal administration in the US, and they want to get ahead of the "treat terrorism as a police problem" curve...
Posted by: M. Murcek   2008-04-05 10:37  

#2  An armed criminalA terrorist was confirmed killed in the precision airstrike.

Fixed that for ya', cross.
Posted by: Barbara Skolaut   2008-04-05 10:22  

#1  1. According to Maliki, it is temporary so some can surrender. Sounds to me like it is part of some sort of negotiation.

2. It isn't total:

http://www.mnf-iraq.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=18152&Itemid=128

After receiving reports that Iraqi Security Forces were under attack and taking small-arms fire from a building, Coalition forces employed an unmanned aerial vehicle to observe and confirm the target in BasraÂ’s Haiyaniya district. A rotary-winged aircraft then conducted the strike. An armed criminal was confirmed killed in the precision airstrike.
Posted by: crosspatch   2008-04-05 10:07  

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