| Submit your comments on this article |
| Africa Subsaharan |
| Emigration a threat to So. African economy. |
| 2008-02-12 |
| Chief economist at First National Bank Cees Bruggemans said on Tuesday that the apparent large-scale escalation in emigration intentions among talented professionals and managers is a major threat to the economy, especially when combined with the impact of the electricity crisis. Along with output losses due to electricity, it could severely strain the spending and output growth outlook over the next few years. Instead of 6%, think 3%, he notes. "Economic growth comes about through capital formation, labour absorption and technological progress. We are raising our investment-to-GDP-ratio to over 25% by 2010, we enjoy technological progress even when sourced overseas, but our main weakness is limited availability of skilled, educated, talented, experienced people," explains Bruggemans. He points out that instead of gearing for faster growth, as heralded by every state document, commission and speech, the country seems determined to undermine its growth potential by frightening away its most precious national resource, often by breathtaking "own goals" seemingly played from as far away as midfield (even in soccer a feat equalled by few). "People from all walks of life are daily deciding to uproot and go elsewhere. That doesn't happen without good reason. Every 30 000 highly skilled individuals who make this step probably reduce South Africa's GDP by 1% or more, starving it of critical support, thereby undermining ongoing employment of double their number," he says. "And many more than that seem of late to be jumping ship. Wild tales of record car auctions and property market flooding abound. If everybody knows somebody preparing to emigrate, the condition is presumably dire," points out Bruggemans. "Could it lead to early fiscal and monetary easing? The budget may favour the poor. A June or August rate cut by the South African Reserve Bank is feasible, provided inflation descends as rapidly as expected after the [first quarter of 2008] peaking," concludes Bruggemans. — I-Net Bridge |
| Posted by:Besoeker |
| #5 Why would any intelligent person with a family still be there? |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2008-02-12 20:04 |
| #4 The old Soviet Union [not to be confused with the New Coke] and the Eastern Block countries had a semi-workable solution for this. I doubt though in forty years there's going to be a large conglomerate of much wealthier countries on your border which lives off of American military welfare to help. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2008-02-12 19:01 |
| #3 When I was there in 2005, every white person I talked to was already involved in planning to emigrate. I don't blame them a bit; all they've got to do is look to their north to see the future. |
| Posted by: Jomosing Bluetooth8431 2008-02-12 17:42 |
| #2 Think of it as a re-forestation project... |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2008-02-12 13:17 |
| #1 Hmm. Why could this possibly be happening? I am ready to put the blame on racism, sexism, lookism, and a lack of concern for criminals - without these prosperous people as a ready source of prey, how will the underclass survive? |
| Posted by: gromky 2008-02-12 06:19 |