FIDEL CASTRO'S successor could be one of two younger officials, dubbed "good cop" and "bad cop" by US intelligence analysts.The Cuban dictator, 81, said in a letter read out on state television last week that he had a duty not to hold on to power nor to obstruct the rise of the "younger generation". It was the first time he had conceded that he might never return to power after he was taken ill with intestinal bleeding last year. Since then his brother Raul, 76, has been in charge.
US spy chiefs have begun to rethink their assumption that Cuban communism will collapse after Dr Castro's death. Instead they expect the nation's course to be decided by a power struggle between two men.
The "good cop" is Carlos Lage Davila, 56, considered the third most powerful man in Cuba. As economics tsar, the former doctor is credited with negotiating the favourable deal with Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan President, to import oil to Cuba - an arrangement that has mitigated the effects of the US economic embargo.
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An intelligence source said: "It will come down to Lage or Roque. Whoever wins will determine the speed and nature of reforms in Cuba."
Dan Erikson, a Cuba specialist at Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington think-tank, said: "These guys were Castro's top young aides. Lage is seen as being more sophisticated, mature and diplomatic. Perez Roque is younger and likely to play the role of attack dog.
"If you want someone to do a trade deal, you send Lage. If you want someone to deliver a tirade at the UN, you send Perez Roque."
The US officially remains committed to the view that Cuban communism will disintegrate when Dr Castro dies, but analysts in the CIA and the State Department are now preparing plans to deal with slower change. Central to this is an assessment that Cuba's leaders have persuaded Dr Castro that if he wants his revolution to survive his death, he needs to help the handover of power.