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| Iraq |
| Strategy Page: bin Laden admits defeat in Iraq |
| 2007-10-28 |
| October 27, 2007: On October 22nd, Osama bin Laden admitted that al Qaeda had lost its war in Iraq. In an audiotape speech titled "Message to the people of Iraq," bin Laden complains of disunity and poor use of resources. He admits that al Qaeda made mistakes, and that all Sunni Arabs must unite to defeat the foreigners and Shia Moslems. What bin Laden is most upset about is the large number of Sunni Arab terrorists who have switched sides in Iraq. This has actually been going on for a while. Tribal leaders and warlords in the west (Anbar province) have been turning on terrorist groups, especially al Qaeda, for several years. While bin Laden appeals for unity, he shows only a superficial appreciation of what is actually going on in Iraq. Bin Laden doesn't discuss how the Americans defeated him. It was done with data. Years of collecting data on the bad guys paid off. Month by month, the picture of the enemy became clearer. This was literally the case, with some of the intelligence software that created visual representations of what was known of the enemy, and how reliable it was. The picture was clear enough to maneuver key enemy factions into positions that make them easier to run down. Saddam's henchmen, the main enemy, were no dummies. They were smart enough, and resourceful enough, to build a police state apparatus that kept Saddam in power for over three decades. However, for the last three years, that talent has been applied to keeping the henchmen alive and out of jail. But three years of fighting has reduced the original 100,000 or so core Saddam thugs, to a few thousand diehards. Three years ago, there were hundreds of thousands of allies and supporters from the Sunni minority (then, about five million people, now, less than half that), who wanted to be back in charge. Now the remaining Sunni Arabs just want to be left in peace. Thus the Sunni nationalists of in the Baghdad suburbs are shooting at, and turning in, their old allies from Saddams Baath party and secret police. This isn't easy for some of these guys, but it's seen as a matter of survival. While the fighting in and around Baghdad is officially about rooting out al Qaeda, and hard core terrorists, it's also about taking down the Baath party bankers and organizers who have been sustaining the bombers with cash, information and encouragement. . . . Bin Laden's latest audio recording brought forth a furious reaction from many of his followers. The main complaint was that only excerpts of the message were being reported on by the Arab media, and that if the entire message were put out there, the excerpts would not appear so damaging. The excerpts concentrated on bin Laden admitting mistakes, criticizing al Qaeda operations in Iraq and urging Islamic radicals to get their act together. Al Qaeda is under a lot of pressure of late. In addition to defeat in Iraq, the organization is being battered in North Africa, South East Asia, Somalia, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Bin Laden has not got any good news to talk about, and that's what's really got his followers angry. |
| Posted by:Mike |
| #14 COMET HUGHES [THE SIZE OF THE MOON?]??? "BIN LADEN...how the Americans defeated him" - first off, Osama had long ago made it clear he & AL QAEDA/RADICAL ISLAM were not above "using any means necessary" to empower or enable the defeat of the USA-West [Anti-Americanism]; + two, Osama was always IRAN-CENTRIC vv OBLadenian = "Islamic/Islamist Apocalypse" & Islamic end-times beliefs. OSAMA HAS BEEN PARTIALLY SUCCESSFUL, DIRECTLY = INDIRECTLY ON THE FORMER, WHILE ON THE LATTER THE USA HAS NOT EVEN INVADED & OCCUPIED IRAN YET vv ISLAMIC/ISLAMIST APOCALYPSE. Again, I believe its premature to belabel Osama $ Spetzlamists as de facto permanently "defeated", including as for in Iraq, espec WHEN OSAMA'S OWN PERSONAL "ARMAGEDDON/APOCALYPSE" HAS NOT EVEN BEEN FOUGHT OR OCCURRED YET. IMO RADICS WILL LAUNCH A FINAL, LAST "DECISIVE CAMPAIGN/BATTLE" FOR IRAQ BEFORE RECONCENTRATING FOR A PERCEIVED, PRE-PLANNED/ ANTICIPATED? US ATTACK-INVASION ON IRAN. IMO as a loyal, dedic Muslim and Islamist, Osama will not want either Islam nor Radical Islamism associated wid DEFEAT = FAILURE > 'TIS WHY IRAN'S MULLAHS ARE WILLING TO USE NUKES-WMDS ON IRANIAN SOIL AGZ ANY US-ALLIED INVASION, becuz PERFECT ISLAM AS A DIVINE-INSPIRED RELIGION CANNOT LOSE ITS OWN APOCALYPSE/BATTLE OF ARMAGEDDON. Islamic-Islamist "END-TIMES" > The USA must be defeated iff not destroyed in Iran even it means the destruction + self-suicide of the entire Iranian nation = ME Region itself. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2007-10-28 21:32 |
| #13 Osama bin quoted outa context. Satan is breaking out his woolies. |
| Posted by: Thomas Woof 2007-10-28 13:36 |
| #12 Yup. And where the small worlds model for Al Q breaks down is where they attempt larger actions on a continued basis in some geographical area. Iraq is one such, another is their alliance with the heroin trade. But WRT individual ops such as 9/11, the model still holds IIUC. |
| Posted by: lotp 2007-10-28 13:35 |
| #11 His allies in the Democratic party will be devastated. |
| Posted by: DMFD 2007-10-28 13:33 |
| #10 emerging threats such as MS-13, which merge gang activity with increasingly terror-sympathetic activities. As well as self-funding through criminal activities. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2007-10-28 13:26 |
| #9 Basically, a terror network is a Small World network which has critical nodes that act as connections to other parts of the network. By deleting these nodes, you can quickly degrade the network. For an example, see Iraq. Just one caution: while this has been the network configuration of Al Qaeda, that is evolving in some places. And it doesn't apply to emerging threats such as MS-13, which merge gang activity with increasingly terror-sympathetic activities. |
| Posted by: lotp 2007-10-28 13:15 |
| #8 Of course the Donks will claim that an Iraqi victory is due to their actions. Even Harry Ried will claim, through some very twisted logic, that it was his 'the war is lost' proclamation which turned the tide. After all didn't he claim, and the mainstream report as fact, with a straight face that he was in on the Limbaugh letter auction all the time? The media will gleefully attribute any victories to the Democrats -- and at the same time give none to the military or the men in uniform. Except possibly in campaign slogans. |
| Posted by: CrazyFool 2007-10-28 11:48 |
| #7 Link. It's not hard, and it's not Belmont Club. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2007-10-28 11:44 |
| #6 we can't beat these networked terrorist organizations Wretched had a post on this topic over at Belmont Club just the other day (yeah, I'm to lazy to go find it). Basically, a terror network is a Small World network which has critical nodes that act as connections to other parts of the network. By deleting these nodes, you can quickly degrade the network. For an example, see Iraq. |
| Posted by: SteveS 2007-10-28 11:39 |
| #5 If Iraq becomes an undeniable success in the upcoming election year, then the democrats will claim credit for the turnaround. This will be based on the congress "forcing the president to change course". That is, of course if the democratic-aligned media ever report any successes. |
| Posted by: WTF 2007-10-28 09:58 |
| #4 How many of those civilians executed by (presumably) Shia militia - those thousands of bodies that turned up in dumps, or on the streets in the morning - were actually Saddam's thugs, being dealt with extra-legally, rather than 'simple' sectarian vengeance/cleansing? I have the feeling that although the executioners were often being rather careless about due diligence, the killings were not generally random sectarian murder. |
| Posted by: Glenmore 2007-10-28 09:58 |
| #3 How do we win in Iraq? You stay and fight, until there isn't anyone left that wants to fight you. Then you have won. It has taken 5 years and many billions of dollars so far, but I think even the Donk assholes in D.C. know this is happening, that's why they want to change the subject now whenever it comes up. |
| Posted by: bigjim-ky 2007-10-28 09:48 |
| #2 Three years ago, there were hundreds of thousands of allies and supporters from the Sunni minority (then, about five million people, now, less than half that), who wanted to be back in charge. Which suggests it was some equivalent of ethnic cleansing, as much as "information", that has resolved the problem. |
| Posted by: Excalibur 2007-10-28 08:56 |
| #1 A lot of "experts" have whimpered almost from the start that "we can't beat these networked terrorist organizations," and yet we are. Slice and dice, baby. Slice and dice... |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2007-10-28 08:52 |