Excerpted to remove NYT hand-wringing
There has been no equivalent surprise, though, in Iraqi politics, yet. If you see that — if you see Iraqi politicians surprising you by doing things they've never done before, like forging a self-sustaining political compromise and building the fabric of a unified country — then you can allow yourself some optimism.
So far, though, too many of Iraq's leaders continue to act their part — looking out for themselves, their clans, their hometowns, their militias and their sects, and using the Iraqi treasury and ministries as looting grounds for personal or sectarian gains. As a result, what you have today is more of a spotty truce, with U.S. soldiers still caught in the middle. That is a quiet strategy, not an exit strategy.
Study the travel itineraries of Iraq's principal factional leaders after the Petraeus hearings. Did they all rush to Baghdad to try to work out their differences? No. Many of them took off for abroad. As one U.S. official in Baghdad pointed out to me last week, "at no point" since the testimony by Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker "have you had the four key Iraqi leaders in the same country at the same time." They saw the hearings as buying them more time, and so they took it.
"We have created a real case of moral hazard in Iraq," said Marc Lynch, a Middle East specialist at George Washington University. "Because all the key players think the Americans are going to bail them out, they have no incentive to make any real concessions to one another." Indeed, I continue to believe that everyone has us where they want us in Iraq: We're holding up the floor for Iraqi politicians to do their endless tribal dance; we are bogged down and within missile range of Iran, so if we try to use any military force to disrupt Tehran's nuclear program we will pay a huge price; and as long as we are trapped in Iraq, we will never even think about promoting reform elsewhere in the Arab world.
There has been more local cross-sectarian dialogue lately, particularly between Shiite and Sunni elders. But that seems to be the limit of Iraqi politics. It still feels to me as if we've made Iraq just safe enough for its politicians to be obstinate, corrupt or reckless on our dime. Even the moderate Kurds must have developed some kind of death wish, allowing their radicals to simultaneously provoke both Turkey and Iran and risking the island of real decency the Kurds have built in the north.
Disregarding Friedman's pissing and moaning about the Iraqi quagmire, he does manage to highlight how Iraqi politicians are less than useless. We really need to consider forcibly disbanding their government and holding new elections. As Iraq's liberators, we have that right and it would send a clear moral signal to the MME (Muslim Middle East) that will will not tolerate the endless squabbling and corruption that passes for Arab "business as usual".