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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Israeli Overflight Mystery Deepens |
| 2007-09-17 |
| From StratFor newsletter (no link): This weekend, the mystery of the Israeli aircraft over northern Syria became more important and even less clear than it was before. We think that this raid or reconnaissance flight, or whatever it was, was important. It's importance was less about U.S.-Syrian relations than about Syrian-Turkish relations. That relationship has been critical to both countries for years. If the Syrians are actually storing anything sensitive along the Turkish-Syrian border, that would mean that the Syrians might have some sort of understanding with the Turks that would be extremely important for the region. For us, the location of the facility is more startling than the possibility of a North Korean shipment, chemical weapons or even a dry run for a strike on Tehran. Since when do the Syrians trust the Turks enough to do anything important along the border? Since when do the Israelis have to do reconnaissance flights along the border? The Turks patrol that area pretty intensely. We had thought there was a strong intelligence-sharing program. Perhaps it's no longer a trusted channel? Of course, the Turks somehow might have been complicit in this. The mystery is deep and we are baffled, but it does not strike us as trivial. Something important happened Sept. 6. |
| Posted by:Glenmore |
| #7 Stratfor has a cool name, but Ima thinkin they need to spend more money on buying clues. |
| Posted by: SteveS 2007-09-17 22:56 |
| #6 the IDF operation probably was assisted by the Turkish military (the officer corps are anti Syria, anti Persian, and anti Arab -- for now) |
| Posted by: mhw 2007-09-17 18:48 |
| #5 It's been all downhill for Stratfor since the war against Serbia. |
| Posted by: Classical_Liberal 2007-09-17 18:41 |
| #4 Compare and contrast this analysis with Stratfor's. |
| Posted by: Mike 2007-09-17 17:44 |
| #3 What Excalibur said. I'm continually impressed by how much some of the prominent members of the blogosphere are better an analysis than the overpaid "experts" at StratFor. "Wretchard" at the Belmont Club, the Instapundit, Jules Crittenden, Cap'n Ed, the Powerline crew, and many prominent citizens of beautiful downtown Rantburg--all superior to StratFor, and worthy to bat in the same league as the likes of James Dunnigan. |
| Posted by: Mike 2007-09-17 14:59 |
| #2 If the Syrians are actually storing anything sensitive along the Turkish-Syrian border, that would mean that the Syrians might have some sort of understanding with the Turks that would be extremely important for the region. Or it could mean the Turkish border is as far from Israel as it is possible to get and they Syrians - mistakenly - thought this would provide cover. For us, the location of the facility is more startling than the possibility of a North Korean shipment, chemical weapons or even a dry run for a strike on Tehran. Yes, because Stratfor apparently does not employ a brain trust with its analysts. A casual stroll through the internet reveals a Syrian chemical weapons production facility near the Turkish border at Al Safir that has been in operation since the 1970s. Hence the air defenses. That this should prove a surprise to Stratfor proves an inability to pay attention or an inability to conjure better analysis - even a better headline - than nine out of ten blogs on the subject. The only surprise to me is that people continue to pay for this level of analysis. |
| Posted by: Excalibur 2007-09-17 13:26 |
| #1 No mystery, the butler did it. "Mystery" means the MSM doesn't know what happened. |
| Posted by: JohnQC 2007-09-17 12:11 |