President Nicolas Sarkozy, ever-present, hyperactive, and riding high in the polls, appears to be heading for an overwhelming victory in the French parliamentary elections this month. According to the most recent poll, M. Sarkozy's centre-right party and its centrist allies could take as many as 430 of the 577 seats in the national assembly in the two-round election on 10 and 17 June.Such a tidal wave is not unprecedented. The right did even better in 1993. But an electoral landslide would place President Sarkozy in a commanding position - politically and morally - to force through his programme of social and economic reforms.
A parliament heavily tilted to the right might also be dangerous - not least for M. Sarkozy himself.
| The Independent can always find the black lining in a silver cloud. |
| Since that's exactly why he was elected ... |
| ... and an elected parliament ... |
The Socialists, the main opposition party, are forecast to win only 100 to 142 seats. They hope that M. Sarkozy's "in-your-face" style could still help them to mobilise the one in three French voters who cannot stomach the new President. The Socialist campaign has failed to make much impact so far. Grass-roots party workers are exhausted and demoralised after M. Sarkozy's presidential victory on 6 May. Party leaders, including the defeated candidate Ségolène Royal, have been squabbling over who should emerge as the de facto "leader of the opposition" and 2012 presidential candidate in waiting.
The parliamentary campaign is also proving disastrous for the centrist leader, François Bayrou. Emboldened by his 18 per cent score in the first round of the presidential elections, M. Bayrou has dissolved his old UDF party, which was traditionally allied with M. Sarkozy's centre-right. He has created a new Mouvement Démocrate, which has refused all electoral deals with the Sarkozy camp. All but a handful of M. Bayrou's 29 sitting deputies have broken ranks and created another party, the Nouveau Centre, which is little more than an adjunct of M. Sarkozy's UMP. As a result, M. Bayrou's party is forecast to take only 10 per cent of the vote in the first round of the parliamentary elections on Sunday week. He is projected to win at most six seats in the new national assembly - and conceivably none.