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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Tehran in No Mood for Compromise |
| 2007-04-23 |
| By Ian Bremmer As Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad waved goodbye earlier this month to the 15 British sailors and marines his government held prisoner for almost two weeks, many around the world breathed a sigh of relief. Any easing of international tensions over Iran is welcome. But the respite is likely to be short-lived. In fact, the Iranian-British standoff and its resolution reveal several reasons why the conflict over the country's nuclear program is set for further escalation. First, Tehran released the British troops because it had achieved its political goals, not as a concession to international pressure. Iran's main foreign-policy motivation in seizing the sailors was to express defiance in the face of the latest Security Council resolution over its uranium enrichment program. When Tehran was offered a face-saving opportunity to suggest the British were arrested following an honest misunderstanding, it refused. The Iranians further upped the ante by broadcasting coerced "confessions" from their captives that Britain had been entirely at fault. |
| Posted by:ryuge |
| #8 Old Patriot, with each passing, and increasingly disappointing day, I find it evermore difficult to disagree with your sentiments. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2007-04-23 23:56 |
| #7 It's going to take a few nukes to put an end to Tehran's meddling in the affairs of others. Whether they're ours or Israel's is immaterial. One should hit Bandar Abbas, one Bushehr, one Abadan, one Khark Island, and one Qom (four tactical, one strategic). Of course, if one just "happened" to go off-course and smack Riyadh, I wouldn't complain... |
| Posted by: Old Patriot 2007-04-23 22:28 |
| #6 There is no conclusive evidence that Iran = Radical Iran will give up ambitions to eventually possess nuke weapons - THC, various Netters are arguing that Iran may already possess tactical nuclear warheads as per its TLCM purchases [e.g. CLUB, MOSKIT, new SIZZLER, etc] + "Suitcase/Mini nukes". The RUSSIANS themselves may like to PC argue agz America that Iran has a right to domestic nuclear energy but deep down THE RUSSIANS KNOW IRAN WANTS NUKE WEAPONS + LR MISSLES. MOSNEWS > RUSSIA > $$$ PAYMENTS BY IRAN FOR ASST IN CONSTRUX OF BUSHESHR NUKE PLANT ISN'T ENUFFF as far as Russia is concerned. RUSSIA KNOWS THE IRANIAN-ISLAMIST BOMB [POPULATION + NUKE] ALSO POINTS AT THEM. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2007-04-23 21:56 |
| #5 I cannot see how General Petraeus can succeed in Iraq when Iranian assets are pushing the booming along in Baghdad with agents, weapons, etc. Iran will stop if the MMs get hurt by their dirty little business. So far, Iran has had very little conesquences for bad behavior in Iraq. We cannot win a defensive war. If I was an Iranian planner, I would feel like I was on a roll. All I have to do is to cause trouble and play to Congressional traitors like Harry Reid, who will do the rest for me. |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2007-04-23 18:18 |
| #4 Yeah, the Iranians are in a recalcitrant mood. But it doesn't take a think-tank scholar to figure out why: they look at the West and they're no longer afraid. They nabbed a batch of hostages last month to see what sort of stuff Britain was made of these days. They found out, and fast. And what do they see when they look our way-- especially in light of the defeatist crap they hear from our Democrats and our media establishment day in and day out? A nation that appears to be desperately weary of war and a President who has tired, is faltering, and looks about to fail. Frankly, I'd be gobsmacked to find out that they see any need for compromise whatsoever. I find this especially sad right now, as I'm going through the Rantburg archives collecting articles which trace the political trajectory of this war; I started at the beginning, and what I'm reading right now is stuff from the last couple of months before we invaded Iraq. At that time, in the run-up to the invasion, many of us here seemed convinced the Mad Mullahs had but months to live before they ended up swinging from lampposts in downtown Tehran. The Iranian student rebellion was in full swing. And the Mullahs themselves were quite obviously in a panic over the possibility of US military action, shrieking anti-American epithets and threats of Dire Revenge™ by the hour with a ferocity that must have made Kim Jong-Il green with envy. And then what did we end up doing? Nothing. Four solid years of NOTHING. So I'm not surprized they don't want to play nice; nothing has happened to make them feel they need to-- and much that reinforces their view that they don't. |
| Posted by: Dave D. 2007-04-23 18:00 |
| #3 And I'm in no mood for Tehran. Or, to put it another way, I'm in the mood for no more Tehran. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2007-04-23 14:20 |
| #2 I wonder why? |
| Posted by: gromgoru 2007-04-23 12:03 |
| #1 Neither am I. |
| Posted by: Brett 2007-04-23 10:57 |