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Israel-Palestine-Jordan |
Analysis: Don't underestimate Syria's military |
2007-04-13 |
While the Knesset heard about potential scenarios for reaching peace with Damascus on Thursday, senior defense officials warned of an unprecedented military buildup in Syria and said that prevailing in a war with Israel's northeastern neighbor would not be as simple as some might have been led to believe. Syria has emphasized missile development in recent months. According to Western sources, Syria has the ability to independently manufacture Scud missiles, and it has 300 of them deployed just north of the demilitarized zone in the Syrian part of the Golan Heights. A division of some 10,000 troops is responsible for operating the missiles, which include an small number of Scud D's with a range of 700 kilometers and said to be capable of carrying nonconventional warheads. Syria has close to 30 launchers for its Scud missiles, according to foreign sources. Syria keeps the projectiles in bunkers at several locations; most are in a valley near Hama, where it has built a "Syria saw the difficulty the IDF had during the fighting inside the southern Lebanese villages and now the military there wants to draw us - in the event of a war - into battles in built-up areas where they think they will have the upper hand, "Syria was impressed by Hizbullah's strategic success, with its use of small rockets and Israel's inability to neutralize them," Shapir said. "This is a weapon that is not traditionally used in conventional wars, but can be." The solution is simple: Announce that if Syria launches these weapons with WMD, or into population centers (i.e. terror), then we will destroy all airports, aircraft, electricity distribution and generation, military bases, any factory over 10000sq ft, and the city of Damascus will be seized and sacked, where we will recover the head of the Jew known as John the Baptist. After that, we might get aggressive. Got it? Both militaries have raised their level of alert along the border and while the IDF has increased its presence on the Golan Heights - mostly with troops who are training - the Syrians have also moved units as well as military infrastructure In satellite images broadcast this week on CBN News in the US, reporter Chris Mitchell revealed Syria's three major missile sites And the corollary is: An IAF strike would reduce the entire valley and all of it's contents in ruins if there was an Israeli leader with any balls. Another missile site near Homs contains a previously undisclosed chemical warhead facility where a drive-through building leads to a facility where warheads are installed on ballistic missiles. These images do not necessarily indicate that Syria plans to attack Israel, but they do send a clear message to the IDF and the Israeli leadership: |
Posted by:Brett |
#24 Also, remember that the last time the Syrians and Israelis mixed it up in the air, the kill ratio was 88:0 in favor of Israel. Also, review the 1973 War in Golan Heights where the Syrians had complete operational surprise and the advantage of the Saggers {back when they were something new} : the Israelis lost a number of tanks but destroyed entire Syrian brigades. |
Posted by: Shieldwolf 2007-04-13 20:32 |
#23 Nukes screw up the equation for everyone. I do believe that Tel Aviv would be more inclined to use nukes today than they ever have been in the past. Damascus, Homs, Latakia, Aleppo, and Hama are all within range of Israeli F-16s. Syria has some aging SA-5 antiaircraft weapons, but they don't work very well against low-flying (terrain hugging) aircraft. The SA-5 was initially developed to target the B-70 high-altitude bomber, and to TRY to curtail the activities of the SR-71. We never deployed the B-70, and the SA-5 was totally ineffective against the SR-71. No army that doesn't have air cover can prevail against one that does. The Israelis will destroy the Syrian air force, while remaining capable of inflicting heavy damage against Syrian positions. Using the Israeli incusion into Lebanon as a starting point is going to prove very disasterous for the Syrians, if they try it. |
Posted by: Old Patriot 2007-04-13 17:56 |
#22 tw + math = charming fun |
Posted by: RD 2007-04-13 15:54 |
#21 the syrians were better in '73 than they were in '67, so it would be kinda silly to judge them in 2007 by 1967. In any case, we're not talking about Syrian troops going into maneuvers, but fighting from fixed positions, which is, IIUC, easier for less well trained troops. I have no doubt the IDF would have an easier time of it than in Lebanon - the different political situation would mean air power could be used with less restraint, theyd probably commit large numbers of infantry sooner, and their infantry is more experienced. and theres more room to use armor. But it could still be difficult - there are still limits on how successful air power will be, and there will probably still be limited time before a UNSC imposed ceasefire. Its not at all silly for the IDF to prepare for the worst. |
Posted by: liberalhawk 2007-04-13 15:50 |
#20 TW, that would be 33 and one third per missle. Math, why does it hate women ? In my case, wxjames, it's because math majors can't do arithmetic. We deal (ok, dealt -- it was long ago and far away) in higher concepts than actual real numbers. I can't do tax returns, either. That's one of the many reasons I married and engineer. ;-) Thanks everyone for the corrections and explanations. Chained to the cannon? Oh my. |
Posted by: trailing wife 2007-04-13 15:27 |
#19 correct, because during the 6 day war the Israelis found syrian soldiers chained to their cannons or whatever they were using at that time |
Posted by: Spuse the Elder7296 2007-04-13 15:16 |
#18 TW, Even at 33 & 1/3rd men per missile, the order of battle breaks down like this: 1 senior NCO or Junior Officer to command the launcher/transporter 1 Crew Chief 3 Crew Members 28 & 1/3 to guard the other five guys Mike |
Posted by: Mike Kozlowski 2007-04-13 14:04 |
#17 #1 Hell no! They might crash and burn even better than Saddam's!!! Posted by: Zenster 2007-04-13 00:52 I say they crash like Saddam's because they were Saddam's. |
Posted by: kilowattkid 2007-04-13 13:01 |
#16 "In satellite images broadcast this week on CBN News in the US, reporter Chris Mitchell revealed Syria's three major missile sites." What the...Satellite images from the 700 club? Whoaa...ole Pat Robertson is truley a force to be reckoned with now. Not only is he goin high-tech he still has that whole pipeline to god thingey when the sats aren't in posisiton. |
Posted by: DepotGuy 2007-04-13 12:53 |
#15 TW, that would be 33 and one third per missle. Math, why does it hate women ? |
Posted by: wxjames 2007-04-13 12:28 |
#14 Including the Syrian barracks that were in Lebanon? |
Posted by: mrp 2007-04-13 12:11 |
#13 Not only do I agree with Sinse, but would also point out that the Israelis now have troops that have actually fought. The Syrian army hasn't been out of its barracks for over 30 years. |
Posted by: DoDo 2007-04-13 11:56 |
#12 On the other hand, don't overestimate Syria's Military. After all they've fought through proxies for decades since they had their butts handed to them by the Israelis. |
Posted by: rjschwarz 2007-04-13 11:52 |
#11 Why are 10,000 troops responsible for "operating" 300 Scud missiles? If I carried the 1 correctly each time, isn't that 333 1/3rd troops per missile? How do they keep from banging into one another, knocking elbows into switches at inopportune moments, joggling fingers setting coordinates? It's nice of the Jerusalem Post to share this information, though -- now Avi and Yossi will be prepared when they're called up to aim the Israeli response... Didn't we give Israel bunker-buster missiles last spring? |
Posted by: trailing wife 2007-04-13 11:46 |
#10 i still don't understand how every news coverage acts like the IDF had their asses handed too them in lebanon.they lost some soldiers that etnds too happen in war. how many of hezbollah where killed that was never mentioned was it? |
Posted by: sinse 2007-04-13 10:46 |
#9 Syria v. Israel is the military equivalent of a college football game between Duke & Florida. |
Posted by: Raj 2007-04-13 08:27 |
#8 They may have a large, and even well-equipped military - but how well-trained is it? A gun is only as good as the trigger-puller, and that is a function of practice. Same rules apply to Scuds as .22's. |
Posted by: Glenmore 2007-04-13 07:39 |
#7 I did it for the children.(TM) |
Posted by: Nancy Pelousy 2007-04-13 06:36 |
#6 What say you, pelosi? |
Posted by: newc 2007-04-13 06:13 |
#5 Probably to take the heat off of Iran when the time comes. |
Posted by: gorb 2007-04-13 04:16 |
#4 In short, Syria is preparing to wage a terrorist war writen large against Israeli civilians, while serenly confident thet Israel will (be forced to) stick to conventional rules of war. |
Posted by: gromgoru 2007-04-13 04:10 |
#3 Whatever the situation, it's all thanks to Iran. |
Posted by: gorb 2007-04-13 03:55 |
#2 ASIA TIMES > BACK DOOR TO DAMASCUS. Claims Dubya may had PDeniably used Nancy for discreet, politically highly sensitive diplomacy vv ASSAD + other politicos. OTOH, SAUDI ARABIA > Nancy's visit a test of future ALTERNATE PRESIDENCY???; + WND.com > DEFECTOR - Radical Iran has URANIUM for nuke bombs, + Alabama City PREPPING LOCAL CIVIL DEFENSE FOR WMD-NUCLEAR TERROR. |
Posted by: JosephMendiola 2007-04-13 02:26 |
#1 Hell no! They might crash and burn even better than Saddam's!!! |
Posted by: Zenster 2007-04-13 00:52 |