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| Iraq |
| Iraq Polling Shows Things Are Better |
| 2007-03-18 |
| March 07 - Despite violence only 26% preferred life under Saddam One in four (26%) Iraqi adults have had a family relative murdered in the last three years, while 23% of those living in Baghdad have had a family/relative kidnapped in the last three years. These are the findings released today from the largest poll into Iraqi opinion ever to be published. Carried out by UK polling firm O.R.B., which has been tracking public opinion in Iraq since 2005, the poll shows that despite the horrendous personal security problems only 26% of the country preferred life under the previous regime of Saddam Hussein, with 49% preferring life under the current political regime of Noori al-Maliki. As one may expect, it is the Sunnis who are most likely to back the previous regime (51%) with the Shias (66%) preferring the current administration. Carried out amongst a nationally representative sample of 5,019 Iraqi adults aged 18yrs+ and coming just days before the fourth anniversary of the invasion of Iraq, the poll reveals that despite the rising number of civilian deaths each month as a result of militia activity, only 27% would concede that their country is actually in a state of civil war. Opinion here is clearly divided, as 22% feel “we are close to a state of civil war but not yet in one” while 18% argue that the country is “still some way from civil war”. Regionally, 43% of those in the Shia dominated South of the country claim “Iraq will never get as far as civil war”. This figure in the Sunni dominated north plummets to 5% where most (42%) feel the country is already in a state of civil war. Regionally there are significant differences on attitudes towards the relationship between the security situation and the presence of troops. Nationally, one in two (53%) feels that the security situation in Iraq will get better in the immediate weeks following a withdrawal of Multi National Forces. However, those in the South appear to be more ready to accept a gradual withdrawal than those in the North. 69% of the Shia dominated South feel the situation will get a great deal/little better, while only 10% feel it will get worse. In the Sunni north, opinion is evenly divided – 46% feel it will get better and 37% feel it will get worse. What about talk of creating a federal Iraq? With the exception of the Kurdish population in the North of the country, a majority support Iraq remaining as a single country run by a central national government. On this point Sunnis (57%) and Shias (69%) agree that the country should continue as one nation. |
| Posted by:Chuck Simmins |
| #1 Baghdad is the problem, and attacks are decreasing. That conflict began when Sunnis began bombing Shiites. Shiites responded with ethnic cleansing, and few Sunnis live north of the Tigris River. The real mess started when Shiite forces began a slow advance to Baghdad Airport. Frankly, I would shift the bulk of US operations to the south of the river. If that area was relatively pacified, then the Iraq Army could target the al-Sadrites. However, US troops have been directed to protect Sunni pockets in the north. It doesn't make strategic sense to me. It could be a recipe for cleansing Sunnis from the entire city. |
| Posted by: Sneaze 2007-03-18 00:57 |