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| Africa Subsaharan |
| Analysis: Mugabe's final days may be upon us |
| 2007-03-13 |
| At long last, President Robert Mugabe's stranglehold on Zimbabwe may be loosening. Throughout his 27 years of dominance, the old dictator's opponents have always risked assault, torture or worse. The bludgeoning meted out to Morgan Tsvangirai, the opposition leader, and about 100 of his supporters after they tried to hold a prayer meeting on Sunday was entirely standard. Violence of this kind has been enough to suppress Mr Mugabe's critics outside the ruling Zanu-PF party. Meanwhile, his skilful manipulation of factions within the ruling party has always thwarted any internal challenge. But there are growing signs that Mr Mugabe is finally losing his grip. Never in its 44 year history has Zanu-PF been as divided as it is today. Mr Mugabe appears to be in a state of open warfare with both his party's main factions. One is led by Solomon Mujuru, a retired general and former army commander who wants his wife, the vice-president Joyce Mujuru, to succeed Mr Mugabe. The other major faction is dominated by Emmerson Mnangagwa, who has served in the cabinet since 1980 and was once a favourite for the succession but had a spectacular falling out with the president. In the past, Mr Mugabe would always have been clever enough to ally with one faction against the other. At the very least, he would have turned them against one another and kept each permanently off-balance. But today, both the Mujuru and Mnangagwa groups appear to have united against him. There is no other explanation for Mr Mugabe's apparent failure to extend his term of office. Last year, he announced that he would not bother seeking re-election when his present term ends in 2008. Instead, he would simply amend the constitution and postpone the next election until 2010. But this proposal seems to have been dropped. Both major factions have an interest in Mr Mugabe stepping down next year and opening the way for their champions to seize the presidency. They appear to have jointly thwarted the bid to rewrite the constitution. Having been defeated, Mr Mugabe is now talking about standing for re-election next year. Two factors are eroding Mr Mugabe's position every day. First, he is 83 and his mental powers are visibly failing. While physically fit, the edge has come off Mr Mugabe's mind. Second, Zimbabwe's economy is in meltdown. At first, this national calamity did not threaten his grip on power. On the contrary, by driving the black middle class out of Zimbabwe and leaving the rest of the population destitute and with no thought except day-to-day survival, economic collapse probably reduced the chances of popular unrest and helped Mr Mugabe. But the crisis is reaching such proportions that the Zimbabwean state itself is disintegrating. Mr Mugabe can no longer afford to pay his security forces. The police and the army rank-and-file are just as desperate as everyone else. This combination of discontent within and without Zanu-PF is unprecedented. Mr Mugabe's final days may be upon us. I'll believe it when I see it. |
| Posted by:tu3031 |
| #6 A see a jet, a GulfStream, landing, boarding 4 folks and a trunk. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2007-03-13 19:30 |
| #5 Rhodesia was a country that once had promise of a decent life for all its people. Zimbabwe's primary use these days is as an example to those people who think colonialism was a bad thing. Twenty-seven years after Lancaster House it looks like they've finally come to the end of the road with Bad Bob. It would have been much, much better for all concerned if one of the Selous Scouts could have gotten within sniping range of that bastard and taken him out. I guess it doesn't matter now. They wanted Bob and they got him. They're not happy about it but that's too bad. You can choose your actions; you just can't choose the consequences. |
| Posted by: Mac 2007-03-13 18:38 |
| #4 LH, Rhodesia was proposed as a Province for sports purposes, but never was part of South Africa, separate country, own ID, although SAP were in Rhodesia 1972. Rhodes achieved a major part of his dream, which was Cape to Cairo, with the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland, given away. |
| Posted by: rhodesiafever 2007-03-13 17:20 |
| #3 Coming on top of recent reports of soldiers shooting their horses at Nkomo Barracks, and taking their weapons off to RSA for security work, along with the soldier who ripped a mag at State House, Bob is lucky to be room temperature. All is not well. If, as mooted, all the elections go ahead next year, 2008, foresee a free-for-all, as the latest crack-down on the MDC unite ZANU-PF/ANC rule, then they can fight amongst themselves. Called electioneering, Zimbabwe-style. Me, I just want that UN-Peace Franchise-Thing, ok? |
| Posted by: rhodesiafever 2007-03-13 17:07 |
| #2 wasnt cecil Rhodes' dream to incorporate Rhodesia into South Africa? Would this perhaps be a time to achieve that, though in a fashion Rhodes would never have envisioned? |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2007-03-13 16:59 |
| #1 The basic problem is that no one on the African continent can put Humpty Dumpty back together again. |
| Posted by: RWV 2007-03-13 16:44 |