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Home Front Economy
Crude tumbles as Saudis play down output cut
2007-01-17
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures closed with a more than 3% loss Tuesday after Saudi Arabia's oil minister said major oil producers need not cut production further, disappointing hopes that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would intervene to prop up prices.

Crude for February delivery closed down $1.78, or 3.4%, at $51.21 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract struck a 20-month intraday low of $50.55.
A big chunk of OPEC oil costs less than $10 a barrel to pump and deliver. Another big chunk runs under $20 a barrel. Can't really expect $60 prices to continue.
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters at an oil conference in India that the market is "significantly healthier" now than it was in October, when OPEC agreed to cut output by 1.2 million barrels a day, Dow Jones Newswires reported.

OPEC decided on a second output cut at a meeting in December but deferred that cut --another 500,000 barrels a day -- until February. Data suggest, however, that individual OPEC members have been lax in implementing the agreed-on cuts, further weighing on oil prices.
"Certainly the prospect of colder weather and short-covering prompted some buying last Friday," John Kilduff, an analyst at Fimat USA, said in a note to clients. And "al-Naimi's comments that OPEC's current measures are 'working well' and that there is 'no need to panic' are just as certainly working on sellers ... as well."

But "OPEC will probably still come forth with some action or at least some lip service to stem the slide in prices," he said. Meanwhile, the presidents of Venezuela and Iran both called for a coordinated effort by OPEC to reduce the amount of oil on the market.
Oh that will work well.
Posted by:Steve White

#5  This fall in oil prices may be related to events about to befall Iranian oil production in the very near future...
Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418   2007-01-17 20:02  

#4  "Iran desperately needs oil revenue. Chavez and Ahmadinejad are touring the world announcing anti-American initiatives and kicking out foreign investors because in the past these were good ways to rile up the oil markets.
The world is awash in oil right now. Saudi Arabia intends to collapse the price and cause a great deal of damage to their enemies in Iran, and they won't have to fire a shot. As a bonus, Chavez in Venezuela will also be gravely damaged. I believe this is all political strategy, and I believe the Bush Administration is coordinating it with the Saudis to eliminate two threats at once."
Lou Minatti

Posted by: Deacon Blues   2007-01-17 16:25  

#3  Except that oil has a very high price elasticity. Cut total production and the price of the remaining oil is greater than the total before.
Posted by: ed   2007-01-17 10:08  

#2  Right, big-jim. A lot of oil producers are cash flow guys. They need the flow of money to keep themselves propped up, whatever the price of oil. They have little cash reserves.
Posted by: Alaska Paul   2007-01-17 09:57  

#1  I don't believe that the can cut production. I think they have come to rely so heavily on their oil money that they have forsaken every other industry in their countries. Except missiles and terror of course.
Posted by: bigjim-ky   2007-01-17 07:52  

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